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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 6, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Yazoo County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dramatic transition from dry to wet. Rain around a front in the Plains / North, scattered showers in the far South, and dry weather elsewhere make Friday like previous days. Significant changes with widespread clouds and rain arrive this weekend. Moisture rapidly increases; the front moves into the east-central U.S.; and, Tropical Storm Nate, which moves into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, becomes a hurricane and makes landfall on the central Gulf Coast and heads northeast. Warm with highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South and possible elsewhere. The massive influx of favorable conditions from the south and west fuels a greatly increased chance of epidemic spread compared to recent times. Host availability and the antecedent dry conditions over most of the growing regions will initially temper risks on Saturday; risks will increase on Sunday. The higher risks will occur in the southern areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in northern FL, southern GA, northern IN, central and southern MI, northern OH, northern PA, western and central NY, MA, and southern VT and NH. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest GA, the eastern FL panhandle, and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk for southern and western SC, GA, the FL panhandle, AL, MS, western and central TN, western KY, IN, MI except the UP, southern ON, northwest OH. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NY, northwest PA, most of OH, northern KY, northern SC, and western and central NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, MS, AL, GA, SC, and western and central TN. Moderate Risk for western and central NC, the western half of VA, WV, northeast TN, KY, central and southern OH and IN. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast OH, PA, NY, southern QC, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, MD, DE, the eastern half of VA, and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017