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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 30, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry. A new cold front enters the central and eastern U.S. as last week's system ejects into the Northeast / southeast Canada. There is not much precipitation associated with this front. There will be some rain / snow showers in the North, and clouds / rain moving into south-central U.S. on Tuesday. Highs in the 40s to 70s, lows in the 30s to 50s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread quite unlikely. Any disease development early this week will be limited to locations near the sources toward the western side of the Gulf of Mexico. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 30

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 31

Low Risk for cucurbits near the sources in TX and southern LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 27, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Strong Autumn cold front plows through eastern North America. Rain and showers will spread from east-central North America on Friday to eastern regions on Saturday. As the front pivots east and northeast, dry and cold weather returns to most areas on Sunday, with showers in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Temperatures change markedly on either side of the front. Highs will be in the 60s to 80s and lows mostly in the 50s and 60s ahead of the front; temperatures behind will be some 20 degrees colder.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in some areas. Fall temperatures and other factors are asserting themselves to the point where remaining chances of epidemic spread should be limited to areas in the deep South and along the Atlantic coast. Some spread in those regions is possible, more toward the South Friday and Saturday and in the East on Sunday. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 27

Low Risk for cucurbits in MS, AL, western GA, and the western FL panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 28

Moderate Risk for central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the eastern panhandle, far southeast AL, and southern GA, eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 29

Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern sections of NC, VA, MD, and PA; and, NJ, DE, southeast NY, CT, western and central MA, southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 25, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry during midweek. The cold front is moving off the East Coast but it will stall in the New England states. High pressure and dry weather have moved into eastern North America. A few weak disturbances and the lingering front will produce some showers activity in the northern areas. Highs from the 50s to 70s and lows from the 30s to 50s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread very unlikely. Cold to very cold overnight temperatures in most regions will squash the chance for much spore production or later infection (during those few transport events when rain may fall). The only areas that could see some local disease development are near-coastal sections of New England and southern FL. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 25

Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, eastern CT, RI, central MA, and southern NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 26

Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern CT, RI, central and eastern MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 23, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

An unsettled period. Two cold fronts merge as they sweep through eastern North America. Widespread rain and showers accompany the front(s) as they press toward the East Coast. Drying begins in many areas on Tuesday, though rain will persist in the Great Lakes near an intensifying low pressure area. Highs from the 50s to 80s and lows from the 40s to 60s, with a big cooling trend into midweek.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible during a flurry of slightly favorable to mixed weather. Unfavorable conditions continue to be dominant. Some disease development is possible in parts of FL and TX, plus a few other areas during Sunday's transport events. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 23

Moderate Risk in FL except the western panhandle, southern and eastern GA, SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Low Risk for cucurbits in the western FL panhandle, eastern AL, northwest GA, western and central NC, central and western VA, northeast TN, WV, KY, IN, OH, southern MI, southern ON, all but northern NY, PA, central and northern NJ, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 24

Moderate Risk for central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, eastern KY, southern OH, western WV, eastern NC and VA, eastern MD, DE, far eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY and Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 20, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather, chance of showers east-central U.S. by Sunday. High pressure and dry weather are the hallmarks of this weekend's weather. A cold front pushes east of the Rockies on Saturday. Showers will occur in the central and then east-central U.S. late Saturday into Sunday. Warm with highs mostly 70s and 80s, lows mostly 40s to 60s, cooler temperatures behind the front.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Unfavorable conditions continue to be dominant. Some disease development is possible in parts of FL and TX, plus a few other areas during Sunday's transport events. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 20

Moderate Risk in southern FL and near the eastern TX source. Low Risk for cucurbits in central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 21

Moderate Risk for southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in central FL, western MS, and east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 22

Moderate Risk for FL, southwest AL, and southern MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast MS, AL except the southwest, southern GA, southern SC, northeast MO, western KY, eastern IL, IN, southern MI, and northwest OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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