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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 23, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 September: First report from IA. New reports from AL and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Johnson County, IA; Houston County, AL; and Beaufort County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Active weather. The main weather features are high pressure moving across southern Canada and 2 frontal systems that are wavering around / moving into eastern North America. The wettest weather occurs in an arc from the lower MS Valley northeastward into the mid-Atlantic. The driest will be in parts of the Southeast. Highs from the 60s to 80s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely from the central Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic. A late season period of active weather is producing favorable conditions for survivable transport and effective deposition of airborne spores in many areas. Transport events trend more toward the north and northeast as days pass and the weather features change orientation.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 23

HIGH Risk for western AL, MS, northeast LA, the western 1/2 of TN, KY, far southern OH, northern and central WV, far southern PA, southern NJ, MD, and DE. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast WV, southwest VA, eastern 1/2 of TN, far western NC, northwest and southwest GA, eastern AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk for central GA, western SC, western NC, central and eastern VA, central PA, and south-central OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 24

HIGH Risk for NJ, DE, MD, southern PA, WV, northern / central / southwest VA, southern OH, southern IN, KY, far southern OH, TN, far western NC, northern GA, AL, the FL panhandle, MS, and northeast LA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southwest VA, and central and southern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern SC, NC except the far west, southern VA, Long Island, CT, western MA, central and southern NY, northern PA, southern ON, central and northern OH, lower MI, central and northern IN, southern WI, eastern and northern IL, and eastenr IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, September 25

HIGH Risk for western and northern AL, MS, northeast LA, TN, KY, southern IN and OH, southwest VA, WV, southern PA, MD, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, western and central GA, western SC and NC, central VA, and southern MD. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, southeast VA, New England except ME, central and northern NJ, NY, central and northern PA, southern ON, central and northern OH and IN, lower MI, northern and eastern IL, southern WI, and eastern IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018