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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 12, 2017

*** Epidemic Update - 12 July: New reports from NC, PA, and MS. CDM has been confirmed in Nash County, NC; Mifflin and Blair Counties, PA; and Hinds County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 July: First reports from VA. New reports from OH, NC, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie and Suffolk Counties, VA; Huron County, OH; McDowell County, NC; and Darlington County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather North; varied weather Central and South. A wavy front is draped over the northern areas. Rain and showers will occur near the front while the western side of the boundary slowly sags to the south. Hot and humid air resides in the central and southern U.S.. Some areas will be dry; others will have isolated to scattered showers. Hot south of the front with highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. Cooler readings will occur north of the front.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Lakes, Northeast, and the South. Transport events, most of which move near-source, east, or northeast, encounter a variety of conditions through midweek. The more favorable weather and highest risks will be found in parts of the Southeast and parts of the Northeast (near the front).  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL, far southeast MS, southeast MI, southern ON, western NY, east-central and eastern PA, northern NJ, and far southeast NY. Moderate Risk for northern OH, northern PA, central NY, northern FL, central and southern GA, east-central AL, western MS, and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in part of east-central TX, western NC, northeast SC / southeast NC, central and southern NJ, eastern NY, western VT, CT, Long Island, RI, and southeast MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast MI, northern OH, southern ON, western NY, PA, northern NJ, and central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern and eastern AL, central MS, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, far southeast MA, northern SC, and western NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central and deep south TX, central and southern NJ, DE, and eastern MD. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017