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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 12, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 12 September: First report from NH; New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, NH; and Monroe County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New reports from NY, OH, and WI. CDM has been confirmed in Niagara County, NY; Champaign and Seneca County, OH; and Waushara County, WI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Hurricane Florence approaches the NC coast. The weather will become very wet on Thursday in the mid-Atlantic as Florence nears the coast. A variety of weather is expected elsewhere during midweek; showers will occur near a decaying front from the Northeast southwestward all the way to the Gulf Coast. There is a chance of showers elsewhere mixed in with dry weather. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely many areas. Transport events move various directions with those in the middle East Coast increasingly driven by the circulation around Hurricane Florence. Conditions are mixed to favorable for the majority of events. .

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 12

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, southwest to northeast GA, western NC and SC, far northeast TN, WV, southwest and western VA, northern MD, northern DE, central to southeast PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, southern VT and NH . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern DE, central and southern MD, central VA and NC, north-central and eastern SC, southeast KY, eastern TN, northwest GA, east-central and southwest AL, southeast MS and LA. Low Risk for southeast GA, southern SC, eastern NC, southeast VA, eastern OH, northwest PA, and south-central and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 13

HIGH Risk in west-central NY, central PA, MD, the eastern 1/2 of VA, east-central / eastern / far southwest NC, northeast NC, northeast and southern TN, northern GA, all but southeast AL, and southeast MS. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the western FL panhandle, central GA, western and central SC, western NC except the southwest, the western 1/2 of VA, far eastern KY, WV, southwest and far eastern PA, DE, NJ, and Long Island. Low Risk to cucurbits in eastern MI, OH, northwest PA, western and southeast NY, southern VT and NH, southern New England, east-central KY, and north-central TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018