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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 16, 2017

*** Epidemic Update - 16 May: First report from U.S. in 2018. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Prolonged period of wet weather. A cut-off low pressure area aloft, now over the northeastern Gulf / FL panhandle, will drift slowly north over the next several days. sthe surface, weak low pressure areas and associated troughs lie over the Southeast and a stationary front lies to the north and west. Tropical moisture is streaming into the region. Skies will be mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread and storms each day. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s. This pattern will persist into next week.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Wednesday's transport event moves northeast, Thursday's slowly and more ENE. Conditions are quite favorable for epidemic spread.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 16

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL and far southeast GA near the FL border. Moderate Risk in southeast GA and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 17

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central FL. Low Risk for northern FL and southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018