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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 19, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Scattered showers. A pair of cold fronts will overtake surface troughs and a stationary front as they trek toward and then off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Scattered showers will fall ahead of the fronts and near the other boundaries. Frosts and freezes have already occurred over many northern and mountain areas. More will occur late this week and during the weekend. Highs ranging from the 40s to 80s, lows from the 20s/30s to the 60s.



Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the southern U.S.. Transport events move near-source and northeast on Friday, quickly east on Saturday. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions ahead of the cold front and near the other features may promote some epidemic spread in the southern half of the U.S.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 19

Moderate Risk for eastern MS, south-central TN, AL, far southwest GA, and the northern FL panhandle. Low Risk for cucurbits northeast LA, southwest MS, the NC foothills, and west-central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 20

Moderate Risk in southeast VA, central and eastern NC, and SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in central LA, southwest and northeast MS, south-central TN, AL, GA except the northeast, the FL panhandle and northern FL, and western NC / southwest VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018