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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, May 9, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 9 May: New report from FL: CDM has been confirmed in St. Lucie County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 29 April: First reports from the U.S.: CDM has been confirmed in Miami-Dade, Collier, Hendry, and Hillsborough Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Strong Spring frontal system moving into the eastern U.S.. The weather during the latter part of the workweek is driven by high pressure in the western Atlantic and a cold fron approaching from the central U.S.. Warm, moist flow from the east and southeast will fuel daily rounds of scattered showers and storms in many areas of the lower Southeast. Sunny to PC skies with increasing clouds during the afternoons. Highs in the 80s and low 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Elevated risks for FL growing regions; small threat to the mainland areas. Transport events move west / northwest / north each day, with the second day's travel drawing closer to the mainland areas as winds shift and increase. Conditions are such that risks are Moderate to High in portions of FL. They remain favorable enough by Friday's events to warrant risk to mainland growing areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, May 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southwest FL. Moderate Risk in southeast FL Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, May 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in far southern FL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in south-central FL and northern sections of southern FL. Low Risk in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, and southwest GA. Minimal Risk elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 6, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 29 April: First reports from the U.S.: CDM has been confirmed in Miami-Dade, Collier, Hendry, and Hillsborough Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Unsettled with a drying trend. The cold front that moved into the region over the weekend sags slowly southward trough the FL peninsula over the next several days. Dry weather is expected for the mainland. Showers continue for the peninsula, but coverage diminishes as the week progresses. Highs in the 80s and low 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Favorable conditions for epidemic spread decrease into midweek. The threat of epidemic spread should remain confined to the FL peninsula during the next 3 days. The more favorable weather will be found on Monday, the less favorable on Wednesday, with Tuesday an in-between day. Transport events on Wednesday curve northwest and north during their second day of travel, but sunny skies and considerable spore death during transport should yield minimal risk to mainland growing areas. Events move mostly near-source Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday's events track more rapidly west / then northwest / then north.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in east-central and southeast FL. Moderate Risk in west-central and southwest FL Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 7

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk in lower west-central FL. Minimal Risk elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, May 8

Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest FL. Minimal Risk elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, May 4, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 29 April: First reports from the U.S.: CDM has been confirmed in Miami-Dade, Collier, Hendry, and Hillsborough Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Unsettled weather. A cold front inches its way into the Southeast over the next two days. Sunny to partly cloudy skies predominate most areas. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms will fire, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Wam with highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely. Transport events track to the northeast / ENE. Conditions are mixed to favorable for survivable transport and effective deposition in central and southern FL. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, May 4

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southeast FL. Moderate Risk in southwest FL Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, May 5

HIGH Risk for central and southeast FL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southwest FL. Minimal Risk elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, May 2, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 29 April: First reports from the U.S.: CDM has been confirmed in Miami-Dade, Collier, Hendry, and Hillsborough Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Variable weather with scattered showers. High pressure is still in control as it shifts farther east. Shower activity increases today with possible lesser coverage Friday, under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs in the 80s, lows mostly 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely. Mixed to favorable conditions surround the transport events of Thursday and Friday, which are tracking generally northeast. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, May 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southeast FL. Moderate Risk in southwest FL Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, May 3

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk for south-central FL. Minimal Risk elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, April 29, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 29 April: First reports from the U.S.: CDM has been confirmed in Miami-Dade, Collier, Hendry, and Hillsborough Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Dry and warm with a few showers possible southern FL. High pressure centered off the coast of the Carolinas will govern the weather through much of the week. Expect seasonally warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies. Easterly flow may produce isolated showers in portions of southern FL each day. Highs well into the 80s and lower 90s. Lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Transport events from southern and central FL track west and then northwest to north each day. Sunny to partly cloudy skies and the chance of isolated showers produce low risk to cucurbits in that region. Threat from these sources to growing areas near the central Gulf Coast appears minimal, as solar insolation will have no less than one day and perhaps two to kill any airborne spores. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, April 29

Low risk for southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, April 30

Low Risk in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, May 1

Low Risk in far southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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