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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, July 11, 2019

*** Epidemic Update - 11 July: New reports from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Accomack and Chesterfield Counties, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 July: First report from NJ. CDM has been confirmed in Salem County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Active weather. Newly-formed Tropical Storm Barry and a cold front moving into the eastern U.S.constitute the main features. Expect variably to mostly cloudy skies and scattered to numerous showers or storms from the east coast states down through the central Gulf states today. Active weather continues on Friday in the southeastern 1/4 of the nation, accentuated by clouds and rain surrounding Barry as it strengthens and approaches the LA coast. Showers decrease in the mid-Atlantic on Friday. Highs in the upper 80s and 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South and along the East Coast, possible in many other nearby areas. The main impacts from Barry late this workweek will be from the circulation. That circulation is pulling the transport events from GA and AL more to the north and west than they might otherwise go. Conditions are favorable in the South and East today and remain so in the South on Friday. Epidemic spread is possible much farther inland compared to many recent events. Transport events and their associated conditions will be watched closely this weekend as the strength and track of Barry evolve over time.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, July 11

HIGH Risk in the FL eastern panhandle, most of northern and central AL, GA except the southeast, east-central and eastern NC, southeast VA, the eastern 1/2 of MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, far southeast NY, Long Island, CT, and RI. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA, eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Low Risk in the FL peninsula and western panhandle, southwest / west / far northern AL, far eastern MS, southern TN, the central and western Carolinas, northeast PA, southeast NY, MA, and the border counties of VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, July 12

HIGH Risk in the FL eastern panhandle, northern / central / southeast AL, GA except the northeast, eastern SC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northeast NC and southeast VALow risk for the FL peninsula, west-central AL, northern MS, TN, southern KY, northeast GA, the western and central Carolinas, southwest VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019