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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 14, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 July: New reports from MI, AL, and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Gratiot and Lenawee Counties, MI; Pickens County, AL; and Northumberland County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 12 July: New reports from NC, PA, and MS. CDM has been confirmed in Nash County, NC; Mifflin and Blair Counties, PA; and Hinds County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Variable and unsettled weather. The somewhat stationary front over the northern areas moves south and east as a cold front this weekend. The cloudiest and rainiest weather shifts from the more northern sections on Friday to the central and southern sections on Saturday and Sunday. Drier weather will occur over the North behind the front, although a second front will produce some scattered showers on one day or another. Highs in the 80s and 90s, some 70s North. Lows in the 60s and 70s, with some 50s North.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely across the South and in part of the Northeast. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread follow along with the front and occur daily, to lesser or greater extent, over the southern U.S.. Transport events for each of the next several days track near the sources and/or to the east and/or northeast.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL, far southeast MS, central and northeast PA, NJ, Long Island, central and eastern NY, far western MA, and western CT. Moderate Risk for southeast PA, central and southern NJ, northern DE, western NC, northern FL, southwest GA, east-central and northwest AL, and western MS. Low Risk for cucurbits near the TX sources, and in northern GA, central and eastern NC, western PA, western NY, eastern CT, RI, MA, southern VT, and southern NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central MS, AL, the FL panhandle, western GA, western NC, and northern SC. Moderate Risk near the southeast TX source, and in southern and west-central FL, central and eastern GA, SC except for the north, central and eastern NC, and southeast VA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central MS, AL, the FL panhandle, GA, southern and eastern SC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk on the FL peninsula, near the TX sources, northwest SC, NC except the southeast, central and eastern MI, southern ON, northern OH, northwest PA, and western and west-central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017