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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 8, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from NY; new reports from PA, VA, MD, DE, IN, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Tompkins County, NY; Centre County, PA; Chesterfield County, VA; Wicomico County, MD; Sussex County, DE; Porter County, IN; and Muskegon County, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New report from PA. CDM had been confirmed in Bucks County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Variable summer weather. Clouds and showers will focus along a cold front that is pushing into the Northeast / Ohio VAlley. Isolated to scattered showers are found elsewhere. The front trudges southward on Thursday and the better chances of rain go with it. Some northern areas will have showers due to another front moviing into the Great Lakes. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the southern Appalachians and the Northeast. Transport events tend to track near-source and east to northeast each day. A large variety of environmental conditions surrounds the midweek events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 8

HIGH Risk in northwest SC, eastern TN, western NC, eastern KY, southern WV, southwest VA, central and eastern PA, northern NJ, central and eastern NY, CT, and Long Island. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern and eastern MI, northern OH and IN, southern ON, northwest PA, southeast AL, the FL panhandle, and central and southern GA. Low Risk for far eastern GA, all but northwest SC, central and eastern NC, south-central and eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, RI , MA, far northeastern NY, northern VT, southern QE, and west-central MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 9

HIGH Risk in eastern TN, northern GA, and western NC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle and northern FL, southern AL, central and southern GA, SC, south-central and eastern NC, southern ON, northern IN, northern OH, northwest PA, and far western NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in central NY, eastern KY, southwest WV, far southwest VA, north-central NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018