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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 3, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1 May: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 1-29 April: No new reports or updates. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Unsettled Friday and Saturday; some improvement by Sunday. Main weather features are a surface trough over  FL / Bahamas and a cold front currently over the lower MS Valley. Active weather will occur Friday and Saturday as the front approaches from the west and the FL / Bahamas feature drifts east. The FL peninsula may see some drier weather on Sunday. Highs in the 70s and 80s; lows in the 50s and 60s with some 40s mainland.


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible for southern / central FL. Transport events out of southern FL are moving generally east each day, due to the presence and position of the surface trough nearby. Mixed conditions are expected today. Conditions will become increasingly unfavorable the following days. The more active weather should remain to the north.      

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 3

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern and east-central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 4

Low Risk for southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 5

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 1, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1 May: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 1-29 April: No new reports or updates. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Active weather. High pressure centered over the northeast U.S. continues to pump moisture into the region. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with scattered to numerous showers or storms. Heaviest rain will fall over the central and southern peninsula, aided by upper-level energy drifting through the northern Gulf. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s and 60s.    


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely. Mid-week wind flows and conditions remain quite similar to those of Monday and Tuesday; events track to the WNW / northwest and conditions are favorable for epidemic spread. Transport of live spores toward the FL panhandle / central Gulf is not out of the question. However, the known sources are small or weak, and the bulk of any airborne spores should be washed out over the southern peninsula or nearby areas of the eastern Gulf.      

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 1

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the southern half of FLMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in south-central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, April 29, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1-29 April: No new reports or updates. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 March: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Active weather expected for the entire work week. Moist flow off the Atlantic and Gulf combines with sometimes ill-defined surface features early this week. They produce partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered to numerous showers and storms for the region. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s and 60s. Unsettled weather will continue for the foreseeable future.    


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely. Transport events move northwest and west today, slowly north and then west for Tuesday's events. Conditions will be favorable for survivable transport and deposition each day. Epidemic spread northward along the peninsula appears likely.     

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, April 29

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern and west-central FL. Low Risk for the rest of central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, April 30

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the southern half of FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, April 26, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1-26 April: No new reports or updates. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 March: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Tranquil weather Friday transitioning to an extended period of unsettled weather. High pressure over the eastern U.S. today provides fair weather. A system now developing in the southern Plains will have increasing impact over the weekend as it moves into the mid-South and later the Southeast. Chance of showers present for many areas Saturday. Greater shower activity is expected for Sunday, especially for the mainland. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s and 60s.    


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. The known sources in southern FL are far enough away from the influence of the approaching frontal system such that the transport events are not likely to produce any epidemic spread ... for now. Transport events move west Friday and Saturday under sunny skies. Sunday's events begin to indicate a shift in the winds; events track to the northwest and north. However, sky conditions are still expected to be mostly sunny. Chance of rain during the first day of travel (on Sunday) creeps up to 20%, which will be enough to raise the risk out of the minimal level for some locations near the sources. Greater risk to cucurbits (both near and north of the sources) is expected early next week.     

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, April 26

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, April 27

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, April 28

Low Risk for cucurbits in portions of southwest and west-central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, April 24, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1-24 April: No new reports or updates. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 March: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Mostly dry; a few showers possible toward the mainland. A cold front, west of the Southeast this morning, will move into the region tonight and Thursday. It will stall somewhere over northern FL / northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night. This front is not as vigorous as previous ones. Only a few isolated to scattered showers are expected (for now). Highs in the 80s with some 70s mainland. Lows in the 50s and 60s with some 40s mainland Thursday night. Active weather with possibly heavy rain will arrive over the weekend.      


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Trajectories move southwest and west into the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday. Sky conditions and rain chances / amounts are unfavorable for epidemic spread.     

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, April 24

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, April 25

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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