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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 10, 2017

*** Epidemic Update - 10 July: First reports from VA. New reports from OH, NC, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie and Suffolk Counties, VA; Huron County, OH; McDowell County, NC; and Darlington County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 July: First report from NY. New reports from AL, NJ, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Erie County, NY; Houston, Macon, and Lee Counties, AL; Warren County, NJ; and Buncombe and Carteret County, NC. The report from Allen County, KY has been removed. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Scattered to numerous showers many areas. High pressure is sprawled over eastern North America early this week, delivering copious amounts of warm, humid air. A cold front will generate some rain in the northern areas. Scattered to numerous showers will occur daily in the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Portions of the mid-Atlantic and mid-South regions will be dry. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and lower Lakes / Northeast. Mixed to favorable conditions for epidemic spread surround most of Monday's and Tuesday's transport events. Most events track to the northeast on Monday, and to the east (northern sources) and northeast (other sources) on Tuesday. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, the southern half of AL, central and southern GA, SC, south-central and southeast NC, northern OH, southern ON, and eastern MI. Moderate Risk in east-central TX and the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest MS, northeast LA, wester / north-central / northeast NC, far southeast VA, northeast MI, NJ, far southeast PA, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, and western MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern OH, the southern 1/2 of NY, PA except the southeast, northern NJ, western CT, western MA, southern VT, FL, southern AL, southern GA, eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Moderate Risk in southern NH, central and eastern MA, RI, eastern CT, Long Island, central and southern NJ, southeast PA, eastern NC, central SC, central GA, central AL, western MS, far northeast LA, and southeast AR. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central TX, northern GA, western SC, and western and central NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017