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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, September 4, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 4 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 2 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Wet Gulf Coast and parts of the North; variable weather elsewhere. The big players in the mid-week weather are TS / HR Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico and a frontal system in the North. Tropical Storm Gordon is moving northwest through the eastern Gulf. Gordon should reach hurricane strength this afternoon and will make landfall on the central Gulf Coast tonight. The lower MS Va;lley will receive heavy rain over the next several days. To the north, a frontal system will impact the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Northeast in succession as it moves east. Meanwhile, high pressure entrenched over most of east-central and eastern North America yields hot and muggy weather, with summertime isolated to scattered showers in various areas each day. Hot with highs in the upper 80s and 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s, cooling in the North Thursday into Friday.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely Gulf Coast and parts of the North. A mixed bag of conditions surround the midweek transport events. The most favorable will be near Hurricane Gordon and near the front progressing across the northern areas. Conditions change day-to-day and locale to locale for most events, slightly favorable to mixed. Events move many directions.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, September 4

HIGH Risk in eastern LA, the southern 1/2 of MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southwest GA . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in north-central MS, north-central AL, central and southeast GA, and southern SC. Low Risk for northern LA, eastern AR, northern MS, northern AL, south-central TN, northern and eastern SC, NC, VA, eastern WV, southern MD, southern DE, eastern WI, central and southern MI, far northern IN, southern ON, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, September 5

HIGH Risk in southwest AL, central and southern MS, northern IL, southern WI, and west-central MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far eastern AR, northern MS, central and southeast AL, the FL panhandle, southwest and eastern GA, central and western SC, southwest NC, northern IN, and central and southern MI. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast MI, northern OH, southern ON, most of NY, PA except the southwest, northern NJ, central and southern IN, and southwest OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, September 6

HIGH Risk in southern MS, southwest AL, southeast MI, northern OH, western and central PA, southern ON, and the western 1/2 of NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southwest GA, coastal SC, AL except the southwest, northern  MS, western TN and KY, southeast IL, southwest IN, eastern MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, the eastern half of NY, southern New England, and southern VT and NH . Low Risk to cucurbits in south-central MI, part of southern ON, eastern KY, southern WV, western and southwest VA, northeast TN, and western NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018