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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 29, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 JulyNew reports from ON, PA, and NJ. CDM has been confirmed in Norfolk County, ON; Delaware County, PA; and Hunterdon County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 25 July: First report from New York. New reports from OH and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Cattaraugus County, NY; Medina County, OH; and Arenac and Midland Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Variable summer weather. A front that stretches from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley / Northeast will dance around these same regions for the next several days. Showers are possible in many areas to one degree or another, driven by daytime heating and waves of low pressure moving along the front. Rain is most likely in the Northeast / upper mid-Atlantic into the mid-South. Highs in the 80s and 90s with some 70s North. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the upper mid-Atlantic / Great Lakes. Transport events from the more southern sources tend to move near-source or east / NE; those coming out of the more northern sources are generally tracking near-source and/or to the west. Conditions surrounding the various events support higher risks across the northern areas, especially Saturday and Sunday. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 29

Moderate Risk in western NY, northwest PA, northeast KY, OH, southern ON, lower MI, northern IN, northern IL, and southeast WI. Low Risk for cucurbits in NJ, southeast PA, eastern MD, DE, southeast AL, southern GA, northern FL, and far southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 30

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern NJ, PA, western NY, southern ON, northern OH, far northern IN, and lower MI. Moderate Risk in southern NJ, DE, MD, northern and western VA, central and southern WV, and east-central and eastern KY. Low risk for cucurbits in southern upper MI, eastern 1/2 of WI, northern IL, southeast VA, eastern 1/2 of NC and SC, southern GA, southeast AL, northern FL, and far southern FL . Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 31

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in DE, MD, northern VA, NJ, PA, and western NY. Moderate Risk in northeast OH, eastern KY, southern OH, western WV, central and eastern VA, and the eastern 1/2 of NC. Low risk for cucurbits in eastern SC, southern GA, southeast AL, northern FL, and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016