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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 18, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather. High pressure centered over the eastern U.S. is the dominant weather feature. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy with little to no chance of rain. Onshore flow may promote some showers in parts of FL and TX. Highs in the 60s to 80s, lows in the 40s to 60s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Almost all transport events involve unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Some localized to short-range spread is possible near the FL sources and in southern TX. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 18

Moderate Risk in central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 19

Moderate Risk for southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in central FL and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 16, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Transition to an extended dry period. Cold front reaching from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico passes through eastern and southern North America Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers will occur in the eastern states on Monday and the far Southeast on Tuesday. All other regions will see sunny, dry weather as high pressure re-establishes itself. Wide range of temperatures is expected with highs from the 50s to 80s, and lows from the 30s to 50s with some 60s and 70s far South.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible, but chances decreasing. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions surround the transport events of interest, those events being the ones coming out of the Southeast and coastal mid-Atlantic. Risks are being held down by cool to cold temperatures that are occurring outside of the South. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 16

Moderate Risk on the FL peninsula, in southern GA, and southern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, eastern SC and NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 17

Moderate Risk for central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 13, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Drier weather with showers some areas. High pressure wedges into eastern North America, sandwiched between a dying front in the Southeast and another cold front in the Great Lakes / central U.S.. The weather will be largely dry, with showers possible in various portions of (mainly) the East and North. The chance of showers increases on Sunday for many locations as the cold front in the central U.S. moves eastward. Highs mostly 60s to 80s, low mostly 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible. The scenarios for transport and deposition of airborne spores change from region to region and day to day within regions. Risks vary from mininal to moderate, concentrated near the known sources. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 13

Moderate Risk in central and southern FL, southeast GA, eastern NC, far eastern VA and MD, DE, and southern NJ. Low Risk for cucurbits in western MA, CT, Long Island, southeast NY, northern NJ, eastern PA, central MD, VA, central and western NC, northern SC, southwest GA, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and after deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 14

Moderate Risk for eastern NC and VA, eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south TX, central MO, northern IN, central and southern MI, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 15

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and southern MI, IN, OH, southern ON, KY except the south-central, NY, PA, MD, DE, NJ, southern QC, New England except ME, MS, AL, GA, the FL panhandle, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 11, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Yazoo County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mainly unsettled weather. A low pressure / frontal system makes its way through east-central and eastern North America this period. Most of the rain or showers will fall in the coastal states and moreso Wednesday than Thursday. Wide range of temperatures with highs from the 50s to 80s, lows from the 40s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic, possible elsewhere. Conditions for many transport events will be mixed to favorable, which could lead to additional epidemic spread in some areas as the growing season draws nearer to a close. Transport events are moving near the sources and northeast on Wednesday, near-source and northwest on Thursday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA, eastern SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and NJ. Moderate Risk in the FL panhandle, southern AL, southwest GA, northwest NC, southwest and west-central VA, western MD, western WV, eastern KY, OH, central and southern MI, southern ON, and western and central PA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, central and western SC, central and western NC, western and southern NY, far northern PA, CT, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, central and southern MD, southern DE. Moderate Risk for NJ, southeast PA, northern MD, eastern WV, western VA, central and western NC, central and western SC, eastern GA, southern FL, and near the deep south TX source. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, southwest GA, northern WV, eastern OH, western NY, and western and central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 9, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Yazoo County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled, summer-like weather. An unseasonably warm, humid, and wet weather scenario unfolds early this week. Tropical Depression Nate moved rapidly through the mid-South and Ohio Valley yesterday. He continues on this pace today through the Northeast accompanied by clouds and rain. Meanwhile, a front in the central U.S. pushes east. Showers will occur in the soupy air mass over eastern North America behind Nate and ahead of the front. Quite warm with highs well into the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South and lower mid-Atlantic. Transport events are tracking near-source and north or northeast. The summer-like, almost tropical weather is providing favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Any dormant infections are experiencing a late-season revitalization and any active ones should remain active.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, MS, AL, GA, the Carolinas, VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Moderate Risk in central and southern FL, eastern KY, WV, eastern OH, PA, far northern VA, northern MD and DE, NJ, NY, and all the New England states except for central and eastern ME. Low Risk for cucurbits in western TN and western KY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southern MS, AL, GA, central TN, SC, NC, and southern VA. Moderate Risk for southern FL, KY, southern IN, and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern DE, far southern MD, eastern VA, and central and northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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