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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, August 5, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New report from PA. CDM had been confirmed in Bucks County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 August: First report from IN; new reports from NJ, VA, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Lagrange County, IN; Hunterdon County, NJ; Suffolk County, VA; and Arenac and Saginaw Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

More-typical summertime weather. High pressure extends over the eastern U.S. from the western Atlantic Ocean. The strong middle / upper atmospheric features that have been driving the recent wet weather have relaxed or moved out. What remains are sunny to partly cloudy skies and scattered PM showers or storms in various areas each day. A cold front brings a better chance of rain to the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. Highs mostly 90s, lows mostly 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in MI on Monday. Conditions are slightly favorable to mixed for nearly all transport events. Winds are generally light during this period, so most transport events stay near the known sources.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, August 5

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast GA, SC, and western and eastern NC. Low Risk for southeast MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle and far northern FL, central and southern GA, eastern TN, central and far eastern NC, and eastern VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, August 6

HIGH Risk in central and eastern lower MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southwest MI, northern IN, southern OH, western WV, eastern KY, far southwest VA, northeast TN, western and southeast NC, SC, and southwest / central / eastern GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast MS, central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southeast GA, a broad area of central and eastern NC, central and eastern VA, southwest MD, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, August 7

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast MS, central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southwest and eastern GA, the Carolinas, eastern TN and KY, southern WV, southwest and eastern VA, southern MD, the eastern half of PA, south-central NY, northern IN, northwest OH, most of lower MI, and far southern ON. Low Risk to cucurbits in DE, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018