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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 7, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley; dry far North; chance of showers elsewhere. Declining TD Gordon is moving quite slowly through the mid-MS Valley. He joins with a wavy surface front running west-east from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic states. Precipitation will focus in these areas. High pressure pressing southward from Canada will keep southern Canada and the far northern U.S. dry. To the south ... warm, muggy weather dominates with showers possible in various areas, mainly near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states. Transport events exhibit a variety of directions late this week, the more notable ones moving westward from some of the northern sources. Conditions are most favorable near the front lying across the eastern U.S. midsection. The clouds and rain associated with the circulation around TD Gordon will have only a partial effect on a few transport events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 7

HIGH Risk in southeast IL, central and southern IN, central and southern OH, KY and WV except the far south, central and southern PA, MD, northern VA, DE, and central and southern NJ . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast IL, northern IN, northern OH, northern PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, southern VA, far southern WV, far southern KY, western TN, the mountain and coastal counties of NC, coastal SC, southern GA, far southern AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk for south-central AL and GA, east-central SC and NC, and northeast TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 8

HIGH Risk in southeast IL, central and southern IN, southern OH, KY, VA, WV, MD, southern PA, DE, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern TN, NC, SC, far southern GA and AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in south-central AL and GA, northeast IL, far northern IL, northern OH, southern MI, central and northern PA, and northern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018