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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, June 21, 2017

*** Epidemic Update - 21 June: First report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Baldwin County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Sampson and Franklin Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Very unsettled weather. The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico became Tropical Storm Cindy on Tuesday. Cindy will move ashore near the tX / LA border tonight. A dissipating statioary front lies over the northern sections of the South, and high pressure sits to the east. Very heavy rain will fall from east TX to AL. Scattered to numerous showers are anticipated for the south-Atlantic states. Mostly dry weather west of east TX. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows mostly 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the southern U.S. east of the MS River. Transport events on Wednesday move northwest from FL and GA (influenced by Cindy), near-source and east from the Carolinas. Favorable to highly favorable conditions are occuring over much of the South. Although there will be appreciable washout , transport and deposition into the heart of the lower MS Valley may occur. Thursday's transport events will still be influenced by the circulation around Cindy, but the directions will be more northerly. Epidemic spread will be quite likely in the Southeast and possible for many areas to the north and/or west.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, June 21

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, eastern MS, AL, GA, central and eastern SC, and eastern NC. Low Risk in western TN, eastern AR, northeast LA, and western MS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, June 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern MS, most of AL, central and northern GA, far southwest NC, and the Savannah River counties of SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast VA, east-central and eastern NC, almost all of SC, southern GA, FL, and southeast AL. Low Risk for northern MS, far northern AL, TN, southern KY, southwest VA, west-central and western NC, and part of southeast TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017