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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 3, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 May: First reports from GA; New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Lowndes, Colquitt, and Decatur Counties, GA; and Marion County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 May: Update from FL: CDM has been confirmed in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Daily chance of showers expands / increases. As high pressure in the Ohio Valley / mid-Atlantic shifts east and offshore, the front near the GA / FL border dissipates by midweek. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers are possible each day and increased rain chances move into the interior Southeast. Still very warm with highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Southeast. Transport events move near-source and curve to the north and northeast, especially Tuesday and Wednesday as the High to the north moves offshore. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are expected during all events. This brings the threat of epidemic spread to portions of GA and the Carolinas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 3

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL except the west-central section. Low Risk in west-central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 4

Moderate Risk for cucurbits along the west side of the FL peninsula, the eastern panhandle, and southwest GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern FL, south-central and southeast GA, and far southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, June 5

Moderate Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, the eastern panhandle, and south-central and southwest GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA, central and eastern SC, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, June 1, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 May: First reports from GA; New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Lowndes, Colquitt, and Decatur Counties, GA; and Marion County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 May: Update from FL: CDM has been confirmed in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Hot with possible showers in FL. The front has stalled in northern FL and essentially stays in place this weekend. Expect partly cloudy skies and a chance of showers south of the front. Skies will be mostly sunny north of the front with only a slim chance of precipitation. Highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Any epidemic spread this weekend will be near the known sources in FL. Transport events track near-source and east. Conditions range from unfavorable in southern GA to mixed in portions of FL.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, June 1

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk in central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, June 2

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern and east-central FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in west-central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, May 30, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 May: First reports from GA; New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Lowndes, Colquitt, and Decatur Counties, GA; and Marion County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 May: Update from FL: CDM has been confirmed in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Hot, sunny weather. The large-scale pattern begins to change late in the work-week. High pressure weakens, allowing a cold front to inch its way into the lower Southeast over the next two days. Sunny and hot weather persists. Isolated to scattered showers, along with a few more clouds during the day, are possible on Friday as the front nears the region. Highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Unfavorable conditions are expected region-wide on Thursday. Conditions become slightly favorable to perhaps even mixed for Friday's transport events, which tend to move near-source and ENE. However, any rain that falls will more probably re-vitalize existing infections rather than result in any meaningful epidemic spread.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, May 30

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, May 31

Low Risk for cucurbits in FL except the western panhandle, far southeast AL, southern GA, and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 27, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 May: First reports from GA; New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Lowndes, Colquitt, and Decatur Counties, GA; and Marion County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 May: Update from FL: CDM has been confirmed in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

More dry and hot weather. High pressure at the surface and above persists into midweek. Little to no rain is anticipated, though an isolated shower cannot be ruled out in some locations on Monday or Tuesday. Highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread very unlikely. Transport events track near-source and WNW each day under unfavorable conditions. Some short-range transport and deposition may occur. However, conditions are barely favorable enough to produce Low Risk even in those cases.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 27

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 28

Low Risk near the GA sources. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, May 29

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, May 25, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 May: First reports from GA; New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Lowndes, Colquitt, and Decatur Counties, GA; and Marion County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 May: Update from FL: CDM has been confirmed in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Dry and quite hot. Stagnant weather pattern is in place. High pressure at all levels of the atmosphere is producing hot, dry weather and keeping frontal systems at bay. Expect sunny skies. Highs well into the 90s and lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread very unlikely. Conditions are highly unfavorable for survivable transport and effective deposition of airborne CDM spores. Transport events move near-source (GA) and west (FL) each day.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, May 25

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, May 26

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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