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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 23, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 20, 23 September: No New Reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 September: First reports from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Douglas and McHenry Counties, IL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled South / Ohio Valley; dry elsewhere. High pressure fills most of the central and eastern United States. A stationary front near the Gulf Coast and a weak system moving through the southern Plains will combine to produce showers from the deep South (both days) into the Ohio Valley (Tuesday). Otherwise, dry weather will prevail. Highs from the 50s Northeast to 80s South. Lows from the 30s North to 60s South.  

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South / southern Ohio Valley. The region of interest early this week is the South. Transport events from that region trend near the sources or to the west / northwest. Conditions will be favorable near the Gulf Coast on Monday. Favorable conditions will expand northward into the mid-South on Tuesday. Areas of Low to Moderate risk to cucurbits will be found on the edges of these high-favorability events. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 23

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, extreme southern MS, and southern LA. Low to Moderate Risk in southern sections of GA and AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 24

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in FL, southwest GA, southern LA, southern and eastern MS, AL, western and central TN, and southwest KY. Moderate Risk for western and southern KY, eastern TN, far southwest NC, and most of GA. Low Risk in southern and western SC, western NC, southwest VA, central KY, and southwest IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 20, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 20 September: No New Reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 September: First reports from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Douglas and McHenry Counties, IL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather period; drier on Sunday. Cold front stretching from the upper Great Lakes to north TX will move east over the weekend, clearing most of the East Coast on Sunday but lingering over the South. Significant rain and showers will accompany the front, falling mostly west of the mountains on Friday ... from the Northeast to the Gulf Coast on Saturday ... and in New England and the Southeast on Sunday. Highs mostly 60s to 80s, lows mostly 40s to 60s with some 30s far North.  

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely. Transport events move north to northeast ahead of the front, south to southeast behind it. Conditions favorable for survivable transport and deposition of airborne spores will be widespread over the east-central and eastern United States Friday and Saturday. Favorable conditions will be limited to portions of the South plus the New England states by Sunday, as drier and more sunny weather follows the cold front.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 20

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern LA and southwest MS, central and southeastern NC, southwest VA, most of WV, most of OH, western PA, southern ON, MI, IN, eastern IL, and western and central sections of KY and TN. Low to Moderate Risk to the east and south of these High risk areas ... including western sections of PA / NY / MD, most of VA, northeast NC, southern OH, eastern KY and TN, the western Carolinas, northern GA, AL, and the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 21

HIGH Risk for a broad swath of the eastern U.S. ... eastern LA and MS through AL, TN, northern GA, the western Carolinas, central and eastern KY, the Virginias, MD, DE, NJ, PA, NY, and most of New England. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the coastal plains of the Carolinas and GA, southern ON, central OH, and northern KY. Low Risk in the FL peninsula, northern VT and NH, and eastern ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 22

HIGH Risk for southern LA through northern FL / southern GA into coastal SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NY, central VT and NH, eastern ME, south-central AL and GA into the eastern Carolinas. Low Risk in north-central AL and GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 18, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 September: First reports from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Douglas and McHenry Counties, IL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 13, 16 September: No New Reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Mostly dry East Coast and mainland South; chance of showers elsewhere. High pressure over the eastern Seaboard will begin shifting east on Thursday, as a frontal system in the Rockies becomes better defined and moves into the central United States. Showers will fall near the Gulf. Scattered showers will occur in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes and central U.S.. Shower activity will become better organized and increase in the central U.S. on Thursday. Highs mostly 70s and 80s, lows in the 40s and 50s East to 60s and 70s Central.  

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of FL, KY, and the western Lakes, possible in the Ohio Valley and toward the Gulf. Transport events curve west, northwest, and north on Wednesday, and mostly north to northeast on Thursday. Conditions will be unfavorable along the East coast, and mixed in most cases near the Gulf and from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, with some pockets of more favorable weather.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, KY, southern WV, southern IN, northern IN, western MI, and eastern WI. Moderate Risk for the Gulf Coast from LA to FL, the southern Appalachian Mountains, south-central IN, southern OH, western WV, and central MI. Low Risk for western and central TN, eastern IN, northern OH, eastern MI, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 19

HIGH Risk for southern FL and eastern WI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southern MI, southern ON, OH, IN, eastern IL, WV, KY, the rest of FL and the Gulf Coast through southern LA. Low Risk in TN, western NC, southwest VA, and western PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 16, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 13, 16 September: No New Reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 11 September: Updates from a few areas. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Mostly dry with showers East, South, and Midwest. Cold front will exit the East Coast this afternoon. It enters the South and turns stationary with the western portion extending northwestward into the Plains. A reinforcing shot of cooler air fills in behind the front. Showers will be light most areas; greater amounts will fall in parts of FL and the Midwest. A wide range of temperatures is expected. Highs from the 60s North to 90s South. Lows in the 30s and 40s North to 60s South. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in southern FL, possible in the East or South. Conditions for epidemic spread are slightly favorable to mixed for many transport events on Monday, and in the South on Tuesday. A greater chance of rain in southern FL will further elevate the risk to cucurbits there through midweek.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Moderate Risk for the rest of FL, southeast AL, southern GA, the coastal plains of the Carolinas, eastern MD, DE, NJ, southern ON, northern and eastern PA, Long Island, central and southern NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH. Low Risk for most of KY and TN, the western and central Carolinas, VA, WV, central and western MD, southern and western PA, and eastern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 17

HIGH Risk for southern FL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL, southern GA, and southern SC. Low Risk in southern LA, southern and eastern MS, AL, the FL panhandle, central and northern GA, most of SC, southwest NC, and southeast TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 13, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 September: No New Reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 11 September: Updates from a few areas. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Becoming drier and cooler. The midweek cold front is exiting the East Coast and moving into the deep South. High pressure spilling in behind will usher in sunny to partly cloudy skies and cool, Fall-like temperatures over most of the central and eastern United States ... after some showers occur in the northern areas (upper-level energy) and in the South / East Coast (along/ahead of the front). Yet another front will move out of southern Canada on Sunday; isolated to scattered showers will occur across mostly the northern areas Sunday / Sunday night.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the North (Friday and Sunday), and in the deep South (each day). Conditions will be most favorable for survivable transport and deposition in the Lower Lakes / Northeast on Friday. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are forecast for events elsewhere on Friday. Saturday will be the sunniest / driest day, with risk suppressed to the far South. Low to Moderate Risk re-enters the northern areas on Sunday, ahead of the next cold front.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern WV, northeast OH, most of PA, and western NY. Low to Moderate Risk in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic into New England, and near the lower Lakes. Moderate Risk will be most prevalent near the the Gulf Coast and FL, southern New England / southeast NY, and southern ON / eastern MI / north-central OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 14

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southern FL, southern WI, far northern IN, and central and southern MI. Low Risk in northern FL / FL peninsula, and southern sections of GA / AL / MS / LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 15

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southern FL, southern WI, far northern IN, central and southern MI. Low Risk for the eastern Gulf Coast, most of IN, OH, southeast MI, southern ON, PA, NJ, and most of NY and VT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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