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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 30, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Waller County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 SeptemberNo new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Very unsettled North; mostly dry elsewhere. As the upper-level Low now over the Ohio Valley lifts north this weekend ... and the mature frontal system at the surface moves with it ... widespread rain and showers in the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes / mid-Atlantic / Northeast on Friday will lessen from south to north and become more scattered in nature. Most of the central and southern U.S. will be dry. Highs generally from the 60s to 80s, lows in the 50s and 60s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Significant late-season episode underway. As occurred during midweek, transport events in the North tend toward the west and southwest, and those elsewhere move near-source / east / north, with this trend transitioning by Sunday as the weather features change. Favorable conditions for epidemic spread will be found in the northeastern quarter of the U.S. and southern Canada, persisting through the weekend despite the coming changes.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 30

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern IL, western and west-central KY, IN, lower MI, OH, southern ON, central and southern NY, PA, southern VT and NH, CT, RI, western MA, Long Island, NJ, DE, MD, the eastern half of VA, and eastern NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central and eastern KY, northern NY, northwest VT, southern FL, and northeast SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 1

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern IL, KY, IN, lower MI, OH, southern ON, PA except the southwest, central and southern NY, western MA, CT, Long Island, NJ, MD, DE, far eastern VA. Moderate Risk in northern NY and western NY. Low risk for cucurbits in southeast WI, southeast VA, the eastern 1/2 of NC, and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern MI, southern ON, northern and eastern OH, central and southern NY, PA, southern VT, western MA, CT, Long Island, and central and northern NJ. Moderate Risk in northern NY, western VT, southern NJ, De, eastern MD, and extreme eastern VA. Low risk for cucurbits in southern FL, northern IN, western and southern OH, and eastern KY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016