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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 24, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 24 July: New Reports from MI, PA, NY, and MD. CDM has been reported in Tuscola County, MI; Montgomery County, PA; Erie County, NY; and Cecil County, MD. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***  

*** Epidemic Update - 22 July: First Report from NY; New Reports from PA and NC. CDM has been reported in Suffolk County, NY; Lancaster County, PA; and Ashe County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S.

Unsettled East, South, and Plains; mostly dry Great Lakes / Ohio Valley / Midwest. An extensive cold front forms a horseshoe over the central and eastern U.S., draped along the East Coast, continuing through the South, and reaching northwestward along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. High pressure, with some cool air for late July, is centered over the Great Lakes. The front will push farther to the south and east, serving as a focus for rain or showers. Another front will move in the northern Plains / upper Midwest late Thursday into Friday. Wide range of temperatures, with 70s to 90s, and some 60s far North and 100s South-central. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in part of the Southeast, possible elsewhere along the East Coast. Wednesday's transport events move near the source or to the northeast from the East Coast sources, under a variety of conditions. Best chance of epidemic spread in parts of AL / GA / FL. Unfavorable conditions dominate events moving south to southwest from the Great Lakes. On Thursday ... transport events track near the source or to the southwest from most sources, with the cold front now off of most of the Atlantic coast. Slight favorable to mixed conditions are expected for the East Coast events, with others remaining unfavorable.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 24

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, and central and southern AL. Moderate Risk in central FL, the Carolinas, and southeast VA. Low Risk for southern IL, MD, DE, NJ, southeast PA, Long Island, and extreme southern New EnglandMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 25

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, most of GA, the Carolinas, south-central and southeast VA, extreme eastern NJ, and Long Island. Low Risk for southern FL, the FL panhandle, most of AL, northwest GA, eastern MD, DE, and southern and central NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 22, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 22 July: First Report from NY; New Reports from PA and NC. CDM has been reported in Suffolk County, NY; Lancaster County, PA; and Ashe County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 July: New Reports from NC, VA, and MD. CDM has been reported in Polk County, NC; Chesterfield County, VA; and St. Mary's County, MD. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S.

Active summer pattern. Expect partly to mostly cloudy most areas with scattered showers or storms in the afternoons and evenings. More numerous showers  are expected today along the Appalachians into the Southeast, and on Tuesday near a cold front pushing through the northern tier. Highs in the 80s and 90s with some 70s North and 100s Plains. Lows mostly 60s and 70s with some 50s far North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along the East Coast and in the Lake Erie region. Transport events will involve favorable conditions in nearly all cases over the next two days. Events track to the north and northeast on Monday. On Tuesday, those from the Great Lakes move east and southeast, while others move northeast.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern OH / southeast MI / southern ON, and along the Eastern Seaboard from AL / GA / northern FL through the Carolinas, VA, MD, DE, NJ, eastern PA, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, and RI. Moderate Risk in all of lower MI, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for western PA and western NYMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 23

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the East Coast as on Monday, and extending farther north to include all of southern New England, southern VT, and southern NH, plus northern and eastern OH, southeast MI, southern ON, western NY, and western PA. Moderate Risk for southwest MI and central and southern FL. Low Risk for central PA, northern WV, western MD, central VT and NH, and southern ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 19, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 19 July: New Reports from NC, VA, and MD. CDM has been reported in Polk County, NC; Chesterfield County, VA; and St. Mary's County, MD. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 July: New Reports from OH, AL, VA, and MI. CDM has been reported in Wood County, OH; Chilton County, AL; Williamsburg City, VA; and Lenawee County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***  

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S.

Warm to hot with showers possible most areas. The main weather features are strong high pressure centered offshore (providing warm, humid air) and a frontal system that now extends from central ON to the central Plains. Scattered showers are possible most areas on 2 or 3 days out of the next 3. More numerous showers and storms will occur near the cold front as moves south and east with time. Highs well into the 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s, some cooler readings are expected behind the front.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and parts of the East Coast. Transport events will be moving near the sources or to the east or northeast for those sources near / ahead of the frontal system. Events out of the Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday, behind the front, will track to the southeast (Saturday) or curl northwest (Sunday). Conditions will be favorable in portions of the Southeast each day, and near the front as its unsettled weather influences the transport events out of the Northeast (Saturday) and mid-Atlantic (Sunday). Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are expected otherwise.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 19

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, southern AL, and far southern MS. Moderate Risk in southern FL, central and northern AL, northern GA, SC, western and central NC, southern MI, northern OH, southern ON, western PA, and western NY. Low Risk for eastern NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ, eastern PA, Long Island, central and eastern NY, most of New England except parts of MEMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 20

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, GA, AL, eastern PA, NJ, Long Island, and far southern New England. Moderate Risk for southeast MI, northern and central OH, western PA, northern GA, central and western Carolinas, eastern MD, and DE. Low Risk for southern ON, western NY, northwest PA, eastern SC, eastern and east-central NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 21

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northwest SC, most of NC, central and eastern VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Moderate Risk for FL, AL, GA, most of SC, southeast NC, northern MD, northern DE, southeast PA, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 17, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 July: New Reports from OH, AL, VA, and MI. CDM has been reported in Wood County, OH; Chilton County, AL; Williamsburg City, VA; and Lenawee County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***  

*** Epidemic Update - 15 July: First reports from MI and VA. New Report from MD. CDM has been reported in Monroe and Allegan counties, MI; Accomack County, VA; and Wicomico County, MD. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S.

Wet TX and FL; dry central U.S.; variable weather North and East. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley covers most of the central and eastern U.S.. This high will shift southeast with time and merge with existing high pressure centered offshore. Dry weather is expected over a broad region of the central United States. Rainfall is possible or even likely "around the edges" due to a cold front (northern U.S. / southern Canada), an upper-level disturbance (TX), and some weak surface features (East). Quite warm with highs well into the 80s and 90s with some 100s Plains. Lows upper 60s to low 80s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL, possible in Southeast / mid-Atlantic / lower Lakes. Wednesday's transport events move near the source or east from the Great Lakes, near source or southwest from most others. Thursday's events track near the source or northeast from most sources. The weather will vary day-to-day for transport events from most sources, generally from slightly favorable to mixed or vice-versa. Conditions will be favorable in FL and in most of TX. The TX risks are held down due to the otherwise hot and dry weather experienced recently.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 17

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk for southern MI, northern OH, southern ON, western PA, western NY, south-central and southeast NC, SC, eastern GA, and deep South TX. Low Risk in central NY and PA, southeast VA, eastern NC, southeast LA, southern MS, central and southern AL, central and southern GAMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast MI, southern ON, AL, southeast MS, and the western FL panhandle, and deep South TX. Low Risk in south-central MI, northern OH through western PA / western and central NY, and along the East Coast from the eastern FL panhandle / GA through the Carolinas, VA, MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 15, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 July: First reports from MI and VA. New Report from MD. CDM has been reported in Monroe and Allegan counties, MI; Accomack County, VA; and Wicomico County, MD. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 12 July: New Reports from OH, NJ, and DE. CDM has been reported in Seneca and Sandusky Counties, OH, Hunterdon County, NJ and Kent County, DE. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S.

Unsettled South, mostly dry elsewhere. High pressure over the mid-Atlantic / Ohio Valley (at both the surface and aloft) will govern the weather early this week. Scattered to numerous showers or storms are forecast over much of the South each day, especially over the southern Plains where an upper-level Low is helping generate a lot of rain. Dry weather, or perhaps isolated showers, is/are expected elsewhere. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Most transport events are moving near the source / east or southeast from the northern sources, near the source / west from the other sources. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition are quite favorable in the Southeast on Monday. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are expected to the north of the High Risk areas and in the Great Lakes on Monday, and over a broad area of the Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic on Tuesday  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern SC, southern GA, southern AL, and southern MS. Moderate Risk for southeast NC, central SC, northern GA, and central and northern AL. Low Risk in southern MI, southern ON, northern OH, southern NC, and near the TX sourceMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 15

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern sections of GA / AL / MS, and southeast LA. Low Risk in southeast VA, the Carolinas, central and northern GA, central and northern AL, central MS, and near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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