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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 8, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 8 July: First report from NJ. CDM has been confirmed in Salem County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 July: New report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Chilton County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Active weather persists in the Southeast, subsides briefly in the mid-Atlantic. The cold front that pushed into the northern mid-Atlantic Sunday should reach the Southeast and stall on Tuesday. That leaves the Southeast in the warm/hot and humid airmass early this week and daily showers will continue. Showers are expected in the mid-Atlantic on Monday, followed by drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak area of low pressure developing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico may enhance the chance of rainfall. Highs in the 80s mid-Atlantic, 90s Southeast. Lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and eastern mid-Atlantic. Forecast pathways from the known sources vary on Monday and Tuesday. Most on Wednesday travel north though some move west. Conditions are mixed to favorable for epidemic spread for nearly all events on Monday and for those coming out of the Southeast and NC Tuesday and Wednesday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 8

HIGH Risk in the FL eastern panhandle, southwest GA, most of eastern NC, east-central and eastern VA, central and southern MD, DE, southern NJ, and southeast PA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast NC, northeast SC, central GA, central and southern AL except the west, and the western FL panhandle. Low Risk in southern SC, southeast GA, and the FL panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 9

HIGH Risk in the FL eastern panhandle, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, and eastern NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the western panhandle, central and southern AL, central GA, and west-central SCLow risk for the FL peninsula, northern GA, northwest SC, and NC except for the far NE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, July 10

HIGH Risk in the eastern panhandle of FL, most of southern GA, and central and eastern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the FL western panhandle, southeast AL, central GA, western SC, and south-central and southeast NCLow risk for the FL peninsula, central and southwest AL, and eastern MS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019