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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 6, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Yazoo County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dramatic transition from dry to wet. Rain around a front in the Plains / North, scattered showers in the far South, and dry weather elsewhere make Friday like previous days. Significant changes with widespread clouds and rain arrive this weekend. Moisture rapidly increases; the front moves into the east-central U.S.; and, Tropical Storm Nate, which moves into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, becomes a hurricane and makes landfall on the central Gulf Coast and heads northeast. Warm with highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South and possible elsewhere. The massive influx of favorable conditions from the south and west fuels a greatly increased chance of epidemic spread compared to recent times. Host availability and the antecedent dry conditions over most of the growing regions will initially temper risks on Saturday; risks will increase on Sunday. The higher risks will occur in the southern areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in northern FL, southern GA, northern IN, central and southern MI, northern OH, northern PA, western and central NY, MA, and southern VT and NH. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest GA, the eastern FL panhandle, and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk for southern and western SC, GA, the FL panhandle, AL, MS, western and central TN, western KY, IN, MI except the UP, southern ON, northwest OH. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NY, northwest PA, most of OH, northern KY, northern SC, and western and central NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, MS, AL, GA, SC, and western and central TN. Moderate Risk for western and central NC, the western half of VA, WV, northeast TN, KY, central and southern OH and IN. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast OH, PA, NY, southern QC, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, MD, DE, the eastern half of VA, and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 4, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 4 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Yazoo County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 2 October: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather; chance of rain mainly Plains and North. The persistent dry weather pattern remains in place for a few more days. High pressure sprawls over eastern North America. A cold front in the Midwest will move into the northern areas as its tail end stalls in the central Plains. Scattered showers will occur along the front and in parts of TX and FL.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in portions of the North and FL. Most transport events move southwest or northeast on Wednesday, and near-source or east on Thursday. Most events are benign. Showers in FL give rise to elevated risk there. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will occur near the southern and eastern Great Lakes. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 4

Moderate Risk in deep south TX, central and southern FL, northern IN, northern OH, southern MI, and southern ON. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, central MI, southern IN, central OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk for northern FL, northern IN, southwest and central MI. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern IN, OH, southeast MI, southern ON, northern WV, western NY, and western PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 2, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 October: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 25 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather with a chance of showers far South. High pressure anchored over southern Canada / eastern U.S. governs the weather, which is dry early this week under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Onshore flow in the lower Southeast and the western Gulf Coast and the presence of a dying stationary front will cause showers in those areas. Highs mostly 70s and 80s, lows mostly 40s and 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition dominate the situation. Only a few transport events in the lower Southeast and Gulf Coast regions produce any meaningful chance of epidemic spread. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 2

Moderate Risk in central FL, southwest MS, and northeast LA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast FL, southeast GA, southern SC, central and western AL, MS except the southwest, and near the TX sources. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 3

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, and east-central and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in far northeast FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 29, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Rockingham County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry most regions; unsettled parts of the northern and southern areas. Dry weather and cool temperatures will be the hallmarks over the next 3 days. A stalled front in the South will help trigger showers, mostly in the lower Southeast and TX. A secondary front swinging through the northern sections today and tonight will generate some rain, also. Much cooler with highs in the 60s and 80s, lows in the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible Friday, unlikely Saturday and Sunday. Transport events tend to move near the sources in most cases. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will be found in many events on Friday, mainly in portions of the South and North. Any epidemic spread on Saturday and Sunday should be restricted to a few locations in the far South. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 29

Moderate Risk in deep south TX, the FL peninsula, southeast GA, southern SC, northeast OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central AL, southwest GA, the NC mountains, northeast SC, eastern NC, north-central PA, northwest OH, far southern ON, central and southern MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 30

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, MA, and southern VT and NH. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern GA and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 1

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 27, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Rockingham County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Continued dry; chance of showers a few areas. One long cold front trudges eastward from its current position in the Great Lakes southwestward to TX. Little rain is expected with the front. The exceptions include rainy weather in TX / OK, some showers in FL, and a chance of rain in portions of the North. Mild coastal impacts from HR Maria diminish further. Large temperature contrasts are coming, with highs/lows in the 80s-90s / 60s-70s ahead of the front, 60s-80s / 40s to 60s behind.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. The favorable conditions in the Plains states should have little impact on the early-week transport events. Most events are benign. Some epidemic spread is possible in parts of the South, and along the mid-Atlantic coast (mainly on Tuesday). 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 27

Moderate Risk in southern FL and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern MI, southern ON, OH, northwest PA, western NY, far eastern NC, southeast VA, eastern MA, RI, eastern CT, and east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 28

Moderate Risk for deep south TX and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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