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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 5, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Yadkin County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 August: First report from PA; new report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Lancaster County, PA; and Cumberland County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

More active weather. Scattered to numerous showers or storms are anticipated in most sections of the east-central and eastern U.S. for the next several days. Decaying fronts in the East and a front moving through the northern areas will be the foci for higher chances / higher amounts of rain. Highs in the 80s-90s, lows from the 50s to 70s, coolest Northeast.


Overview: Epidemic spread likely. A wide range of environmental conditions surrounds the transport events of Monday through Wednesday. Transport events tend to move east or northeast each day. A large majority of the growing areas will be at Moderate or High Risk on multiple days. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 5

HIGH Risk on the FL panhandle and in central and southern AL, west-central and southern GA, eastern NC and VA, central and southern MD and DE. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in south-central VA, western and central NC, SC, and eastern GA. Low Risk in the FL peninsula, eastern TN, northern DE, southern NJ, southern MI, far northern IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 6

HIGH Risk in the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, southwest MI, northern IN, and far northwest OH. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the western panhandle, central and southern AL, central GA, southern SC, northwest SC, western NC, northeast MD, northern DE, eastern PA, NJ, Long Island, southeast NY, southern VT, western MA, and CT. Low risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, and in the central and eastern Carolinas, southern and eastern VA, southern MD and DE, southern NH, central and eastern MA, RI, southeast MI, north-central OH, and far southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, August 7

HIGH Risk in the NC mountains, central and eastern MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, and far southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk in the FL panhandle, central and southern AL and GA, SC, NC except the mountains, eastern TN, southeast KY, all but northern VA, and southern MD. Low risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, and northeast NY, VT and NH except the far southern sections, western ME, and nearby southern Quebec. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019