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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, July 31, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: First reports from TN and MI; new reports from PA and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Knox County, TN; Berrien County, MI; Lancaster County, PA; and Hunterdon County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: First reports from KY; new report from AL. CDM had been confirmed in Pulaski and Breathitt Counties, KY; and Russell County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Very wet weather. A warm front over the mid-Atlantic is connected to a low pressure area in the Ohio Valley. An attendant quasi-stationary cold front extends southwestward into TX/LA. The fronts change position somewhat but do not move much until later this week. The subtropical floodgates are open and moisture abounds. Showers and/or storms are likely for nearly all areas of the eastern U.S. through midweek. Some drying may occur in the the Ohio Valley by Thursday. Highs mostly in the 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: HIGH Risk for cucurbits throughout the eastern United States. We are in a prolonged period of very favorable weather for epidemic spread. Transport events move north/NW Tuesday, generally north/NE Wednesday and Thursday. Susceptible plants in larege regions of the eastern U.S. are going to expericence multiple rounds of survivable spore transport and effective deposition.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, July 31

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern and eastern AL, all but southeast GA, SC, NC, eastern TN, eastern KY, the Virginias, MD, DE, most of PA, western NY, southern and eastern OH, southwest MI, northwest IN, far northeast IL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in NJ, far eastern PA, central NY. Low Risk for southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, August 1

HIGH Risk in southeast AL, the FL panhandle, most of GA, the Carolinas, northeast TN, eastern KY, VA, central and southern WV, MD, DE, central and western NJ, central and western PA, central NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NJ, Long Island, eastern NY, and western CT and MA. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, southern MI, northern IN, and northwest OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, August 2

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, GA, SC, eastern TN and KY, all but far eastern sections of NC / VA / MD, WV, central and eastern PA, and central NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the far eastern eastern sections of NC / VA / MD, DE, NJ, eastern NY, Long Island, and western CT and MA. Low Risk to cucurbits in VT, NH, central and eastern MA, eastern CT, RI, southern QE, and southern lower MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018