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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 6, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 3 July: First report from NJ; new report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Salem County, NJ; and in Wake County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 1 July: First report from AL; new reports from GA and SC. CDM had been confirmed in Lee County, AL; Turner County, GA; and in Darlington and Lexington Counties, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Cold front ushers in a good chance of rain and cooler temperatures (for some). The midweek cold front in the Midwest reached the mountains on schedule last night. Accompanied by clouds and numerous showers, it will push through the mid-Atlantic today and tonight and settle east-west across the southern states on Saturday. After the frontal passage, the mid-Atlantic states except for NC will be sunny to partly cloudy and dry. The Southeast and NC will have clouds and a chance of showers. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. Much cooler Saturday in the mid-Atlantic.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Conditions during the various transport events are mixed to favorable for survivable transport and deposition. Transport outside of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions does not appear to be an issue, though the favorable conditions in the Southeast will encourage further epidemic spread in those states. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 6

Transport events track near-source and east to northeast. HIGH Risk for southern GA, northern FL, and the eastern panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the western panhandle, the southeast 1/2 of AL, central GA, central and eastern SC, east-central and eastern NC, southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, far southeast PA, and southern NJ. Low risk for central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 7

HIGH Risk for southeast AL, the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, and central and eastern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in eastern NC. Low Risk in northern and central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018