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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, July 3, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 3 July: First report from NJ; new report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Salem County, NJ; and in Wake County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 1 July: First report from AL; new reports from GA and SC. CDM had been confirmed in Lee County, AL; Turner County, GA; and in Darlington and Lexington Counties, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Hot with scattered showers. High pressure centered offshore is in control of the weather. Humidities are high; skies are sunny to partly cloudy. Afternoon / evening showers or storms are a possibility each day, moreso Wednesday and Thursday. The chance of rain is greater toward the lower Southeast. Some of the lower mid-Atlantic and the interior Southeast may remain dry. Highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s. Slight cooling trend by Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread probable in parts of the South. Due to the position of the weather features, wind flows generally from the east / southeast are causing most transport events to run near-source and toward the west. Conditions during most events will be slightly favorable to mixed. Enhanced clouds and precipitation chances on Saturday near the Gulf Coast will elevate risks. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, July 3

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southern AL, and southern GA. Low risk for eastern GA, SC except the northeast, southern NJ, northern DE, northeast MD, and southeast PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, July 4

HIGH Risk for southern GA, the FL panhandle, far southern AL, southern MS, and southeast LA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central MS, northern and central AL, northern and central GA, and all but far northern SC. Low Risk in central and northern FL, far northern SC, NC, southwest NJ, and eastern PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, July 5

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, central and eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Low Risk in central and northern FL, east-central MS, central and northern AL, northern GA, western SC, NC except the far southeast, extreme southern VA, southwest NJ, northern DE, and eastern PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, July 1, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 1 July: First report from AL; new reports from GA and SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 29 June: New report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Cook County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Continued hot; showers Southeast; mostly dry mid-Atlantic. High pressure governs the weather in the eastern U.S., with a hot, sticky air mass present. Numerous showers will occur along the Gulf Coast and in parts of GA / AL. Scattered shower activity is expected elsewhere in the Southeast and in the mountains, the latter due to a cold front approaching from the west. Mostly dry in the mid-Atlantic. Highs in the 90s, lows well into the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Southeast. Transport events track near-source and north to northwest each day. Conditions will be most favorable in the Southeast, where earlier daily cloudiness and a greater chance of showers are in place. Transport and deposition from the mid-Atlantic states are squelched. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, July 1

HIGH Risk for central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern and western GA, and a broad area of central and southeast AL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in SC, parts of the border counties of southeast NC, and eastern GA. Low risk for far northeast AL, far northern GA, southeast TN, and southwest NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, July 2

HIGH Risk for west-central FL, and AL except the southwest. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in western GA. Low Risk in most of SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 29, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 29 June: New report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Cook County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 June: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Chance of showers Southeast; dry mid-Atlantic. Another front has dropped into the upper Southeast, where it will linger into the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure at the surface and aloft dominate. Along and south of the front, scattered showers and storms fire each day. In the mid-Atlantic, north of the front, the environment is much less conducive and no rain is anticipated. Hot, with highs fully in the 90s and lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Transport events move largely near the sources. More clouds and showers will occur toward the lower Southeast and it is there where risks will be highest. Some disease development is possible farther northeast in the coastal areas. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 29

HIGH Risk for central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, and southern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern and eastern NC and southeast NC. Low risk for northeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 30

HIGH Risk for central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, and southwest GA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA and the coastal plains of SC. Low Risk in southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, June 26, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 June: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 17 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Nash and Johnston Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Unsettled Tuesday; increased dryness Wednesday and Thursday. A front is draped from the Carolinas through TN / KY to a parent Low in the Midwest. High pressure lies to the north and south. The front pauses for a day before lifting north as a warm front Wednesday and Thursday. Expect scattered to numerous showers over most of the region on Tuesday. There will be more sunshine and fewer showers Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure aloft asserts itself. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in NC and VA, possible in many East Coast states. The overall mid-week weather picture is one of slightly favorable to mixed conditions for nearly all transport events. The most salient events are those out of NC on Tuesday, which track northwest (the sources lie north of the main front, influenced by quite different wind flows). Conditions are favorable during this time and survivable transport and effective deposition are quite probable for new regions. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, June 26

Transport events move mostly near-source; the NC events move northwest. HIGH Risk for NC except the far east and southwest, and for south-central and southwest VA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL and the panhandle, southeast AL, central and southern GA, and central and eastern SC. Low risk for northwest VA, WV, far western MD, far southeast OH, and southwest PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, June 27

Transport events track near-source and north to northeast. The MD event may impact new areas. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, the eastern 1/2 of NC, central and eastern VA, and far southern MD. Low Risk in most of MD, DE, NJ, eastern PA, and central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, June 28

Transport events move near-source and east. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern NJ, DE, eastern MD, far eastern NC, central and eastern SC, southern GA, and northern and central FL. Low Risk in much of eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, June 24, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Nash and Johnston Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 June: First report from MD. New reports from SC, NC, and GA. CDM has been confirmed in Dorchester County, MD; Bamburg County, SC; Edgecombe County, NC; and Decatur County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Cold front moves toward the Southeast. A front now in the mid-Atlantic gets pushed to the south by high pressure out of Canada, reaching the Southeast by Tuesday morning. Afternoon / evening showers will fire near the front and near weak surface troughs in the Southeast. Greatest amounts of rain will fall near the main front and in parts of FL. Many areas will be dry under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Hot with 90s / 70s most areas, 80s / 60s north of the cold front.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL, possible elsewhere. Epidemic spread is more likely near the sources into early next week. Conditions are slightly favorable to mixed in nearly all cases, the lone exception being Monday's transport event out of FL. Many transport events on Monday will trend west of the known sources and may impact new areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, June 24

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Low risk for northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, the southern half of GA, and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, June 25

HIGH Risk for west-central FL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northeast SC, and south-central and southeast NC. Low Risk in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, southern GA, southern SC, and north-central and northeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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