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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 7, 2017

*** Epidemic Update - 7 August: New reports from VA, NC, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Chowan County, NC; Montgomery County, VA; and Anderson County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 August: New reports from MI, NY, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Saginaw and Ingham Counties, MI; Ontario and Onandaga Counties, NY; and Haywood, Ashe, and Caldwell Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather this week. Expect clouds, rain, and showers along and ahead of a front that stretches from the mid-Atlantic through central TX. High pressure pushing the front into the southern states brings drier weather to the northern areas Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs in the 70s and 80s with some 90s South, lows in the 50s to 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely many areas. We have a typical summertime forecast scenario, where conditions are quite favorable along and ahead of a front, are mixed farther to the south and east, and unfavorable to perhaps slightly favorable behind the front or on the back side of a low pressure system. Risks depend on the timing of the fronts and events, the degree of washout expected early in the events, and the antecedent conditions. The most favorable conditions early this week will be in the northern and southern areas, with generally lesser risks in between. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern NY, southern VT and NH, southern New England, Long Island, central and eastern PA, NJ, eastern WV, DE, MD, VA except the southeast, western NC, western SC, northern GA, central AL, and southern MS. Moderate Risk in eastern TX, southern AL, central and southern GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, and southeast VA. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern MI, southern ON, OH, western PA, central and western WV, and eastern KY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in MS, AL, central and northern GA, SC, NC, southside VA, and southeast TX. Moderate Risk in FL and southern GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northwest NC, southwest VA, central and eastern NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017