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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 1, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1 July: New Report from NC. CDM has been reported on cucumber in Martin County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 June: New Reports from AL, SC, and NC. CDM has been reported on watermelon (SC), squash (NC), and cucumber (NC, SC) in locations in Baldwin County, AL; Barnwell County SC; and Sampson County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***


 

Regional Weather: Southern / Eastern U.S.

Wet in the East through midweek. A plume of tropical moisture combines to surge north through the eastern U.S. early this week. A stationary front lies roughly along the spine of the Appalachians ... down through the Gulf Coast ... then northwest through the southern High Plains. Rainy weather for the Ohio Valley and East Coast states. The heaviest rain will fall east of the mountains. Mostly dry otherwise, though there may be a shower in western or southern TX near that end of the front. Highs in the 70s and 80s with some 60s North today and some 90s South. Lows mostly 60s and 70s. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. Transport events move north or northeast each day from the eastern sources. Conditions remain highly favorable for epidemic spread. Expect more of the same through the midweek forecast. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 1

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula, GA, NC, SC, central and southern VA, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and central and southern NJ. Low Risk for southern AL, the FL panhandle, central and eastern WV, northern and eastern VA, most of MD, far eastern OH, PA, the southern half of NY, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, most of GA, SC, NC except the far west, VA except the far southwest, eastern WV, MD, DE, southern PA, NJ, and Long Island. Moderate Risk for northeast PA, southeast NY, southern New England, southern AL and the FL panhandle. Low Risk for northern GA and the far western Carolinas, central NY, and southern sections of VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 28, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 June: New Reports from AL, SC, and NC. CDM has been reported on watermelon (SC), squash (NC), and cucumber (NC, SC) in locations in Baldwin County, AL; Barnwell County SC; and Sampson County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 June: First reports from AL and DE. CDM has been reported on cucumber in the sentinel plot in Escambia County, AL and in a field in Sussex County, DE. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 24 June: First report from MD. New report from NC. CDM has been reported on cucumber in fields in Caroline County, MD and Franklin County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern / Eastern U.S.

Wet, active weather in the East through at least the middle of next week. A very unusual, highly-amplified upper-level flow pattern has become established over the U.S. ... with a ridge in the West and a trough in the East-central. This setup will persist well into next week. At the surface, a cold front now moving into the eastern and southern U.S. will become stationary as the flows aloft and at the surface become parallel to one another. The result will be an extended continuation of the unsettled weather in the East-central and East. Still hot and dry south-central U.S.. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along the East Coast for many days. Transport events (save those from TX) move northeast Friday and Saturday, north to northeast on Sunday. Conditions will be favorable for survivable transport and deposition in most cases, with the usual day-to-day or source-to-source variation. The same areas along the Eastern Seaboard will see repeated instances of potential epidemic spread. This will occur for at least the next 5 days of transport events, possible more, while the wet weather pattern in the East holds sway

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 28

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern GA and northern FL. Moderate Risk in southern AL, FL panhandle, central and southern FL, and the East Coast from the central and eastern Carolinas through southern New England / southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 29

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the East Coast from southern AL and the FL panhandle / northern FL northeastward through southern NJ and southeast PA. Moderate Risk for central and southern FL, northeast PA, northern NJ, Long Island, southeast NY and southern New EnglandMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, June 30

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the East Coast from southern NJ / southeast PA down through central and southern GA and the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk farther inland ... central PA, western MD, eastern WV, western VA, and parts of the western Carolinas. Low Risk in southern AL / FL panhandle, Long Island, southern New England, southern VT and NH, and most of NY except the far west and far north. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, June 26, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 June: First reports from AL and DE. CDM has been reported on cucumber in the sentinel plot in Escambia County, AL and in a field in Sussex County, DE. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 24 June: First report from MD. New report from NC. CDM has been reported on cucumber in fields in Caroline County, MD and Franklin County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern / Eastern U.S.

Unsettled East, dry South-central. Showery summertime pattern continues for the foreseeable future in the East. The Bermuda High is supplying warm, humid air. A few weak surface features and some upper-level impulses will help trigger daily showers and storms. A cold front, urged along by a shifting upper-level pattern, will approach the East late Thursday into Friday. Hot and dry south-central U.S.. Wet weather is expected along the East Coast through the weekend into early next week.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along the East Coast. Transport events from most sources move north to northeast each day. Conditions during the transport events will vary day-to-day between mixed and favorable, with the more favorable of the two days being Thursday. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, June 26

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern AL, GA, SC, central and eastern sections of NC / VA /MD, DE, southeast PA, southern NJ. Low Risk beyond, in northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, June 27

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern sections of the Carolinas and VA, MD, DE, southern PA,and southern NJ. Moderate Risk for FL, southern AL and southern GA. Low Risk in north-central and northeast PA, northern NJ, central and eastern NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 24, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 24 June: First report from MD. New report from NC. CDM has been reported on cucumber in fields in Caroline County, MD and Franklin County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 17,19 June: Updates from NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern / Eastern U.S.

Summertime pattern with a daily chance of showers many areas. The Bermuda High centered off the NC coast extends over the southern and eastern United States. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies most areas. The chance of showers will vary from place to place, but most areas will have isolated or scattered showers. Best chance will be in the Southeast, least chance in the south-central U.S. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, even warmer reading South-central. This pattern will persist through much of this week.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Transport events from most sources move north to northeast each day. Mixed to favorable conditions are expected each day along the East Coast. Greatest favorability is in the mid-Atlantic on Monday, Southeast on Tuesday. Still hot and dry in southern TX. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 24

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in eastern SC, central and eastern NC, eastern VA, and southeast MD. Moderate Risk for GA and southern FL. Low Risk for central MD and DE through NJ and Long Island, plus central and northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 25

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern and eastern GA. Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, central and eastern sections of the Carolinas, southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 21, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 17,19 June: Updates from NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 12 June: First reports from SC. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Charleston County, SC and on cucumber in a home garden in Florence County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Chance of showers (mainly Southeast); mostly dry otherwise. A dissipating front will be the focus for scattered showers Friday from the south Atlantic coast through the central Gulf coast and FL. The Bermuda High will become increasingly prominent after the front washes out. Scattered showers are possible from LA / AR eastward Saturday and Sunday, with the best chances toward the Southeast. Highs from the 80s eastern sections to 100s TX / OK, lows in the 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Southeast. Friday ... transport events move near the FL sources and go southwest from the other sources. Conditions are favorable in parts of FL. Saturday ... events track northwest and north from most sources and there is potential for long-range transport and deposition. Conditions will be most favorable in the mainland Southeast. Cucurbits from the lower mid-Atlantic through the Southeast could be impacted. Sunday ... mixed conditions prevail for the various transport events, most of which curve to the north or perhaps northeast. The areas of potential impact are similar, though conditions are not expected to be quite as favorable as for Saturday's transport events.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 21

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central FL and parts of northern FL. Low Risk for southern FL, northern FL and the FL panhandle, southern SC, southern GA, and parts of southern AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits near and west of the sources in southern GA and eastern SC. Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula. Low Risk for eastern AL and western GA, northern SC, all of NC except the far southwest and near the coast, extreme northeast TN, and all of southside VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, June 23

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL, central and western GA, northeast AL, most of SC, and most of western NC. Low Risk for eastern GA and the Savannah River Valley, central and eastern NC, and most of the southern 1/2 of VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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