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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 21, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 July: New reports from OH and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Henry County, OH; and Wicomico County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 July: New reports from NJ, PA, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Hunterdon County, NJ; Lancaster County, PA; and Dutchess County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled North; showers possible South. The frontal system strung out over the northern areas remains there through the weekend. Clouds and showers will be prevalent in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the south, expect mid-summer weather with mostly dry conditions interspersed with areas that may see scattered showers. The better chances of rain will be nearer the Gulf Coast. Hot with highs in the 80s Great Lakes to 90s elsewhere. Lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Great Lakes / Northeast and part of FL. Each day, nearly all transport events move near-source and/or east to northeast. Initially less-favorable conditions across the northern U.S. / southern Canada become much more favorable Saturday and Sunday. Daily conditions for the transport events south of the wavy front will be changeable. Generally, the better chances for epidemic spread will be more toward the deep South states. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 21

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk on the FL peninsula, and in southwest GA, southern AL, and southwest MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in west-central AL and western NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern MI, southern ON, northern OH, western NY, and western and central PA. Moderate Risk in central and southeast NY, eastern PA, NJ, western CT, Long Island, the NC mountains, FL, southwest GA, central and southern AL, MS, southeast AR, and the eastern 1/2 of LA. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern MD, DE, eastern CT, MA, and RI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 23

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in western and southern NY, central and eastern PA, NJ, and northern DE. Moderate Risk in southern ON, eastern MI, northern OH, western PA, the NC mountains, southern MS, central and southern AL, southern GA, and FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central TX, central GA, SC, NC except the mountains, southeast VA, and southern DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017