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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 12, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 12 August: First report from MA; New Reports from KY, MI, AL, and PA. CDM has been reported in Worcester County, MA; Harrison and Barren Counties, KY; Arenac and Ingham Counties, MI; Cleburne and Clay Counties, AL; and Centre County, PA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 August: New Reports from AL, NJ, and WV. CDM has been reported in Jefferson and Elmore Counties, AL; Morris County, NJ; and Raleigh County, WV. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather continues. The weekend front is stalled from the mid-Atlantic into the central Plains. The next front sweeping down from southern Canada will merge with the existing front tonight and continue to the south and east. Scattered to numerous showers or storms will occur over most of the central and eastern U.S. / southern Canada early this week. High temperatures will generally run in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s, with some cooling northern areas on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in most of the eastern U.S.. Monday's and Tuesday's transport events track near the sources and east to northeast. Conditions will be favorable for most of these events ... from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast on Monday ... and from southern New England through the mid-Atlantic into the Southeast on Tuesday. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are forecast for the East Coast regions on Monday, and in the Great Lakes and lower Southeast on Tuesday. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in AL, central and northern GA, central and eastern sections of TN and KY, far western areas of the Carolinas and VA, southern IN, southern OH, WV, southern MI, southern ON, northern OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Moderate Risk for central MI, Long Island, southern NY, central and eastern PA, NJ, MD, DE, western sections of VA and the Carolinas. Low Risk in southern New England, eastern sections of VA and the Carolinas, southern GA, the FL panhandle, and northern FLMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in AL, northern GA, western SC, eastern TN and KY, southeast OH, WV, NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, and southern sections of VT and NH. Moderate Risk in central KY / southern IN / southwest OH, northwest PA / western NY, the FL panhandle, southern GA, and central and eastern SC. Low Risk for the FL peninsula, central and southern MI, southern ON, northern OH, and western PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 7, 2013
 

*** Forecast Note - 7 August: There will be no forecasts on August 9. Your Forecaster will be attending a conference prior to APS. Forecasts will resume on Monday, August 12.  ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 August: New Reports from AL, NJ, and WV. CDM has been reported in Jefferson and Elmore Counties, AL; Morris County, NJ; and Raleigh County, WV. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New Reports from NY, AL, and PA. CDM has been reported in Ontario County, NY; DeKalb and Tuscaloosa Counties, AL; and Berks and Fulton Counties, PA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Extended period of unsettled weather. A new cold front dropping into the Great Lakes / Plains will move slowly south and east with time. Moderate to heavy rains are expected from the Northeast into the Ohio Valley, and from there westward into the central Plains and southward toward the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered showers will occur many other areas. There will be some pockets of dry weather, as well. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s, but cooler far North and hottest South-central.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely for many areas east of the MS River. Transport events move north or northeast Wednesday and Thursday, except of those out of the Great Lakes on Thursday (they track generally south). Conditions will be favorable for survivable transport and deposition over broad areas of the east-central and eastern United States. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will be dominant in eastern and southern areas of the lower mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Friday through Sunday ... conditions will be most favorable around the cold front that will be sinking slowly south and east through the eastern U.S. ... which for Friday will likely be along an area running from New England / upper mid-Atlantic / Ohio Valley into the central Plains. Saturday and Sunday will see the axis of greater clouds and rain farther south, where the front may stall, in the lower mid-Atlantic / TN Valley / lower Ohio Valley regions. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in most of AL and GA, the southern and central Appalachians, eastern KY, southern OH, lower MI, southern ON, northern OH, most of NY and PA, NJ, DE, and northern MD. Moderate Risk for FL / southwest AL, central sections of the Carolinas and VA, central and western MD, northern WV, southwest PA, central OH, and southern and eastern IN. Low Risk in central TN, south-central KY, eastern sections of the Carolinas and VA, Long island, and western New EnglandMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in New England (except ME), Long Island, the southeast 1/2 of NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, WV, central and southern OH, southern and eastern IN, most of KY and TN, western and southwest VA, the western Carolinas, AL and the MS counties along the AL border. Moderate Risk in Northern OH / northwest PA / western NY, central sections of the Carolinas and VA into southeast MD, southern GA, southeast AL, the FL panhandle, and northern and central FL. Low Risk for southern FL and the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 5, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New Reports from NY, AL, and PA. CDM has been reported in Ontario County, NY; DeKalb and Tuscaloosa Counties, AL; and Berks and Fulton Counties, PA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 August: First Reports from WV and IN; New Reports from PA, VA, AL, NY, and OH. CDM has been reported in Mercer County, WV; Washington County, IN; Montour and Erie Counties, PA; Amelia County, VA; Cullman County, AL; Orleans County, NY; and Ashland and Holmes Counties, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Variable weather with scattered showers. The main weather features include a stalled front over the South, a front in the northern Plains / upper Midwest, and high pressure centered over the upper mid-Atlantic. The High will ease offshore. The fronts meander, not showing significant movement until late Tuesday. The best chance for rain will be in the Great Lakes / Midwest / Ohio Valley and the upper mid-Atlantic (Tuesday). Highs mostly 80s and 90s but only some 60s and 70s North and 100s South-central. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Great Lakes, upper mid-Atlantic, and parts of FL. Most transport events curve to the north or northeast on Monday. The more favorable weather for survivable transport and deposition is occurring in the Great Lakes and the lower Southeast. Tuesday's events track decidedly to the north and northeast at a fairly quick pace, driven by the circulation around the High that will then be offshore. Conditions will be favorable for epidemic spread over broad areas of the Great Lakes and upper mid-Atlantic. Mixed conditions will be dominant over much of the rest of the east-central and eastern U.S.. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in western MI and the southern 1/2 of FL. Moderate Risk for north-central and northern FL, central and eastern MI. Low Risk in AL, GA, the FL panhandle, northwest OH, and extreme southern ONMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, eastern WV, northern and eastern VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, lower MI, northern OH, and southern ON. Moderate Risk in all of FL but the south, AL, GA, the central and western Carolinas / VA, central and eastern TN and KY, most of WV, southern OH, southeast IN, central and western NY. Low Risk for eastern sections of the Carolinas and VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 2, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 August: First Reports from WV and IN; New Reports from PA, VA, AL, NY, and OH. CDM has been reported in Mercer County, WV; Washington County, IN; Montour and Erie Counties, PA; Amelia County, VA; Cullman County, AL; Orleans County, NY; and Ashland and Holmes Counties, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: New Reports from MI and PA. CDM has been reported in Bay and Saginaw Counties, MI; and Lackawanna, Northumberland, Lycoming, and Montour Counties, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Variable and largely unsettled weather this weekend. The mid-week front lies along the East Coast / Southeast and will dissipate with time. Yet another cold front will begin pushing into the Great Lakes / Midwest today. It will reach the Atlantic coast / mid-South on Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers or storms will be focused near the fronts. More isolated activity or dry weather will occur elsewhere. Highs in the 70s and 80s North to 90s and 100s South. Lows from the 50s to the 70s. Cooler behind the front across the northern areas on Sunday.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Great Lakes / upper Ohio Valley / upper mid-Atlantic. Transport events will be driven by the flows ahead of the approaching cold front (east to northeast) and the flows after it passes (southeast to south). Most events on Friday move east to northeast; by Sunday that trend is reversed with the front near the Atlantic coast. Conditions will be most favorable for epidemic spread along and around the main cold front on Friday and Saturday. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, southern MI, southern ON, northern OH, western PA, and western NY. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central MI, and central and northern FL. Low Risk for the coastal plains of GA and the Carolinas, and central and northern NYMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 3

HIGH Risk in the upper Ohio Valley and upper mid-Atlantic regions ... southern and eastern IN, OH, northern WV, northern MD, PA, NJ, northern DE, and western Long Island. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in eastern Long Island, southern New England, all but northern NY, eastern KY, southern WV, southern MD , southern DE, most of northern and eastern VA, eastern sections of the Carolinas, and the FL peninsula. Low Risk for southeast MI / southern ON, southern and extreme southwest VA, eastern TN, the central and western Carolinas, GA, AL, and the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 4

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL, AL, GA, the Carolinas, and southeast VA. Low Risk for eastern sections of TN and KY, southern / central / eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, NJ, Long Island, southern New England, central and eastern PA, and all but northern NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 31, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: New Reports from MI and PA. CDM has been reported in Bay and Saginaw Counties, MI; and Lackawanna, Northumberland, Lycoming, and Montour Counties, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: New Reports from KY, VA, MI, and DE. CDM has been reported in Newago County, MI; Pike County, KY; Newcastle County, DE; and Powhatan and Montgomery Counties, VA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather East; mostly dry Central. There is a stationary front over the South and another front moving into the Midwest later today. The stationary front will edge north and east while the next front approaches it as it swings to the south and east. The upshot will be considerable cloudiness with rain / showers / storms for the east-central and eastern U.S. over the next 2 days. A few showers are expected in the Plains / Midwest in association with this next front, but most areas in that region will be dry. Highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s, with a few cooler / warmer readings far North and southern Plains.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Great Lakes and East Coast. Conditions will be favorable for epidemic spread from the Great Lakes southward to the eastern Gulf Coast for both Wednesday's and Thursday's transport events. Almost all of Wednesday's events track near the source or north to northeast. Thursday's events show more variation; the Great Lakes' events move southeast, while most others move near the source or northeast. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 31

HIGH Risk for the East Coast states from AL / GA through MD / DE, plus the FL panhandle / northern FL, eastern sections of TN and KY, southern and eastern WV, central PA ... also northern OH, northwest PA, western NY, southern ON, and nearly all of lower MI. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, NJ, eastern PA, central and eastern NY, east-central and northern KY into southern OH and southeast INMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 1

HIGH Risk all along the East Coast from northern FL / FL panhandle / southern AL /GA northeastward through central and eastern NY, Long Island, and all of  New England except ME. Moderate Risk for cucurbits to the west of that extended region, from the Lower Lakes (eastern MI / southern ON / western NY / western PA / northern OH) down through eastern and southern OH, WV, eastern sections of KY and TN, extreme southwest parts of VA and NC, northern GA, central AL, plus southern FL. Low Risk for western MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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