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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, July 29, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: First reports from KY; new report from AL. CDM had been confirmed in Pulaski and Breathitt Counties, KY; and Russell County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 July: New reports from PA, NJ, and NC. CDM had been confirmed in Lehigh County, PA; Cumberland County, NJ; and Haywood County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Active weather for most of this week. A stationary front is off the northern mid-Atlantic coast and extends southwestward through the Carolinas and deep South. As the upper-level and surface weather features evolve, scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue in the Southeast, expand back into the mid-Atlantic states, and then move over the bulk of the eastern U.S.. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows mostly in the 60s and 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Transport events track mostly near the sources on Sunday, and near-source to north and northwest on Monday. There will be a variety of conditions during each day's transport events, with favorability for epidemic spread increasing with time.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, July 29

HIGH Risk for southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, SC except the northwest, central and eastern NC, and far southeast VA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northwest SC, western NC, southwest and central VA. Low Risk for far eastern VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, July 30

HIGH Risk in central and southern AL, GA, the FL border counties, northeast TN, the Carolinas, VA, eastern WV, MD, DE, southern NJ, and west-central and southern PA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the eastern half of KY, east-central and northern PA, western NY, and nearby southern ON. Low Risk to cucurbits in central NY, northeast PA, far western PA, central and western WV, southern OH, and most of southern and central IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018