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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, August 21, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 August: First report from CT; new reports from VA, PA, and WV. CDM has been confirmed in Hartford County, CT; Madison, Albemarle, and Montgomery Counties, VA; Blair County, PA; and Monroe and Monongalia Counties, WV. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 August: First report from WI; new reports from MI, SC, and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Columbia County, WI; Allegan, Berrien, Newaygo, and Ingham Counties, MI; Chesterfield County, SC; Worcester County, MA; and Montour County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Wet weather Tuesday; drying Wednesday; dry Thursday. A major frontal system progresses through the U.S. / southern Canada during midweek. Clouds and showers encompass almost all areas Tuesday. Showers occur Wednesday in the mid-Atlantic / NE and parts of the adjoining regions as the cold front portion of the system nears the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Dry weather begins in earnest behind the front, becoming dominant on Thursday. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s and 60s with a decided cooling trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely for Tuesday's transport events and some of Wednesday's. Highly favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition are occurring on Tuesday during most events as they head east and northeast. Conditions improve on Wednesday; transport events track more near-source and east with the higher favorability toward the Northeast. Dramatic changes arrive by Thursday, when nearly all events are benign. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, August 21

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, the southern 1/2 of AL, southwest GA, far northwest SC, eastern TN, western NC, east-central and eastern KY, southwest / west / northern VA, WV, MD, DE, NJ, PA, CT, westeern MA, southern and west-central VT, all of NY, southern ON, OH, northern and eastern IN, and central and southern MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in north-central VT, central and southern NH, central and eastern MA, RI southeast VA, central and eastern NC, SC, and north-central and eastern GA. Low Risk for northern AL, south-central TN, far western ME, northern NH, and southern QE into parts of southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, August 22

HIGH Risk in central and eastern NY, central and eastern PA, most of NJ, Long Island, southern New England, southern and eastern NH, and western ME. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern NJ, DE, central and eastern MD and VA, eastern NC, and far northeast SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, southeast GA, southern SC, western NC, northeast TN, western and southwest VA, central and eastern WV, far western MD, western PA and NY, eastern OH, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, August 23

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast GA, and southern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in northeast SC and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018