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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 2, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 2 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 31 August: New reports from TN and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Lawrence County, TN; and Aiken County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled Gulf Coast and North; mostly dry with some showers elsewhere. High pressure at the surface and aloft governs the weather in eastern North America. Unsettled / wet weather will be found in a "horseshoe" that runs along the Gulf Coast, north through the central U.S., and then east into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The high pressure aloft generally suppresses shower activity in the Ohio and TN Valleys and the mid-Atlantic, though isolated to scattered showers will occur in some areas. Warm, with highs 80s and 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely Gulf Coast and part of the Great Lakes, possible elsewhere. Transport events move a variety of directions, driven by the clockwise circulation around surface high pressure centered along / just off the central Atlantic coast. Conditions will more favorable near the Gulf Coast and parts of the North. Elsewhere, anything from unfavorable to mixed conditions is possible during the events, with risks heavily dependent on daily cloud coverage and the chance of showers.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 2

HIGH Risk in southern SC, southern GA, the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern MS, southeast LA, and eastern WI . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central MS, central AL, central and northeast GA, northwest SC, western NC, eastern TN, southeast KY, southern WV, southwest VA, theDelMarVa peninsula, and southern NJ. Low Risk for NY, western MA, CT, Long Island, northern and central NJ, the northeast 1/2 of PA, east-central KY, central and eastern VA, central and eastern NC, and north-central and northeast SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 3

HIGH Risk in eastern WI, central MI, southern MS, far southeast LA, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southwest GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central AL, central GA, southern SC, the NC mountains and nearby southwest VA, northern IN and OH, southern MI, southern ON, far northern PA, and western and central NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in PA except the far north, NJ, northern WV, MD, DE, VA except the southwest, east-central and eastern KY, NC east of the mountains, and central and northern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018