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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, August 1, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 1 August: First report from TN; new reports from NC, NJ, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, TN; Hunterdon County, NJ; Wicomico County, MD; and Haywood, Henderson, and Burke Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: First report from MI; new report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Berrien County, MI; and Chowan County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Unsettled weather. The early-week front stretches from southern New England down through the southern Appalachains and into the lower MS Valley. The front has stalled and will wobble around the mid-Atlantic / mid-South. Sunny to partly cloudy skies give way to scattered to numerous showers and storms along and south of the front each day. High pressure to the north will keep much of the northern areas dry. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows 60s and 70s. Unsettled weather is likely to persist in most of the East through the weekend and into next week.


Overview: Epidemic spread likely Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Increasingly favorable weather for epidemic spread envelopes the transport events on Thursday and Friday. Thursday's events move mostly near the sources. Friday's events track near-source and/or curve to the north. Drier weather to the north yields unfavorable conditions for the MI and MA transport events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, August 1

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, west-central and southwest GA, the southern Appalachian Mountains, northeast SC, and southeast NC. Low Risk in the FL peninsula, southern and central SC, central and northeast NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, far southeast PA, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, August 2

HIGH Risk in the eastern FL panhandle, southeast AL, southwest GA, SC, NC, southern and eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, and most of southeast PA. Moderate Risk in the western FL panhandle, AL except the southeast and far north, northern and eastern GA, eastern TN, NJ, eastern PA except parts of the southeast, and south-central NY. Low risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019