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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 5, 2017

*** Epidemic Update - 5 July: New reports from NJ, PA, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Cumberland County, NJ; Columbia County, PA; and Clarendon County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 July: First reports from MS and PA. New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS; Montour County, PA; and Person County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Variable and unsettled weather. A wavy front that extends from the Carolinas to KS will shift position and become more northeast-to-southwest oriented on Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers will fall over much of the central and eastern U.S. and southern Canada in association with this front, and also with a second one dropping into the Great Lakes / Midwest. Sky cover is greatest near the front; sunny to partly cloudy skies will be more common elsewhere. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in KY and the mid-Atlantic states, possible many other areas. Transport events during midweek tend to track near the sources and to the northeast, with a few differences each day depending on position of the front. Conditions are favorable for epidemic spread in the southern Ohio Valley both days, and in the lower mid-Atlantic Wednesday and the upper mid-Atlantic Thursday. Slightly favorable weather will occur over much of the southern U.S. and parts of the North.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central KY, northeast NC, and southeast VA. Moderate Risk in central MS and southwest AL. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, northern and eastern SC, southeast NC, and eastern KY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in north-central TN, central and eastern KY, southern NJ, DE, MD, northeast VA, and most of central and eastern PA. Moderate Risk in northeast OH, northwest PA, central NY, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and eastern TX, central and eastern MS, central and western AL, northern FL and the panhandle, central and southern GA, SC, and central and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017