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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, August 10, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: New report from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from RI; new reports from SC, PA, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Washington County, RI; Aiken and Newberry Counties, SC; Chester County, PA; and Cecil County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Showers Southeast and North-central; drier Northeast and South-central. A front stalled over the Carolinas / TN Valley bisects the central and eastern U.S.. High pressure and dry weather largely govern the North today. Another front enters the North on Sunday accompanied by scattered showers. To the south, scattered showers occur east of the MS River while the south-central U.S. is dry. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s.


Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the South. Transport events move near-source and east on Saturday, near-source and curving north in most cases on Sunday. Conditions vary widely depending on cloud cover and rainfall. The more favorable conditions will be in the Southeast / NC. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, August 10

HIGH Risk for central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, western NC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern GA. Low Risk on the FL peninsula, and in eastern TN, far eastern GA, SC, central and northeast NC, central and eastern MA, RI, and far eastern CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, August 11

HIGH Risk for  southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in south-central GA, northeast SC, and southeast NC. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central AL, far eastern GA, central and western SC, the NC mountains, and western and central MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019