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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 16, 2017
 

*** Forecast Note - 14 June: The CDM website will be unavailable for use on Saturday, June 17 from at least 7am to 7pm. This is due to a scheduled power outage at the NC State Climate Office, who hosts our site. ***
 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 June: New reports from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Lee and Decatur Counties, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 June: New reports from SC, NC, and TX. CDM has been confirmed in Charleston County, SC; Wilson and Lenoir Counties, NC; and Brazos County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Active weather eastern half; mostly dry west of the MS River. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and mainly late day showers and storms are forecast for areas east of the MS River. Showers will be most numerous in the Carolinas / GA / FL Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, rain will be focused toward the northern sections (OK / AR / TN Valley) ahead of a cold front. Areas west of the MS will be mostly dry. Hot with highs in the 90s with some 100s TX / OK. Lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along the eastern Seaboard. For the first time this season, epidemic spread along the entirety of the eastern U.S. is a distinct possibility. Transport events are moving generally northeast from the sources in the Southeast / NC. Conditions are mixed to favorable each day during these events. Risk predictions are elevated for most eastern states, and are dependent on the day-to-day weather and the degree of expected washout during the various transport events. The TX events, experiencing unfavorable conditions, pose little to no threat.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL except the western panhandle, far southeast AL, the southern half of GA, the central and eastern Carolinas, and southeast VA. Low Risk in east-central VA, southern MD, and DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 17

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, central and eastern NC, central and eastern VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in far northern FL, the eastern panhandle, central and southern GA, central and eastern SC and the neighboring border counties of NC. Low Risk in northern MD, northern DE, NJ, and eastern PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, June 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk for northern FL, the eastern panhandle, the southern half of GA, central and eastern sections of SC and NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and central and southern NJ. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England (MA / CT / RI), and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017