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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, August 12, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 12 August: First report from OH; new reports from AL, PA, and VA. CDM had been confirmed in Huron County, OH; Limestone and Montgomery Counties, AL; Juniata County, PA; and Accomack County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: First reports from MA, WV, and Canada; new reports from NC, MI, PA, NY, and MD. CDM had been confirmed in Franklin County, MA; Haldimand-Norfolk County, Ontario; Raleigh County, WV; Orange County, NC; Bay and Clinton Counties, MI; Luzerne and Clinton Counties, PA; Greene and Orange Counties, NY; and Prince Georges County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Unsettled lower Lakes / Appalachians / East; drier farther west. A stationary front lies along the coastal mid-Atlantic into the Southeast and curves sharply northwestward toward the mid-MS Valley. High pressure over southern Canada extends into the Midwest / Ohio Valley. Summertime showers will occur near and south / east of the front, with generally drier weather west of the moutnains. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Gulf and south-Atlantic coasts into the Northeast. Mixed conditions are occurring for most of Sunday's transport events. Monday's events nearer the coasts and in the Northeast are the ones that feature the most favorable environments.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, August 12

Transport events move near-source and east and near-source and southwest. HIGH Risk in central and eastern NY, southern VT, western MA, CT, Long Island, northern NJ, and eastern PA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southeast PA, southern NJ, MD, DE, central and eastern WV, VA except the far southest, NC, and SC. Low Risk for northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL, central and southern GA, northeast TN, far southwest VA, central WV, southern ON, southeast MI, and western and northern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, August 13

Transport events track mostly near-source. HIGH Risk in southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, coastal SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, DE, MD, NJ, PA, all but northern NY, eastern Long Island, western CT and MA, and southern VT. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern WV, central and southwest VA, central NC, and central SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in central AL, central and northern GA, western SC and NC, northern OH, southern ON, and northwest PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 10, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: First reports from MA, WV, and Canada; new reports from NC, MI, PA, NY, and MD. CDM had been confirmed in Franklin County, MA; Haldimand-Norfolk County, Ontario; Raleigh County, WV; Orange County, NC; Bay and Clinton Counties, MI; Luzerne and Clinton Counties, PA; Greene and Orange Counties, NY; and Prince Georges County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from NY; new reports from PA, VA, MD, DE, IN, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Tompkins County, NY; Centre County, PA; Chesterfield County, VA; Wicomico County, MD; Sussex County, DE; Porter County, IN; and Muskegon County, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Typical August weather. A tale of two fronts ... one stationary astride the mid-South / Carolinas and another pushing into the Northeast / Ohio Valley. This second front will draw closer to the first, both serving as a focus for afternoon showers. Isolated to scattered showers for most locations on Friday will increase in number on Saturday as more moisture returns. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Most transport events move near-source and east, though there will be some transport west of a few locations. The most favorable conditions will be found in the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians Friday, shifting more toward the eastern mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 10

HIGH Risk in north-central and eastern TN, central and eastern KY, southern WV, and the mountains of VA / NC / SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, AL except the west-central, south-central TN, northwest and southwest VA, central and eastern PA, northern NJ, south-central and southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Low Risk for southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 11

HIGH Risk in eastern NC, central and eastern VA, MD, De, central and eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, western MA, CT, and far southern VT. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern WV, eastern TN and KY, southwest and far southwest VA, central and western NC, SC, southern and eastern GA, southern AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in south-central and east-central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 8, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from NY; new reports from PA, VA, MD, DE, IN, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Tompkins County, NY; Centre County, PA; Chesterfield County, VA; Wicomico County, MD; Sussex County, DE; Porter County, IN; and Muskegon County, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New report from PA. CDM had been confirmed in Bucks County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Variable summer weather. Clouds and showers will focus along a cold front that is pushing into the Northeast / Ohio VAlley. Isolated to scattered showers are found elsewhere. The front trudges southward on Thursday and the better chances of rain go with it. Some northern areas will have showers due to another front moviing into the Great Lakes. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the southern Appalachians and the Northeast. Transport events tend to track near-source and east to northeast each day. A large variety of environmental conditions surrounds the midweek events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 8

HIGH Risk in northwest SC, eastern TN, western NC, eastern KY, southern WV, southwest VA, central and eastern PA, northern NJ, central and eastern NY, CT, and Long Island. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern and eastern MI, northern OH and IN, southern ON, northwest PA, southeast AL, the FL panhandle, and central and southern GA. Low Risk for far eastern GA, all but northwest SC, central and eastern NC, south-central and eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, RI , MA, far northeastern NY, northern VT, southern QE, and west-central MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 9

HIGH Risk in eastern TN, northern GA, and western NC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle and northern FL, southern AL, central and southern GA, SC, south-central and eastern NC, southern ON, northern IN, northern OH, northwest PA, and far western NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in central NY, eastern KY, southwest WV, far southwest VA, north-central NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, August 5, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New report from PA. CDM had been confirmed in Bucks County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 August: First report from IN; new reports from NJ, VA, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Lagrange County, IN; Hunterdon County, NJ; Suffolk County, VA; and Arenac and Saginaw Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

More-typical summertime weather. High pressure extends over the eastern U.S. from the western Atlantic Ocean. The strong middle / upper atmospheric features that have been driving the recent wet weather have relaxed or moved out. What remains are sunny to partly cloudy skies and scattered PM showers or storms in various areas each day. A cold front brings a better chance of rain to the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. Highs mostly 90s, lows mostly 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in MI on Monday. Conditions are slightly favorable to mixed for nearly all transport events. Winds are generally light during this period, so most transport events stay near the known sources.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, August 5

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast GA, SC, and western and eastern NC. Low Risk for southeast MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle and far northern FL, central and southern GA, eastern TN, central and far eastern NC, and eastern VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, August 6

HIGH Risk in central and eastern lower MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southwest MI, northern IN, southern OH, western WV, eastern KY, far southwest VA, northeast TN, western and southeast NC, SC, and southwest / central / eastern GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast MS, central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southeast GA, a broad area of central and eastern NC, central and eastern VA, southwest MD, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, August 7

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast MS, central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southwest and eastern GA, the Carolinas, eastern TN and KY, southern WV, southwest and eastern VA, southern MD, the eastern half of PA, south-central NY, northern IN, northwest OH, most of lower MI, and far southern ON. Low Risk to cucurbits in DE, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 3, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 3 August: First report from IN; new reports from NJ, VA, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Lagrange County, IN; Hunterdon County, NJ; Suffolk County, VA; and Arenac and Saginaw Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: First reports from TN and MI; new reports from PA and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Knox County, TN; Berrien County, MI; Lancaster County, PA; and Hunterdon County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Active weather Friday, diminishing some on Saturday. An upper-level pattern that has been very supportive of eastern U.S. rainfall continues on Friday but will begin to relax thereafter. The East Coast states / South are quite wet on Friday; scattered showers are expected on Saturday. Weather will be drier west of the mountains though some showers are possible. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South and East. Transport events tend to track mostly east to northeast Friday and Saturday. Conditions are quite favorable for epidemic spread over a very large area on Friday. Favorability lessens on Saturday yet the large majority of events will still have mixed to favorable conditions.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 3

HIGH Risk for central and southeast AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, and southeast NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southeast LA, southeast MS, southwest AL, and eastern TN. Low Risk for central NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH, and southwest ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 4

HIGH Risk in southern New England, Long Island, southeast NY, far eastern PA, northern and central NJ, far eastern NC, southeast MS, southwest AL, and the western panhandle of FL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the eastern panhandle, central and southeast AL, GA, eastern TN, SC, all but far eastern NC, VA, MD except the far west, DE, southern NJ, and central and eastern PA. Low Risk to cucurbits in southern VT and NH, and far southeast ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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