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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 7, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 July: First report from NY. New reports from AL, NJ, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Erie County, NY; Houston, Macon, and Lee Counties, AL; Warren County, NJ; and Buncombe and Carteret County, NC. The report from Allen County, KY has been removed. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 July: New reports from NJ, PA, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Cumberland County, NJ; Columbia County, PA; and Clarendon County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

A fairly active summer pattern continues. Scattered PM showers and storms will impact many areas of eastern North America, aided by a humid environment and a series of fronts. Some places will be dry. Mostly northern sections will see more drying late Saturday into Sunday as high pressure moves in after the second front and before the third one arrives. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and parts of the North. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread occur during the northern transport events on Friday (many areas with High Risk) and across the southern U.S. each day (mixed conditions Friday and Saturday, favorable weather on Sunday). Transport events, in most cases, track near the sources and to the east to ENE.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast MI, northeast OH, southern ON, northern and eastern PA, western / central / southeast NY, Long Island, NJ, and northern DE. Moderate Risk in southern DE, eastern MD, a broad swath of central and southern NC, SC, central and southern GA, FL, southern AL, and southern MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in parts of southern and east-central TX, northern NC, eastern NY, southern VT, southwest NH, MA except the far east, RI, and CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk in southern MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, central and eastern SC, southeast NC, western NY, eastern PA, northern DE, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, and southeast MA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern DE, eastern MD, southeast VA, NC except the southeast , western SC, and parts of deep south and east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern AL, the southern half of GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk in southwest MS, northeast SC, and eastern NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NY and part of east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017