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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, March 10, 2017

*** Epidemic Update - 8 March: First reports from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Citrus County and Miami-Dade County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Mostly dry and cooler Friday and Saturday; unsettled Sunday. A cold front pushes through the region today. A few showers are expected with its passage, but most locations will get little precipitation under partly to variably cloudy skies. The next system gathers itself in the south-central U.S. on Saturday and moves into the Southeast on Sunday. Greater cloud cover and better chances of rain are expected. Highs in the 70s and 80s Friday, 60s and 70s Saturday, and 50s to 70s Sunday. Lows from the 40s to 60s.



Overview: Epidemic spread possible. Unfavorable to slightly favorable conditions surround Friday's and Saturday's transport events. Saturday's event out of north-central FL is notable in that some live spores moving WNW may make it to the FL panhandle area and be washed out Sunday, but no rain is expected for that event near the source. Mixed conditions will be present for Sunday's event coming out of north-central FL. That event curls clockwise to the south. Slightly favorable weather is anticipated in southern FL. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, March 10

Low Risk for cucurbits in far southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, March 11

Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, the eastern FL panhandle, and nearby sections of southeast AL and southwest GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, March 12

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in a broad area of central FL. Low Risk for southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017