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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 9, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New reports from NY, OH, and WI. CDM has been confirmed in Niagara County, NY; Champaign and Seneca County, OH; and Waushara County, WI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Active weather. A warm front over the mid-Atlantic connects to the remnants of TC Gordon in the Ohio Valley. A cold front extends to the southwest. Showers and rain will fall from southeast Canada to the Gulf Coast as the system treks to the north and east. Some drying wil occur Tuesday. The cold front stalls on Thursday. Highs in the 60s to 80s warming tot he 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely all regions. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition will be favorable during a large majority of the transport events early this week. Events move in a variety of directions and can impact any growing areas east of the MS river on more than one occasion.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 9

HIGH Risk in southern and eastern IN, OH, southeast MI, southern ON, western and southern NY, PA, NJ, DE, MD, the Virginias, KY, TN, the NC mountains, and far northern AL . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northwest IN, southwest and east-central MI, central and eastern NC, SC, GA, eastern AL, and far northern FL. Low Risk for southwet AL, the FL panhandle, southeast NY, Long Island, and western CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 10

HIGH Risk in southesat MI, southern ON, all but southwest OH, NY, PA, NJ, southern New England, southern VT and NH, DE, MD, WV, all but southeast VA, northeast TN, western NC, central and southern AL, and west-central nd southern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central MI, eastern IN, southwest OH, eastern KY, central TN, southeast VA, central and eastern NC, SC, northern AL, and northern and eastern GA . Low Risk to cucurbits in west-central MI, and central IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, September 11

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, central and southern AL and GA, southern Appalachian Mountains, far eastn PA, northern NJ, Long Island, eastern NY, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southeast PA, southern NJ, DE, eastern MD, south-central and southeast VA, central and eastern NC, all but northwest SC, northern and eastern GA, northern AL, and south-central TN. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern VA, central and eastern WV, central and western MD, western and central PA, NY except the southeast, and northern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018