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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, July 17, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 July: First report from VA. New Report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie County, VA; and Hyde County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 July: New reports from AL and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Escambia and Baldwin Counties, AL; and in Warren County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Cold front impacts the eastern U.S.. Active weather with abundant clouds and showers will occur Tuesday as the front moves over the Appalachians and into our regions of interest. The front clears the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday; progressive high pressure traverses the northern U.S. in its wake then brings 2-3 days of dry weather. Showers continue in the South after the front stalls. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and PA(Tuesday). Conditions during Tuesday's transport events are mixed or favorable for epidemic spread. Thereafter, unfavorable weather makes increasing inroads in the mid-Atlantic region and the events of interest occur in the Southeast. A variety of conditions surround those transport events on Wednesday and Thursday. Airborne spores track east to northeast ahead of the front, south to sometimes west behind the front (nearly all these events have minimal impact).   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, July 17

HIGH Risk for south-central and southeast PA, southeast AL, central and southern GA, southern SC, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern SC, central and eastern NC, eastern VA, southeast MD, DE, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Low Risk for northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, July 18

HIGH Risk for the southern half of AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, and far southern SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in south-central and northeast SC, and far southeast NC. Low Risk to cucurbits in north-central SC, and most of southeast and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, July 19

HIGH Risk for southern AL, FL panhandle, and southern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central AL, west-central and south-central GA, and far southern SC. Low Risk in east-central GA, and central and northern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018