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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 20, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 20 July: New report from NC. CDM had been confirmed in Chatham County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 17 July: First report from VA. New Report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie County, VA; and Hyde County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Active weather. Two major systems will affect the weather. One is a low pressure area that is forming on the stalled front in the South. It will ride up the Atlantic coast. The other is a frontal system that is swinging through the Midwest toward the East. Rain and showers, initially in the Southeast and North on Friday, will occur over all the east coast states on Saturday. Highs mostly 80s with some 90s South on Saturday. Lows in the 60s and 70s. Wet weather will likely impact much of the East later this weekend into next week.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Transport events Friday and Saturday move a variety of ways as the two major weather systems affect them. Friday's tend to move near-source and west-to-northwest. Saturday's track east / northeast from the southern sources, west / northwest from the mid-Atlantic sources. The most favorable overall conditions for epidemic spread will be found in the Southeast, due to the more favorable current and forecast weather and the more favorable antecedent environment (more dry weather recently in the mid-Atlantic states). Favorable to very favorable weather for epidemic spread is expected all along the Eastern Seaboard from this weekend into at least the middle of next week.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 20

HIGH Risk for northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, and southeast SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the western FL panhandle, southeast AL, central GA, central SC, and eastern NC. Low Risk for central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 21

HIGH Risk for southeast AL, the FL panhandle, northern FL, and southern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, and western and southern NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in central FL, west-central VA, eastern WV, western PA, eastern OH, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018