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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, August 3, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 3 August: First report from PA; new report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Lancaster County, PA; and Cumberland County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 1 August: First report from TN; new reports from NC, NJ, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, TN; Hunterdon County, NJ; Wicomico County, MD; and Haywood, Henderson, and Burke Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Showery Summer weather. A stationary front resides over the southern U.S. with high pressure to the north. A weak front will swing through southern Canada / northeastern U.S. tonight and Sunday. Scattered showers will fall each day, mainly in the mid-Atlantic and southern U.S.. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.


Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South, possible elsewhere on the East Coast. Transport events tend to track near-source and/or NE / E / SE. Conditions will vary event to event and day to day corresponding to the change in sky cover and chance of showers / rain amounts. Better chances of epidemic spread will be in the southern half of the U.S..

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, August 3

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, central and southern AL, and far southwest GA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern GA, eastern SC, eastern NC, the NC mountains, east-central TN, NJ, eastern PA, southeast NY, Long Island, and western CT. Low Risk in DE, eastern MD, eastern VA, eastern TN, central NC, central and western SC, and the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, August 4

HIGH Risk in central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, SC, east-central TN, and the western half of NC. Moderate Risk in eastern TN, the eastern half of NC, southeast VA, and southern MD. Low risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, western Long Island, eastern MA, and and RI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019