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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 31, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 31 August: New reports from TN and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Lawrence County, TN; and Aiken County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 August: New reports from KY, NY, OH, NC, ON. CDM has been confirmed in Fayette County, KY; Genessee County, NY; Wayne County, OH; Yadkin County, NC; and Chatham-Kent County, ON. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Variable weather. One front is dissipating over the mid-Atlantic / Ohio Valley. Another is moving through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. The better chances of rain will be  from the mid-Atlantic southwestward through the mid-South and ahead of the front in the north. Scattered showers are possible just about anywhere else though some locales will be dry. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely many different areas. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition during the late week transport events will vary quite a bit from region to region and from day to day. Events near the Gulf Coast and in portions of the mid-Atlantic states and Great Lakes have the most favorable conditions. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will be encountered by many other transport events.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 31

HIGH Risk in southern MS, far southeast LA, southern 1/2 of AL, southwest GA, far eastern WV, MD, DE, far northern VA, NJ, and central and eastern PA . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern WI, the western UP of MI, central NY, KY except the west-central, TN except the east-central, southern WV, VA except the far north, NC, northwest SC, and the northern 1/2 of AL. Low Risk for SC except the northwest, northwest-central PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 1

HIGH Risk in the western FL panhandle, southern AL, central and southern MS, northeast TN, the NC mountains, southwest / western / northern VA, eastern WV, MD, DE, southern NJ, southern PA, central and northern MI, eastern WI, and the central UP of MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southwest GA, central and northern AL, northeast MS, eastern GA, SC, NC outside the mountains, south-central and eastern VA, eastern KY, southern OH, western WV, western and northern PA, and central and northern NJ. Low Risk to cucurbits in western TN and KY, IN, southern MI, southern ON, southern and southeast NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018