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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 27, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Marion County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 20 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Alachua County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Unsettled south-central U.S. and Atlantic coast; mostly dry in between. Moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico will continue to produce showers in the south-central U.S., with the heaviest rain expected today. The Southeast, mostly dry on Friday, comes under increasing influence of a system developing north of the Bahamas. Showers and/or rain will occur from the Carolinas / eastern GA through FL Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible, mainly near the sources.  Transport events move a variety of directions over the next several days. Friday's event from southern TX is notable in that it heads northeast, though conditions are only slightly favorable. Mixed conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday in southern FL; events from there shouldn't impact other areas. It appears at this time that effect of any tropical or sub-tropical low approaching the Southeast coast will be limited for this forecast period. Sunday's events out of GA and northern FL are anticipated to track generally southeast under slightly favorable conditions for epidemic spread. That may change early next week.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 27

Low Risk to southern TX and far southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 28

Moderate Risk in southern FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern FL and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 29

Moderate Risk in southern FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in southern GA, northern and north-central FL, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016