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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - November 9, 2012
 

*** Forecast Note - 9 November: Today's forecasts will conclude the 2012 CDM forecasting season. We hope the forecasts and other information on the website have aided everyone in the management of another active disease season. Please do not hesitate to contact a member of our staff if you have any questions or comments! TK ***

*** Epidemic Update - 2-9 November: No new reports or updates. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***   

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Mostly dry with a warming trend; showers TX / MS Valley Sunday. High pressure will rule the weather this weekend for most areas, with sunny to partly cloudy skies and little to no rain. A frontal system now in the western U.S. will move into the central U.S. with time, spreading showers into TX and the lower MS Valley on Sunday. Highs mostly in the 60s and 70s warming to the 70s and 80s by Sunday. Lows 30s and 40s East with 50s and 60s elsewhere.


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Unfavorable conditions dominant; increased risk south-central areas on Sunday. Nearly all transport events are benign this forecast period. The notable exceptions are the events out of TX and southern LA on Sunday. Increasingly favorable conditions will produce Low to Moderate Risk for the LA events and High Risk near the TX source. All other events will encounter unfavorable conditions for epidemic spread. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, November 9

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, November 10

Low Risk to cucurbits near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, November 11

HIGH Risk to cucurbits near the TX source, tapering to Low later in the event. Low to Moderate Risk in LA and southwest MS. Minimal Risk other areas.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2012

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - July 28, 2010

 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 July: New counties in SC, DE, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Horry County, SC, Kent County, DE, and Jackson County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History page for further details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 July: New counties in PA and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Centre County, PA, and Clinton and St. Claire Counties, MI. Please see the Epidemic History page for further details. ***


Regional Weather: Central / Eastern U.S., southern Canada

Cold front moving into Great Lakes / upper Ohio Valley today, Northeast / mid-Atlantic / lower Ohio Valley on Thursday. Scattered showers and storms are expected along and ahead of the cold front as it moves east/south. Active weather will occur in TX on Wednesday also with the moisture feed off the Gulf. High pressure behind the front will generate dry weather over the Great Lakes on Thursday and bring some cooler temperatures. Today's shower activity in TX will lessen on Thursday. Highs in the 80's and 90's with some 70's North. Lows in the 60's and 70's with some 50's in the North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Favorable weather on Wednesday around most of the source regions. Moderate to High Risk over a broad portion of the Great Lakes, parts of the Southeast, and portions of TX. Conditions improve somewhat on Thursday. Higher risks shift toward the eastern Seaboard.

  Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 28


Moderate to HIGH Risk to cucurbits in and around the southern Great Lakes, including southern Ontario, MI, Ohio, PA, and NY. Low Risk extends farther into upstate NY, northern New England, and southern Quebec. Moderate to HIGH Risk is forecast in the lower mid-Atlantic and Southeast, maximized in the areas of greatest cloud cover and observed / anticipated shower activity. HIGH Risk scenarios are also found in TX as the events move northwest or north. Minimal risk most other areas.


  Risk Prediction Map for Day 2: Thursday, July 29


Elevated risk shifts toward the East Coast as the front progresses east, high pressure moves over the Great Lakes, and conditions become less favorable in TX. A mixture of risks to cucurbits, some Moderate to HIGH, is forecast in the eastern states from the FL panhandle through southern New England. Lingering clouds or showers brings some risk to cucurbits south of the lower Lakes. Low to Moderate Risk for the TX events. Minimal risk most other areas.  
Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - July 21, 2010

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 July: New counties in MD, TX, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Wicomico County, MD, Houston County, TX, and Ingham County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History page for further details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 July: New counties in NC and TX. CDM has been confirmed in Robeson County, NC and Brazos County, TX. Please see the Epidemic History page for further details. ***


Regional Weather: Central / Eastern U.S., southern Canada

Variable weather across the North; mostly dry and hot southern U.S. with scattered showers S/SE TX. A frontal system snakes its way from the Midwest through the upper Ohio Valley and into the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The Bermuda High centered offshore extends well westward over the South, pumping in warm, humid air. Expect scattered showers many areas today with the north-central, lower Southeast, and much of the Plains staying dry. On Thursday ... the eastern side of the front sags south, the western end shifts north into the Great Lakes, and the upper-level ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S. strengthens. Active weather moves into the north-central U.S. and Great Lakes. A few isolated to scattered showers are possible Ohio Valley and Southeast. More showers for south and southeast TX are anticipated. Overall a drier day on Thursday. Hot summertime temperatures are on tap with increasing heat south the wavy frontal boundary. Highs in the 80's and 90's with a few 100's. Lows in the 60's and 70's.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: The most favorable conditions and highest risks to cucurbits are along and east of the lower Lakes on Wednesday. Mixed conditions will be found in TX and parts of the mid-Atlantic. On Thursday ... mixed to favorable conditions in southern and eastern TX; favorable conditions in the upper Midwest will spread into the Great Lakes as the day progresses, and risks will be elevated near a few sources in the Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic.

  Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 21


HIGH and Moderate Risk to cucurbits near to and east of the sources in the lower Great Lakes, with Low Risk to some surrounding areas. Mixed conditions in parts of the mid-Atlantic and TX lead to Moderate Risk for some of these events. Minimal risk most other areas.


  Risk Prediction Map for Day 2: Thursday, July 22


HIGH Risk to cucurbits in southern TX and parts of WI. Deteriorating conditions in MI lead to Moderate Risk around those sources with lower risk farther south and east. Mixed conditions are expected for a few transport events in NC and south-central and eastern TX, with Moderate Risk to cucurbits. Low to minimal risk otherwise. 
Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - June 30, 2010

 

*** Epidemic Update - 30 June: First report from New York. CDM has been confirmed in Erie and Niagara Counties, NY. Please see the Epidemic History page for further details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Lenoir and New Hanover Counties, NC. Please see the Epidemic History page for further details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.; southern Canada / lower Great Lakes

Cool and dry across the northern areas; unsettled along a stalled front in the South; Hurricane Alex impacting southern TX and the Gulf Coast. Moisture is streaming northward from the Gulf, enhanced by the presence of Alex in the western Gulf. It will be interacting with a front stalled east-to-west across the southern United States. Clouds are prevalent and showers are likely. Best chance of rain is near the Gulf Coast. Heavy rains are expected toward southern TX in association with Alex. The hurricane is expected to make landfall in northeast Mexico tonight, just South of the Border with TX. Meanwhile ... high pressure centered over the Great Lakes dominates the weather north of the stalled southern front. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected with no rain for the next several days. Temperatures have finally moderated from the high values experienced for the month of June. Highs in the 60's and 70's in the North, 80's and a few 90's in the South. Lows in the 40's and 50's much of the North, 60's and 70's South.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Conditions are favorable for epidemic spread along the Gulf Coast states. Cucurbits in areas west of the known sources in the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic will be at elevated risk Wednesday and Thursday. Soggy conditions in southern TX will place cucurbits in that region at elevated risk, as well. Unfavorable conditions are expected for the events out of the sources in OH, NY, and southern Ontario. 

  Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, June 30


Transport events out of GA move WNW, and those out of the Carolinas move southwest. The combination of these pathways and the favorable weather results in potential impacts to areas farther west. HIGH Risk for cucurbits in portions of the Carolinas, GA, the FL panhandle, southeast AL, and south of the sources in TX. Moderate Risk for parts of SC, GA, and AL. Low Risk for western AL and a sliver of southern GA / northern FL. Minimal Risk otherwise.


  Risk Prediction Map for Day 2: Thursday, July 1


The weather and transport episodes for Thursday are similar to those for Wednesday. The higher risks will be near the sources in TX, the Carolinas, and GA. Risks will extend along the Gulf Coast states. HIGH Risk near and west of the TX sources, and to cucurbits from eastern NC southwestward through southern GA and the eastern panhandle. Moderate Risk for parts of SC, central and northern GA, and eastern AL. Low Risk for most of AL, the western FL panhandle, and eastern MS. Minimal Risk otherwise
Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE

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