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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 16, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 13, 16 September: No New Reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 11 September: Updates from a few areas. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Mostly dry with showers East, South, and Midwest. Cold front will exit the East Coast this afternoon. It enters the South and turns stationary with the western portion extending northwestward into the Plains. A reinforcing shot of cooler air fills in behind the front. Showers will be light most areas; greater amounts will fall in parts of FL and the Midwest. A wide range of temperatures is expected. Highs from the 60s North to 90s South. Lows in the 30s and 40s North to 60s South. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in southern FL, possible in the East or South. Conditions for epidemic spread are slightly favorable to mixed for many transport events on Monday, and in the South on Tuesday. A greater chance of rain in southern FL will further elevate the risk to cucurbits there through midweek.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Moderate Risk for the rest of FL, southeast AL, southern GA, the coastal plains of the Carolinas, eastern MD, DE, NJ, southern ON, northern and eastern PA, Long Island, central and southern NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH. Low Risk for most of KY and TN, the western and central Carolinas, VA, WV, central and western MD, southern and western PA, and eastern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 17

HIGH Risk for southern FL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL, southern GA, and southern SC. Low Risk in southern LA, southern and eastern MS, AL, the FL panhandle, central and northern GA, most of SC, southwest NC, and southeast TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 13, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 September: No New Reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 11 September: Updates from a few areas. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Becoming drier and cooler. The midweek cold front is exiting the East Coast and moving into the deep South. High pressure spilling in behind will usher in sunny to partly cloudy skies and cool, Fall-like temperatures over most of the central and eastern United States ... after some showers occur in the northern areas (upper-level energy) and in the South / East Coast (along/ahead of the front). Yet another front will move out of southern Canada on Sunday; isolated to scattered showers will occur across mostly the northern areas Sunday / Sunday night.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the North (Friday and Sunday), and in the deep South (each day). Conditions will be most favorable for survivable transport and deposition in the Lower Lakes / Northeast on Friday. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are forecast for events elsewhere on Friday. Saturday will be the sunniest / driest day, with risk suppressed to the far South. Low to Moderate Risk re-enters the northern areas on Sunday, ahead of the next cold front.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern WV, northeast OH, most of PA, and western NY. Low to Moderate Risk in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic into New England, and near the lower Lakes. Moderate Risk will be most prevalent near the the Gulf Coast and FL, southern New England / southeast NY, and southern ON / eastern MI / north-central OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 14

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southern FL, southern WI, far northern IN, and central and southern MI. Low Risk in northern FL / FL peninsula, and southern sections of GA / AL / MS / LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 15

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southern FL, southern WI, far northern IN, central and southern MI. Low Risk for the eastern Gulf Coast, most of IN, OH, southeast MI, southern ON, PA, NJ, and most of NY and VT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 11, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11 September: Updates from a few areasPlease see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New Report from SC. CDM has been reported in Charleston County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather. Cold front now stretching from southern Canada into the Plains will press to the south and east over the next several days, urged along by cool Canadian high pressure. This front features more rain and showers than some other recent ones. Greater amounts will fall toward the northern areas. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. Cooling temperatures late Thursday and Thursday night in the North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely from the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes into the Northeast. Most of Wednesday's transport events head to the east or northeast ahead of the cold front. Thursday's events move east / northeast from the sources east of the mountains. From the sources west of the mountains, events track to the southeast. Conditions will be most favorable along and ahead of the front ... Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Wednesday, Ohio Valley / lower Lakes / Northeast on Thursday, and parts of FL each day. Areas of lesser risk to cucurbits will be found near the borders of the High Risk regions.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, central and eastern TN, central and eastern KY, western NC, western VA, WV, OH, most of PA, central and western NY, southern ON, southern MI, and northeast IN. Moderate Risk for southeast WI, central MI, southern IN, western KY, southern TN, northern AL and GA, the foothills of SC / NC / VA, most of FL, southern GA, and southern TX. Low Risk in DE, southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, eastern and northern NY, all of New England but central and eastern ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, western NC, the eastern half of TN, central and eastern KY, OH, WV, western and northern VA, MD, DE, NJ, PA, Long Island, NY, and New England except northern and central ME. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in most of SC and NC, southeast VA, west-central TN, western KY, deep south TX, and southern IN. Low Risk for northern AL and GA, southern GA, northern FL and the FL panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 9, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New Report from SC. CDM has been reported in Charleston County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 September: New Reports from MD, MA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Montgomery County, MD; Essex County, MA; and Clinton County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Mostly dry; isolated to scattered showers varying areas. High pressure settling off the mid-Atlantic coast bring fairly tranquil weather to most regions early this week. Moist flows off the Atlantic and Gulf will cause some showers in parts of FL and TX. Some showers will fall near a frontal system in the Great Lakes / southern Canada / Northeast. Showers are possible in a few other areas each day, but coverage and amounts will be limited. Highs in the 70s Northeast to low 100s Plains / Midwest. Lows mostly 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in some areas each day. Most transport events curve to the north and northeast today, northeast and east on Tuesday. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition vary widely from day to day and region to region, though unfavorable to slightly favorable conditions will be dominant. The greatest favorability will be found on Monday near the Great Lakes.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in much of lower MI. Moderate Risk in southern FL, western TN / southwest KY, northern WV, western PA, central and northern OH, southern ON, southeast MI, and deep south TX. Low Risk in all of FL except the South, GA, AL, central and eastern TN, all of NC except the central sections, southeast and southwest VA, southeast KY, southern and central WV, western and central NY, southwest MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 10

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern FL, deep south TX, and the mountain counties of eastern WV, western and southwest VA, and western NC. Low Risk for southeast WI and most of lower MI, VT / NH / MA / CT, FL (all but the southern sections), southern LA, eastern MS, AL, southern and western GA, TN, KY, western WV, southern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 6, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 September: New Reports from MD, MA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Montgomery County, MD; Essex County, MA; and Clinton County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 4 September: New Reports from KY, SC, and MI. CDM has been reported in Allen County, KY; Beaufort and Colleton Counties, SC; and Van Buren County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Dry weather most locations; showers moving in from the north over the weekend. The mid-week cold front is dissipating over the South. Another cold front will enter northern areas Saturday continue farther south on Sunday. Some showers are expected along the immediate Gulf Coast. Scattered showers will accompany the cold front Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, no rain is expected under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Wide range of temperatures, with 60s and 70s for highs in northern areas ranging to 90s and 100s South and Plains. Lows mostly from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Deep South and along / ahead of the cold front. Transport events move in a variety of directions over the next 3 days governed by the position of the dominant high pressure (Ohio Valley / Appalachians, shifting east). Most events of note, associated with the cold front, will be moving east to northeast. Conditions during the transport events in the North (Saturday) and North and Central (Sunday) will be slightly favorable to mixed in most cases, though some High Risk is evident in the Great Lakes on Saturday.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 6

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL and deep South TX. Low Risk in northern FL and the panhandle, and southern sections of GA / AL / MS / LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 7

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in eastern MI and southern ON. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast WI, central and southern MI, the FL peninsula, and deep south TX. Low Risk in the FL panhandle, southern sections of LA / MS / AL/ GA, the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians, northern OH, northwest PA, and most of NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 8

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in WV, eastern OH, western and northern PA, most of NY, southern VT and NH, southern New England, deep south TX, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for southern and eastern SC / southeast NC, the western Carolinas and western VA, northern and eastern TN, KY, southeast IL, most of IN, western and central OH, northern areas of VA and MD, southeast PA, central and northern NJ, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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