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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 27, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 May: First report from TX. CDM has been reported on watermelon in a field in Hidalgo County, TX. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 May: First report from GA. New Report from FL. CDM has been reported on cucumber in a field in Worth County, GA. CDM has been confirmed on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Hillsborough County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Chance of showers parts of TX and FL peninsula; mostly dry otherwise. High pressure centered off the NC coast is largely in control of the weather. Major frontal systems will not intrude into the southern U.S. However, onshore flow may trigger some showers in FL or along the immediate Gulf Coast. Showers are also possible in TX along the dry line, mainly in the western sections and on Tuesday. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Mixed to favorable conditions central and southern FL; potential for spread to southern Appalachians or Gulf Coast?. Trajectories out of southern FL drive to the west on Monday, to the WNW on Tuesday. Mixed conditions on Monday in southern FL become more favorable on Tuesday and expand northward. Tuesday's events may impact the central Gulf Coast. Though unlikely, circumstances warrant risk above the minimal category. For the GA events ... both Monday's and Tuesday's event curls northwest and northeast, through western GA into eastern TN. Monday's event draws interest in that any live spores that arrive in the southern Appalachians Monday night or Tuesday morning may coincide with an isolated or scattered shower. Sky conditions during this afternoon's transport will likely be too sunny to support much spore survival. However, like Tuesday's events out of southern FL, there is only very slight favorability, but enough to push the risk out of the minimal category. In southern TX ... hot and dry conditions near the source and during transport (to the northwest) will prohibit any epidemic spread.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 27

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 28

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Moderate Risk for central FL. Low Risk in southern and central LA and far southeast TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 24, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 22 May: First report from GA. New Report from FL. CDM has been reported on cucumber in a field in Worth County, GA. CDM has been confirmed on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Hillsborough County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 *** Epidemic Update - 3-20 May: No new reports or updates. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Dry weather returns. The cold front has reached southern GA this morning and continues to push southward. It will reach southern FL and begin to dissipate on Saturday. High pressure spills down the eastern U.S. behind the front. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and dry weather. A shower is possible in southern FL Friday or Saturday. Highs in the 80s, lows from the 40s to 60s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Transport events out of FL track SSE and then southwest for Friday, and rapidly west Saturday and Sunday as high pressure asserts its influence. Risk of epidemic spread is restricted to the near-source areas in southern FL Friday and Saturday, and will be Low (mostly sunny skies, only a slight chance of a shower). The GA events move S/SW Friday, near the source Saturday, and to the northeast on Sunday. The daily change in character is due to the orientation and movement of the incoming ridge of surface high pressure. Conditions will be unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition in each case.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 24

Low Risk to cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 25

Low Risk to cucurbits in far southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 26

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 22, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 22 May: First report from GA. New Report from FL. CDM has been reported on cucumber in a field in Worth County, GA. CDM has been confirmed on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Hillsborough County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 *** Epidemic Update - 3-20 May: No new reports or updates. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Unsettled through midweek. The current pattern of partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered to numerous showers continues for the next 2 days. A cold front will dive into the Southeast late Thursday into Friday; this will dry out the weather for most areas this weekend. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in GA and central / southern FL. Conditions are mixed (GA) to favorable (FL) during Wednesday's transport events. GA's event moves north and northeast; the FL events move slowly east near the sources. Mixed conditions are expected for Thursday's events, all of which track east to southeast. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 22

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in southern FL. Moderate Risk for south-central FL. Moderate to Low Risk in an arc from southwest GA into northeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 23

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern GA and far northeast FL. Low to Moderate Risk in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 20, 2013
 

 *** Epidemic Update - 3-20 May: No new reports or updates. ***

 *** Epidemic Update - 1 May: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Unsettled weather much of this week. Bermuda High off the coast will pump warm, moist air into the region for the foreseeable future. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Showers will occur daily, mostly in the afternoons and evenings. This pattern may persist for some time. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s to low 70s.  


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along the FL peninsula. Conditions will be favorable for epidemic spread during the early-week transport events. Monday's transport events move slowly west to WNW, limiting the potential for spread to the southern peninsula. Tuesday's events move to the NNW up the peninsula; epidemic spread is possible into northern FL.        

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 20

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 21

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern and west-central FL. Moderate Risk for east-central and northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 17, 2013
 

 *** Epidemic Update - 10-17 May: No new reports or updates. ***

 *** Epidemic Update - 1 May: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Unsettled period begins Saturday. There is a strong feed of warm, humid air into the region courtesy of high pressure in the southwest Atlantic. After a mostly dry day today (save for some showers in southern FL), scattered showers or storms are possible for most areas of the region Saturday and Sunday. The main front and heaviest rainfall will remain to the north of the region, and the weather will be somewhat unsettled well into next week. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.  


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible for southern / central FL. Transport events out of southern FL track slowly WNW to northwest Friday and Saturday. Sunday's events move more rapidly west to WNW. Conditions will be slightly favorable to mixed for epidemic spread. Impacts should be confined to central and southern FL. Transport and deposition to other growing regions appears unlikely. The orientation of the high pressure ridge extending across the lower Southeast is yielding events that track more to the northwest than north, and Friday's and Saturday's events move slower than it once appeared they may.        

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 17

Low to Moderate Risk to cucurbits in west-central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 18

Low to Moderate Risk to cucurbits in west-central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 19

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in south-central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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