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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 2, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 August: First Reports from WV and IN; New Reports from PA, VA, AL, NY, and OH. CDM has been reported in Mercer County, WV; Washington County, IN; Montour and Erie Counties, PA; Amelia County, VA; Cullman County, AL; Orleans County, NY; and Ashland and Holmes Counties, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: New Reports from MI and PA. CDM has been reported in Bay and Saginaw Counties, MI; and Lackawanna, Northumberland, Lycoming, and Montour Counties, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Variable and largely unsettled weather this weekend. The mid-week front lies along the East Coast / Southeast and will dissipate with time. Yet another cold front will begin pushing into the Great Lakes / Midwest today. It will reach the Atlantic coast / mid-South on Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers or storms will be focused near the fronts. More isolated activity or dry weather will occur elsewhere. Highs in the 70s and 80s North to 90s and 100s South. Lows from the 50s to the 70s. Cooler behind the front across the northern areas on Sunday.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Great Lakes / upper Ohio Valley / upper mid-Atlantic. Transport events will be driven by the flows ahead of the approaching cold front (east to northeast) and the flows after it passes (southeast to south). Most events on Friday move east to northeast; by Sunday that trend is reversed with the front near the Atlantic coast. Conditions will be most favorable for epidemic spread along and around the main cold front on Friday and Saturday. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, southern MI, southern ON, northern OH, western PA, and western NY. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central MI, and central and northern FL. Low Risk for the coastal plains of GA and the Carolinas, and central and northern NYMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 3

HIGH Risk in the upper Ohio Valley and upper mid-Atlantic regions ... southern and eastern IN, OH, northern WV, northern MD, PA, NJ, northern DE, and western Long Island. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in eastern Long Island, southern New England, all but northern NY, eastern KY, southern WV, southern MD , southern DE, most of northern and eastern VA, eastern sections of the Carolinas, and the FL peninsula. Low Risk for southeast MI / southern ON, southern and extreme southwest VA, eastern TN, the central and western Carolinas, GA, AL, and the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 4

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL, AL, GA, the Carolinas, and southeast VA. Low Risk for eastern sections of TN and KY, southern / central / eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, NJ, Long Island, southern New England, central and eastern PA, and all but northern NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 31, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: New Reports from MI and PA. CDM has been reported in Bay and Saginaw Counties, MI; and Lackawanna, Northumberland, Lycoming, and Montour Counties, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: New Reports from KY, VA, MI, and DE. CDM has been reported in Newago County, MI; Pike County, KY; Newcastle County, DE; and Powhatan and Montgomery Counties, VA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather East; mostly dry Central. There is a stationary front over the South and another front moving into the Midwest later today. The stationary front will edge north and east while the next front approaches it as it swings to the south and east. The upshot will be considerable cloudiness with rain / showers / storms for the east-central and eastern U.S. over the next 2 days. A few showers are expected in the Plains / Midwest in association with this next front, but most areas in that region will be dry. Highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s, with a few cooler / warmer readings far North and southern Plains.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Great Lakes and East Coast. Conditions will be favorable for epidemic spread from the Great Lakes southward to the eastern Gulf Coast for both Wednesday's and Thursday's transport events. Almost all of Wednesday's events track near the source or north to northeast. Thursday's events show more variation; the Great Lakes' events move southeast, while most others move near the source or northeast. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 31

HIGH Risk for the East Coast states from AL / GA through MD / DE, plus the FL panhandle / northern FL, eastern sections of TN and KY, southern and eastern WV, central PA ... also northern OH, northwest PA, western NY, southern ON, and nearly all of lower MI. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, NJ, eastern PA, central and eastern NY, east-central and northern KY into southern OH and southeast INMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 1

HIGH Risk all along the East Coast from northern FL / FL panhandle / southern AL /GA northeastward through central and eastern NY, Long Island, and all of  New England except ME. Moderate Risk for cucurbits to the west of that extended region, from the Lower Lakes (eastern MI / southern ON / western NY / western PA / northern OH) down through eastern and southern OH, WV, eastern sections of KY and TN, extreme southwest parts of VA and NC, northern GA, central AL, plus southern FL. Low Risk for western MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 29, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: New Reports from KY, VA, MI, and DE. CDM has been reported in Newago County, MI; Pike County, KY; Newcastle County, DE; and Powhatan and Montgomery Counties, VA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 July: First Reports from KY and CT; New Reports from PA, VA, OH, and NC. CDM has been reported in Breathitt and Fayette Counties, KY; Hartford County, CT; Chatham, Haywood, and Henderson Counties, NC; Delaware and Chester Counties, PA; Westmoreland and Louisa Counties, VA; and Sandusky County, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***   

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

A short period of more tranquil weather early this week. The weekend front has behaved like its predecessor last week. It's stalled out over the East Coast / South / Plains. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will shift east with time. As the front wavers largely in place, showers will occur in the Northeast and Southeast. Heavier rains are forecast for the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley. Mostly dry elsewhere. Highs mostly 70s to 90s, lows mostly 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic (both days) and the lower Lakes region (Monday). Most transport events move near the source regions or to the E / SE. The events out of the Southeast will encounter slightly favorable to mixed conditions each day. Some cloudiness and a chance of showers today in the lower Lakes area will give way to less favorable conditions for Tuesday's events. Unfavorable conditions dominate all other events.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 29

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern AL, southern GA, eastern sections of the Carolinas, southern ON, northwest PA, and western NY. Low Risk for northeast NC, southeast VA, eastern MI, and northern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 30

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL, GA, and near the coasts of the Carolinas. Low Risk for the FL panhandle, southern AL, and central SC into eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 26, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 July: First Reports from KY and CT; New Reports from PA, VA, OH, and NC. CDM has been reported in Breathitt and Fayette Counties, KY; Hartford County, CT; Chatham, Haywood, and Henderson Counties, NC; Delaware and Chester Counties, PA; Westmoreland and Louisa Counties, VA; and Sandusky County, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 24 July: New Reports from MI, PA, NY, and MD. CDM has been reported in Tuscola County, MI; Montgomery County, PA; Erie County, NY; and Cecil County, MD. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***  

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active and variable weather. Another cold front will be swinging through the central and eastern U.S. / southern Canada over the next 3 days, approaching the East and Gulf coasts on Sunday. Showers and storms will occur along and ahead of the front, mainly in the Central and parts of the South on Friday, most areas Saturday, and mainly the East Coast by Sunday. Still cool most locations for late July. Highs mostly in the 70s to 90s, lows mostly 50s to 70s, with some even cooler readings far northern U.S. / southern Canada.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Great Lakes and East Coast. Friday's transport events move near the sources for all but the Great Lakes, where they move to the north. The most favorable conditions will be found in lower MI and southern New England. Most of Saturday's transport events move to the north or northeast. Highest risks are expected in the Great Lakes, southern Appalachians, and western sections of the Southeast. Sunday's transport events track to the east or northeast in most cases. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread continue to shift eastward with the advancing front, lying along the East Coast. Lingering favorable conditions in parts of the Great Lakes also give rise to elevated risks there.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 26

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in western MI, CT, and Long Island. Moderate Risk in FL / GA into the western Carolinas. Low Risk for southwest VA / west-central NC / eastern SC, plus the rest of lower MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 27

HIGH Risk for eastern MI, northern OH, southern ON, northwest PA, western NY, southern and central AL into western GA, the western Carolinas, northeast TN, southwest and extreme southwest VA, and southern WV. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southwest MI, eastern KY, FL, southern GA, central parts of the Carolinas, VA, and MD and PA. Low Risk for eastern sections of the Carolinas / VA / MD / PA, plus DE, NJ, and central and eastern NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 28

HIGH Risk in southern MI, central and eastern sections of the Carolinas / VA / MD, eastern PA, DE, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern VT and NH, and most of southern New England. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern ON, western NY, FL, GA, eastern AL, and the western Carolinas. Low Risk for AL, northern OH, northern PA, most of NY and VT, western NH, and southern Quebec. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 24, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 24 July: New Reports from MI, PA, NY, and MD. CDM has been reported in Tuscola County, MI; Montgomery County, PA; Erie County, NY; and Cecil County, MD. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***  

*** Epidemic Update - 22 July: First Report from NY; New Reports from PA and NC. CDM has been reported in Suffolk County, NY; Lancaster County, PA; and Ashe County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S.

Unsettled East, South, and Plains; mostly dry Great Lakes / Ohio Valley / Midwest. An extensive cold front forms a horseshoe over the central and eastern U.S., draped along the East Coast, continuing through the South, and reaching northwestward along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. High pressure, with some cool air for late July, is centered over the Great Lakes. The front will push farther to the south and east, serving as a focus for rain or showers. Another front will move in the northern Plains / upper Midwest late Thursday into Friday. Wide range of temperatures, with 70s to 90s, and some 60s far North and 100s South-central. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in part of the Southeast, possible elsewhere along the East Coast. Wednesday's transport events move near the source or to the northeast from the East Coast sources, under a variety of conditions. Best chance of epidemic spread in parts of AL / GA / FL. Unfavorable conditions dominate events moving south to southwest from the Great Lakes. On Thursday ... transport events track near the source or to the southwest from most sources, with the cold front now off of most of the Atlantic coast. Slight favorable to mixed conditions are expected for the East Coast events, with others remaining unfavorable.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 24

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, and central and southern AL. Moderate Risk in central FL, the Carolinas, and southeast VA. Low Risk for southern IL, MD, DE, NJ, southeast PA, Long Island, and extreme southern New EnglandMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 25

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, most of GA, the Carolinas, south-central and southeast VA, extreme eastern NJ, and Long Island. Low Risk for southern FL, the FL panhandle, most of AL, northwest GA, eastern MD, DE, and southern and central NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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