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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 2, 2017

*** Epidemic Update - 2 August: New reports from MD, OH, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Prince George's, St. Mary's, and Anne Arundel Counties, MD; Franklin County, OH; Chatauqua County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: First report from MA; new reports from NY, PA, and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Franklin County, MA; Suffolk, Seneca, and Cattaraugus Counties, NY; Bucks County, PA; and Chilton County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled far South and North; mostly dry elsewhere. Moisture is on the increase in the eastern U.S. / southern Canada during midweek. Scattered to numerous showers will fire in the far South and near a meandering frontal boundary in the North. Drier weather persists in between. Post - Tropical Cyclone Emily, who brough rain to FL earlier this week, moves northeast off the Southeast coast and should have little to no impact. Highs mostly in the 80s, lows from the 50s to 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the northern areas and the Southeast. Transport events tend to track near the sources and to the northeast. The more favorable conditions for epidemic spread are heavily weighted across the North and toward the Southeast. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, and in eastern MI, northwest OH, southern ON, eastern PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, CDT, western and central MA, and southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk in northern KY, central and eastern OH, western and central NY, western PA, central MD, northern DE, southern NJ, Long Island, RI, eastern MA, east-central TX, southwest MS, the eastern panhandle of FL, and southern GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in the NC mountains. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 3

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the FL panhandle, southeast MS, southern AL, central and southern GA, southern SC, lower MI, northern OH, southern ON, central and northern PA, and western and central NY. Moderate Risk in northeast KY, southern OH, southern PA, northern MD, northern DE, NJ, eastern NY, far southern Quebec, VT, NH, and the western halves of MA and CT. Low Risk for cucurbits in far southern TX, east-central TX, central and northern MS, northern AL, northeast SC, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017