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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 12, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: New report from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from RI; new reports from SC, PA, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Washington County, RI; Aiken and Newberry Counties, SC; Chester County, PA; and Cecil County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Active weather North; mostly dry with some showers South. Two frontal systems ... one in the central U.S. and one in southeast Canada ... combine to usher in a period of increasingly wet weather. Rain and showers fall in the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley today and will expand into the Northeast on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers are possible elsewhere. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with some 70s/50s far North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely near the MI source and in the Northeast. Another day of unfavorable conditions for most transport events on Monday with the notable exception of the MI event. Conditions deteriorate on Tuesday ahead of the approaching fronts with the most favorable conditions in the Northeast and slightly favorable to mixed conditions southwestward through the mid-Atlantic and in parts of the Southeast. The timing is such that the MI event will also have favorable conditions on Tuesday. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 12

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern AL, southwest GA, southwest MI, and northern IN. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in east-central AL, most of central and northern GA, and the NC mountains. Low Risk on the FL peninsula, and in east-central IN, northwest OH, parts of south-central and southern MI, southern SC, far southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 13

HIGH Risk for southwest MI, northern IN, northeast MD, northern DE, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in eastern TN, southeast KY, southern WV, southwest and far southwest VA, western NC, the FL panhandle, and southern AL and GA. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central IN, southern DE and MD, southern and eastern VA, north-central and northeast NC, and central AL and GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019