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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 8, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Dry most areas. High pressure situated in the South maintains peaceful weather early this week, under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Fronts lying over the outskirts of the region to the north and west will generate some rain in TN/NC and TX, respectively, on Tuesday. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows mostly 50s and 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Unfavorable conditions dominate the FL events, which move near-source and south or west. The TX events track northwest. Some cloudiness will be present, perhaps even a shower, but spore production is likely so low as to preclude any real chance of epidemic spread.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 8

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 9

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 5, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Unsettled but improving weather eastern sections; calm western sections. Strong weather system affects areas east of the MS River on Friday. Clouds are prevalent and light rain or showers are possible in most locations. The weather improves markedly Saturday and especially Sunday as the system moves off to the northeast. Mostly sunny and dry weather is expected in the south-central U.S. for several days. Highs from the 60s to 80s, lows from the 40s to 60s, warmest temperatures will be found in the south-central U.S..

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in FL on Friday. Clouds and showers are occurring on Friday ahead of the cold front passing through the FL peninsula. Transport events are moving rapidly east. The more favorable conditions lie toward the southern end. Elsewhere today, and for all events Saturday and Sunday, unfavorable conditions are anticipated.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 5

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk for central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 6

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 7

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 3, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Variable, unsettled weather. Widespread clouds and rain accompany a strong spring systerm that impacts western and central sections of the South today (eastern sunny and dry), central and eastern areas on Thursday. Highs from the 60s to 80s, lows from the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Southeast. Thursday's transport events out of FL are much like those of Tuesday, as events are moving fairly rapidly to the northeast. Slightly favorable conditions are expected. Risks are not pronounced, but epidemic spread may occur as far north as eastern NC. Unfavorable conditions are occurring today for the FL events. In TX, rain my fall near the source tonight, but the unfavorable sky condidtions expected today and then again on Thursday after the rain passes, should render the chance of epidemic spread minimal.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 3

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 4

Low Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula, in southeast GA, and in the coastal plains of the CarolinasMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 1, 2017
 

*** Forecast Note - 30 April / 1 May: The forecast for Sunday, April 30 has been updated to reflect increased risk to cucurbits in the Southeast. This forecast is presented again below. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Active weather Southeast; tranquil weather elsewhere. Expect showers and rain in the Southeast today as a cold front sweeps through. Drier there Tuesday with some showers in FL. It will be mostly sunny and dry in the south-central U.S., save for some showers in OK and near the western Gulf Coast Tuesday night, before the next big system impacts the region on Wednesday. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows mostly 50s and 60s with some 70s far south.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in parts of the Southeast. The Southeast has the transport events of note early this week. Southerly / southwesterly winds are taking airborne spores on a curve to the northeast on Monday at a healthy clip. Conditions are slightly favorable to mixed. Given the fairly persistent dry weather in FL, risk to cucurbits will be Low, though effective deposition may take place as far north as southeast NC. Tuesday's events move near-source and south, and with rain expected today and tonight, risks are upped to Moderate for portions of FL on Tuesday. Sunday's updated forecast is given again. Epidemic spread into the mainland Southeast is possible.

Risk prediction map for Yesterday: Sunday, April 30

Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the eastern panhandle, GA except the southeast, western SC, and southwest NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 1

Low Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula, in coastal sections of GA and SC, and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 2

Moderate Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, April 28, 2017
 

*** Forecast Note - 30 April: The forecast for Sunday, April 30 has been updated to reflect increased risk to cucurbits in the Southeast. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Increasingly unsettled south-central U.S. / mid-South; hot and dry Southeast. High pressure centered in the southwest Atlantic is pumping very warm and moist air in the entire South. A frontal system stretches from the mid-Atlantic westward in the central / southern Plains. A vigorous low  pressure / frontal system develops along this front in the central U.S. on Saturday and pushes east, dragging a cold front across the South. Showers and rain move into the south-central U.S. Saturday and the mid-South late Saturday and Sunday. Hot and dry for the Southeast through the weekend, with any showers due to the approaching front holding off until Sunday night. Drying and cooler south-central U.S. on Sunday. Hot with highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. Unsettled weather is forecast for much of next week.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Peculiar situation. Transport events from TX move north Friday and Saturday, toward the developing system. Transport events from FL track northwest Friday and Saturday, north to NNE Sunday. These repeated events involving similar pathways are noteworthy. In most cases, even slightly favorable conditions during these events would produce heightened risk. However ... at this time ... it appears that conditions will be unfavorable enough during each of these events to preclude any risk to cucurbits beyond Minimal. Recent weather near the sources has been dry; no rain is expected near the source regions; and, sky conditions through the late morning and afternoon portions of these events will be sunny (unfavorable). Sunday's transport event out of northern FL will be watched closely. It is during this event that rain is possible, in the Sunday night portion (Friday's and Saturday's events are dry throughout). Any increase in sky cover while spores are airborne may warrant an increase in the risk to cucurbits over the mainland.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, April 28

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, April 29

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, April 30

Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the eastern panhandle, GA except the southeast, western SC, and southwest NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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