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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 19, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 19 August: New Reports from PA, WV, MA, and NY. CDM has been reported in Washington and Crawford Counties, PA; Pendleton and Monongalia Counties, WV; Franklin County, MA; and Tompkins County, NY. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: First report from RI; New Reports from MI, IN, AL, and KY. CDM has been reported in Washington County, RI; Kent County, MI; Wayne County, IN; Limestone and Blount Counties, AL; and Bell County, KY. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley southward to the Gulf Coast; mostly dry elsewhere. The stationary front that lies along the coastal sections of the Southeast and eastern Gulf will remain in place early this week. Expect showers / areas of rain under cloudy skies in the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. Isolated to scattered shower activity will occur on the western and northern edges of that region. Dry weather should prevail otherwise. Highs in the 70s to 80s East to 90s Plains. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast / mid-Atlantic / southern Ohio Valley. Transport events tend to move slowly on both Monday and Tuesday, near the sources and to the southwest (Monday) or west / northwest (Tuesday). Conditions will be favorable many areas and mixed for some others, with only the northern U.S. / southern Canada experiencing unfavorable weather for the next couple of days. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 19

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, AL, GA, the Carolinas, VA, DE, MD, south-central and eastern TN, southeast KY, southern and eastern WV, central and eastern PA, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, central TN, central and eastern KY, northeast PA, and northern NJ. Low Risk in western PA, eastern OH, and western and northern WVMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 20

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, far eastern MS, AL, GA, the Carolinas, south-central and eastern TN, southwest and extreme southwest VA. Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, parts of central and eastern VA, and southern WV. Low Risk in KY, north-central TN, parts of central and eastern VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 16, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: First report from RI; New Reports from MI, IN, AL, and KY. CDM has been reported in Washington County, RI; Kent County, MI; Wayne County, IN; Limestone and Blount Counties, AL; and Bell County, KY. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: First report from WI; New Reports from KY, SC, CT, and VA. CDM has been reported in Jefferson County, WI; Lincoln County, KY; Spartanburg and Greenville Counties, SC; Windsor County, CT; and Virginia Beach, Rockingham, Brunswick, Northampton, and Henrico Counties, VA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Wet weather from the Southeast into the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley; mostly dry elsewhere. A stationary front strung out from the eastern Carolinas to the Gulf Coast will promote rainy weather in the Southeast on Friday. The chance of rain will spread farther north on Saturday and Sunday as moisture increases and waves of low pressure move along the front. There may be a few showers in the southern or central Plains but otherwise mostly dry weather is expected elsewhere. Still quite cool for mid to late August. Highs in the 70s and 80s with some 90s South and Plains and some 60s in the damming region east of the Appalachians. Lows mostly 50s and 60s. Expect a slow warming trend during the period. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Favorable conditions in GA / Carolinas expanding north and west Saturday and Sunday. The northern growing regions will be dry for the next several days ... but another period of unsettled weather is forecast for central and southern areas. Transport events move near the sources or to the west / southwest on Friday. Saturday's and Sunday's events show more variation. They track near the source, some to the west, and most curving north to northeast. Epidemic spread is most likely in the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic, where favorable conditions will occur on all days. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, GA, SC, most of NC, and southeast VA Moderate Risk for central and southern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL, western NC / eastern TN, most of southern and central VA, and southern WV. Low Risk in central and northern AL, northeast MS, most of TN, and southern KYMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 17

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, most of AL, GA, SC, NC, almost all of VA, and southern MD. Moderate Risk for KY, TN, northern AL, MS, southeast LA, southern WV, central and southern FL, northern VA, MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, AL, VA, KY, TN, the Carolinas, VA, MD, DE, southern and central WV, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk in southern IN, northern KY, southern OH, northern WV, southern PA, central NJ, and the FL peninsula. Low Risk for central PA and northern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 14, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: First report from WI; New Reports from KY, SC, CT, and VA. CDM has been reported in Jefferson County, WI; Lincoln County, KY; Spartanburg and Greenville Counties, SC; Windsor County, CT; and Virginia Beach, Rockingham, Brunswick, Northampton, and Henrico Counties, VA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 12 August: First report from MA; New Reports from KY, MI, AL, and PA. CDM has been reported in Worcester County, MA; Harrison and Barren Counties, KY; Arenac and Ingham Counties, MI; Cleburne and Clay Counties, AL; and Centre County, PA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled South and Plains; mostly dry elsewhere. The cold front has pushed far to the south, and now lies from coastal NC through the Gulf Coast to the southern high Plains. High pressure over the Midwest will spill eastward while the front sinks even farther south over the next 2 days. Unsettled weather will focus around the front. Most locations, however, will be dry. Quite cool for mid-August during mid to late week. Highs in the 60s and 70s North to 80s and 90s South. Lows 40s and 50s North, 60s and 70s South. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Transport events track south to southwest on Wednesday, near-source or south to southwest on Thursday. Conditions will be favorable in the Southeast for epidemic spread, decreasing markedly outside this region. For one of the few times this summer, most transport events will encounter unfavorable conditions. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern MS, the western panhandle, and most of AL / GA / SC. Low to Moderate Risk along the northern fringe of this region, across northern sections of AL / GA / SC and southern NC. Moderate Risk over the FL peninsula. Low Risk in western NYMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, AL, GA, SC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk along the FL peninsula. Low Risk in southeast TN, and southwest and south-central NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 12, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 12 August: First report from MA; New Reports from KY, MI, AL, and PA. CDM has been reported in Worcester County, MA; Harrison and Barren Counties, KY; Arenac and Ingham Counties, MI; Cleburne and Clay Counties, AL; and Centre County, PA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 August: New Reports from AL, NJ, and WV. CDM has been reported in Jefferson and Elmore Counties, AL; Morris County, NJ; and Raleigh County, WV. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather continues. The weekend front is stalled from the mid-Atlantic into the central Plains. The next front sweeping down from southern Canada will merge with the existing front tonight and continue to the south and east. Scattered to numerous showers or storms will occur over most of the central and eastern U.S. / southern Canada early this week. High temperatures will generally run in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s, with some cooling northern areas on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in most of the eastern U.S.. Monday's and Tuesday's transport events track near the sources and east to northeast. Conditions will be favorable for most of these events ... from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast on Monday ... and from southern New England through the mid-Atlantic into the Southeast on Tuesday. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are forecast for the East Coast regions on Monday, and in the Great Lakes and lower Southeast on Tuesday. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in AL, central and northern GA, central and eastern sections of TN and KY, far western areas of the Carolinas and VA, southern IN, southern OH, WV, southern MI, southern ON, northern OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Moderate Risk for central MI, Long Island, southern NY, central and eastern PA, NJ, MD, DE, western sections of VA and the Carolinas. Low Risk in southern New England, eastern sections of VA and the Carolinas, southern GA, the FL panhandle, and northern FLMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in AL, northern GA, western SC, eastern TN and KY, southeast OH, WV, NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, and southern sections of VT and NH. Moderate Risk in central KY / southern IN / southwest OH, northwest PA / western NY, the FL panhandle, southern GA, and central and eastern SC. Low Risk for the FL peninsula, central and southern MI, southern ON, northern OH, and western PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 7, 2013
 

*** Forecast Note - 7 August: There will be no forecasts on August 9. Your Forecaster will be attending a conference prior to APS. Forecasts will resume on Monday, August 12.  ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 August: New Reports from AL, NJ, and WV. CDM has been reported in Jefferson and Elmore Counties, AL; Morris County, NJ; and Raleigh County, WV. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New Reports from NY, AL, and PA. CDM has been reported in Ontario County, NY; DeKalb and Tuscaloosa Counties, AL; and Berks and Fulton Counties, PA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Extended period of unsettled weather. A new cold front dropping into the Great Lakes / Plains will move slowly south and east with time. Moderate to heavy rains are expected from the Northeast into the Ohio Valley, and from there westward into the central Plains and southward toward the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered showers will occur many other areas. There will be some pockets of dry weather, as well. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s, but cooler far North and hottest South-central.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely for many areas east of the MS River. Transport events move north or northeast Wednesday and Thursday, except of those out of the Great Lakes on Thursday (they track generally south). Conditions will be favorable for survivable transport and deposition over broad areas of the east-central and eastern United States. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will be dominant in eastern and southern areas of the lower mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Friday through Sunday ... conditions will be most favorable around the cold front that will be sinking slowly south and east through the eastern U.S. ... which for Friday will likely be along an area running from New England / upper mid-Atlantic / Ohio Valley into the central Plains. Saturday and Sunday will see the axis of greater clouds and rain farther south, where the front may stall, in the lower mid-Atlantic / TN Valley / lower Ohio Valley regions. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in most of AL and GA, the southern and central Appalachians, eastern KY, southern OH, lower MI, southern ON, northern OH, most of NY and PA, NJ, DE, and northern MD. Moderate Risk for FL / southwest AL, central sections of the Carolinas and VA, central and western MD, northern WV, southwest PA, central OH, and southern and eastern IN. Low Risk in central TN, south-central KY, eastern sections of the Carolinas and VA, Long island, and western New EnglandMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in New England (except ME), Long Island, the southeast 1/2 of NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, WV, central and southern OH, southern and eastern IN, most of KY and TN, western and southwest VA, the western Carolinas, AL and the MS counties along the AL border. Moderate Risk in Northern OH / northwest PA / western NY, central sections of the Carolinas and VA into southeast MD, southern GA, southeast AL, the FL panhandle, and northern and central FL. Low Risk for southern FL and the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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