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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, August 28, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 28 August: New reports from KY, NY, OH, NC, ON. CDM has been confirmed in Fayette County, KY; Genessee County, NY; Wayne County, OH; Yadkin County, NC; and Chatham-Kent County, ON. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 August: New reports from PA and KY. CDM has been confirmed in Columbia County, PA; and Caldwell County, KY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled weather returns. The high pressure and associated fair weather that have been dominant over eastern North America will slowly give way to more unsettled weather during midweek. Clouds and rain accompany a cold front that impacts the Great Lakes / Midwest Tuesday, the Northeast / Ohio Valley Wednesday, and the mid-Atlantic / TN Valley on Thursday. Scattered showers occur in the Southeast each day. Most of the rest of the eastern U.S. is dry Tuesday and Wednesday; the chance of rain returns Thursday. Highs in the 90s Tuesday changing to 70s North to 90s South. Lows going from 70s to 50s North to 70s South.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Great Lakes and parts of the South. Transport events exhibit a strong tendency to the northeast and east with some staying near the source area. The most favorable conditions will naturally be found near the cold front, transitioning to mixed or slightly favorable for those events farther away. The recent dry weather in the eastern U.S. will likely subdue the impact of Thursday's transport events from those sources.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, August 28

HIGH Risk in eastern WI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern MI, coastal SC, east-central AL, southwest GA. Low Risk for northern and west-central AL, east-central and southeast GA, central SC, western and central NC, western and central VA, and southeast WV. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, August 29

HIGH Risk in central and southern MI, southern ON, westeern NY, northwest PA, northern and western OH, IN, western KY, southeast MS, southern AL, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western GA, central and northern AL, central TN and KY, northern WV, southern and eastern OH, and western PA. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern GA, eastern TN, the NC mountains, eastern KY, southwest VA, southern and central WV, central PA, central and northern NY, southern Quebec, and northern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, August 30

HIGH Risk in eastern KY, western WV, and southwest PA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southeast MS, AL, central and western GA, TN, western NC, western and central KY, western VA, eastern WV, western MD, central PA, and south-central NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in eastern GA, SC, central and eastern NC and VA, central and eastern MD, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, southern new Engalnd, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018