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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 24, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 24 August: New reports from IN, AL, WI, PA, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, IN; Shelby and Elmore Counties, AL; Dane County, WI; Chester County, PA; and Chautauqua, Allegany, Cattaraugus, and Tioga Counties, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 August: First report from CT; new reports from VA, PA, and WV. CDM has been confirmed in Hartford County, CT; Madison, Albemarle, and Montgomery Counties, VA; Blair County, PA; and Monroe and Monongalia Counties, WV. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Showers Southeast and Great Lakes / Ohio Valley; dry otherwise. Thursday marked the beginning of a much drier period and this will continue for at least the next several days. Canadian high pressure is wedging itself into the eastern U.S. / Canadian maritimes. The prior front is pinned near the Gulf Coast. Another small system is moving toward the Great Lakes / Midwest / Ohio Valley. Those features will trigger some showers. Dry and cooler weather will be found elsewhere. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s to 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Great Lakes. Transport events on Friday move near-source and northwest to north. Most of Saturday's events move northeast. The most favorable conditions will be found in and around the Great Lakes region.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 24

HIGH Risk in central WI, the western UP of MI, western IN, eastern IL, and western MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast IN, central MI, southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk for northwest OH, eastern MI, and far southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 25

HIGH Risk in eastern IN and the eastern half of lower MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western MI, western IN, far eastern IL, northern OH, southern ON, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southern GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern SC, northern WV, western PA, NY, southern WI, and far northern IL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018