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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 24, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Southern United States

Increasingly active weather. High pressure sprawled over the eastern U.S. will yield to a system coming out of the Gulf. Clouds and rain impact the lower MS Valley Wednesday and encompass the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night. Highs mostly 60s and 70s, lows mostly 40s-60s..



Overview: Epidemic spread is possible in the deep South. The potential for epidemic spread is much greater Thursday than Wednesday, as the system in the Gulf of Mexico stretches its influence to the ENE. Transport events generally move near-source and west due to the position of the low pressure area / front to the south and high pressure to the north in the Ohio Valley / mid-Atlantic.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 24

Low Risk for west-central FL, southwest MS, and northern LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 25

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern LA, MS, far southern TN, AL, southern GA, and FL except the southern counties. Low Risk for central GA and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018