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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 23, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 23 August: First report from OH. New reports from VA and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Wayne County, OH; Albemarle County, VA; and Rowan County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 August: First reports from KY and WI; New reports from DE, MA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Pulaski County, KY; Vernon County, WI; New Castle County, DE; Franklin County, MA; and Calhoun, Saginaw, Ingham, and Kalamazoo Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather southern and central states; drying in the North. The unusual weather pattern for late August continues. The cold front now in the mid-Atlantic / southern Ohio valley moves into the South over the weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will occur near and ahead of the front and northwestward through the central U.S.. Meanwhile, high pressure rolling across the North builds in behind the front. Areas around the Great lakes and Northeast will dry out. Highs in the 80s to low 100s South and Central, 70s and 80s elsewhere north of the front. Lows follow suit with those readings in the 60s and 70s South and Central, 50s and 60s otherwise.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely most areas. Conditions are favorable for survivable transport and effective deposition of airborne CDM spores for transport events coming out of sources in the South, mid-Atlantic (including the southern Appalachians), and Northeast (on Friday). Events are moving differently this weekend. Most are being controlled by circulation around the high pressure to the North, curving them to the southwest, west, or northwest. Cloudiness and rain north of the front, in combination with the winds, may result in epidemic spread to new areas in the TN Valley / southern Ohio Valley.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 23

HIGH Risk for central and southern Alabama, the western FL panhandle, eastern KY and TN, western and northeast NC, southern WV, VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, Long Island, southeast NY, and southern New England. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southeast NC, SC, and central GA. Low Risk in southern GA, and FL except the western panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 24

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, AL, GA but the southeast, eastern TN, far southwest VA, SC, and NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast VA. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, southeast GA, central and northwest MO, and northeast KS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 25

HIGH Risk in eastern MS, the FL panhandle, AL, GA, eastern and south-central TN, SC, far southwest VA, and all but north-central NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central KY, central and northwest MO, and southwest IA. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, north-central and western TN, western KY, southwest IN, north-central NC, southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, NJ, southern CT, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019