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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 26, 2017

*** Epidemic Update - 26 July: First report from KY; new reports from OH and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Fayette County, KY; Belmont County, OH; and Henderson County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 24 July: New reports from NY, PA, MI, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Genessee and Yates Counties, NY; Cumberland, Franklin, Clinton, and Centre Counties, PA; Wayne and Muskegon Counties, MI; and Lincoln County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Variable weather. Rain and/or showers during midweek are focused near a dissipating front in the Southeast and along / ahead of a cold front that moves into the upper Midwest today and into the Northeast / Ohio Valley on Thursday. Mostly dry elsewhere and elsewhen. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Southeast and North. Everything from dry weather to numerous showers is possible in the southern areas; the risks reflect this. Dry / unfavorable weather dominates the northern areas for Wednesday's transport events. As the front draws nearer, it will impact many more transport events on Thursday. Events overall show a tendency to track near the sources and to the east / northeast during midweek. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 26

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA, southern SC, and north-central MI. Moderate Risk in southern FL, the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, southwest and central GA, northern SC, and western NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the western panhandle of FL, western AL, far northeast SC and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 27

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, southern GA, western NC, northeast KY, far northeast IN, southern MI, southern ON, northern and eastern OH, central and southern NY, north-central and northeast PA, northern NJ, Long Island, southern New England, and far southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk in central MI, south-central and southeast PA, southern NJ, central and southern FL, the FL panhandle, southeast AL, central GA, southern and western SC, and west-central NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and western AL, eastern SC, and northern IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017