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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 22, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 17 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Nash and Johnston Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 June: First report from MD. New reports from SC, NC, and GA. CDM has been confirmed in Dorchester County, MD; Bamburg County, SC; Edgecombe County, NC; and Decatur County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Summertime hot with showers late this week. Slow-moving surface features are in place the next 2 days. A front wavers around in the mid-Atlantic, connected to a Low in the Ohio Valley, with a front southward from there into the western Southeast / mid-South. The front to the west crawls eastwards into Saturday. Sunny to partly cloudy skies and hot temperatures accompany scattered showers and storms south and east of the fronts. More clouds and a better chance of rain are found near the front in the mid-Atlantic. Highs in the upper 80s and 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the upper mid-Atlantic, possible elsewhere along the Atlantic Coast. Favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition are expected for the transport events coming out of MD. Other events are characterized by slightly favorable to moderate conditions. Transport events move northeast in nearly all cases, save for MD event on Friday, which moves WNW.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 22

HIGH Risk for southern NJ, DE, and central and eastern MD. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast VA, east-centra and eastern NC, southern GA, far northern FL, and central FL. Low risk for the coastal plains of SC, southeast NC, northern VA, western MD, northern WV, and southwest PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 23

HIGH Risk for central and southern NJ, far southeast PA, northeast MD, and northern DE. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern DE, eastern MD, southeast VA, eastern NC, southern and eastern SC, southeast GA, and central FL. Low Risk in southwest GA and northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018