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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 25, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 AugustNew reports from MI and NHCDM has been confirmed in Muskegon County, MI; and Hillsborough County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 August: New report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Chambers County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Wet in TX / LA and FL; dry elsewhere. Hurricane Harvey, which reformed in the Bay of Campeche during midweek, is moving toward the TX central coast. Outer rainbands are already affecting the coastal areas. Huge amounts of rain are expected in TX and later LA this weekend into early next week as Harvey makes landfall and drifts slowly near the TX coast. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure area over FL and the nearby midweek front combine to generate heavy rain in FL and showers along the south-Atlantic and Gulf coasts. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes / southeast Canada governs the weather otherwise with mostly sunny skies and dry weather. A new front may produce some showers in the Midwest on Sunday. Highs in the 70s and 80s with a few 90s South. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in TX and FL. The focus is on the southern regions once again for this package. Wet weather in TX and FL supports elevated risks each day; slightly favorable to mixed conditions are expected for the events near the Gulf and south-Atlantic coasts. Transport events are generally moving near the sources across the southern areas. There will also be low levels of risk in a few other regions on one day or another, but nearly all other transport events are benign during the next 3 days.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 25

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in southern and southeast TX, northern FL, southeast GA, and southern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest GA, southeast AL, the eastern FL panhandle, eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 26

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern and southeast TX and the FL peninsulaModerate Risk in northern and central LA and southwest MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast LA, far southern MS, far southern AL, the FL panhandle, far southern GA, coastal SC and NC, western NC, and part of southwest VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 27

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL and southern and southeast TXModerate Risk in southwest AL , southern MS, and LA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, coastal NC, northern IN, northeast IL, western MI, and eastern WI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 23, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 23 August: New report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Chambers County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 AugustFirst report from CTnew reports from IN and OHCDM has been confirmed in Middlesex County, CT; LaPorte County, IN; and Harrison and Licking Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled South; mostly dry North. A full-latitude cold front stretches from New England down the East Coast and west into TX. High pressure surging southward from Canada ushers in dry, cooler weather for much of eastern North America over the next 2-3 days. Rain and showers will fall along and ahead of the front as it gets pushed to the south-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. A weak disturbance will trigger generally light rain near the lower Lakes. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of FL and NC / SC. Attention is directed toward the southern areas during midweek, where a variety of conditions surround the transport events (mixed in most cases). Transport events tend to track near the sources and to the east or southeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 23

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in eastern LA, MS, AL, central and southern GA, the Carolinas, and southern VA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, the western half of NY, and near the sources in QC and southeast TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 24

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, eastern SC, and coastal NCModerate Risk in far eastern OH, northwest PA, western and central NY, far southeast VA, east-central and northeast NC, southern and east-central SC, southern GA, northern FL and the panhandle, southern AL, southern MS, eastern and southeast LA, and near the southeast TX source. Low Risk for cucurbits near the southern TX source, south-central AL, central GA, and west-central SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 21, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 AugustFirst report from CTnew reports from IN and OHCDM has been confirmed in Middlesex County, CT; LaPorte County, IN; and Harrison and Licking Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 18 August: First report from Quebec; new reports from KY and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Les Maskoutains County, QE; Breathitt County, KY; and Blount County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active North and Central; showers South; drier in between. The two main weather features are high pressure sprawled over eastern North America and a wavy frontal system in southern Canada / upper Lakes / central Plains. Scattered showers will fall in parts of the South each day. As the frontal system swings south and east, clouds and rain will follow suit, moving fron the north-central areas Monday into the Northeast and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with some cooler readings in the North on Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the northern areas. Transport events are moving near-source and east to northeast each day. Conditions for epidemic spread become more favorable on Tuesday compared to Monday, due the sharpening front advancing into regions with CDM.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 21

Moderate Risk in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern GA, eastern SC, eastern MI, southern ON, OH, PA, and western NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in central AL and GA, central SC, the NC mountains, southeast NC, northern IN, MD, DE, NJ, Long Island, CT, western MA, and southeast and central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern KY, western WV, OH, eastern MI, western and northern PA, NY except the southeast, southern ON, southern QC, and northwest VTModerate Risk in FL, southern MS, central and southern AL, and southern 1/2 of GA, eastern SC, southeast NC, northern IN, central MI, central WV, western MD, southeast and eastern PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and all of New England. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern AL, central and western SC, western and central NC, southwest VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 18, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 August: First report from Quebec; new reports from KY and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Les Maskoutains County, QE; Breathitt County, KY; and Blount County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: First report from NH; new reports from OH and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Cheshire County, NH; St. Joseph County, MI; and Hardin, Montgomery, and Greene Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Variable and unsettled; some drying on Sunday. A cold front is moving into the southern and eastern states accompanied by rain and showers. Unsettled weather continues Saturday and Sunday in the South with the front turning stationary there. Meanwhile, a secondary system in the central U.S. generates some rain or showers as it traverses the northern areas Friday and Saturday. Dry weather is forecast for many areas outside of the southern states on Sunday. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Northeast / southern QE. The most prominent day of the next 3 is today, Friday, with favorable conditions for epidemic spread in the Northeast U.S. / southeast Canada and in a few areas in the South. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are observed in many other areas. The situation begins to calm on Saturday, with slightly favorable to mixed conditions for most transport events, and especially so by Sunday when the possbilities for long-range epidemic spread are confined to the southern areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, southern MS, northern VA, MD, DE, central and eastern PA, NJ, central and eastern NY, Long Island, New England except central and eastern ME, and southern Quebec. Moderate Risk in central and southern VA, NC, western SC, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southern AL, central and southern GA, central and eastern SC, southeast NC, northern WV, eastern OH, western PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 19

Moderate Risk in the FL peninsula, southeast GA, eastern SC, eastern NC, southeast MI, OH, southern ON, western and west-central NY, western and central PA, northern WV, and western MD. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, southwest GA, eastern PA, and east-central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 20

Moderate Risk in FL, southern MS, southern AL, southern GA, and eastern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in south-central AL, west-central GA, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 16, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: First report from NH; new reports from OH and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Cheshire County, NH; St. Joseph County, MI; and Hardin, Montgomery, and Greene Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: New reports from NY and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Columbia and Tompkins Counties, NY; and Calhoun County, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled weather continues. Clouds and rain (central U.S.) and showers (Southeast) move north and east over the next several days as a large, extended frontal system impacts eastern North America. The Great Lakes / Northeast will be dry Wednesday before wetter weather arrives on Thursday. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the North (Thursday) and Southeast. A variety of conditions are forecast for the transport events coming out of the southern sources, the majority mixed to favorable. Intially unfavorable conditions in the northern areas on Wednesday will change to favorable as warm front approaches from the south and a low pressure / cold front approaches from the west. Transport events move near the sources and east on Wednesday, near-source and north on Thursday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central MS, western AL, and the western FL panhandle. Moderate Risk in central and southern FL, eastern AL, eastern FL panhandle, western GA, the NC mountains, northeast SC, eastern NC, northern KY, southern OH, and northern WV. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, central GA, northwest SC, and the NC foothills. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 17

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern IN, MI, southern ON, central and northern OH, northern WV, central and western MD, PA, and the western 1/2 of NY. Moderate Risk in northeast KY, southern OH, far eastern PA, NJ, DE, eastern MD, VA except the southeast, western and central NC, SC, GA, AL, and FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern MS, eastern NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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