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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 8, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 8 July: First report from NJ. CDM has been confirmed in Salem County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 July: New report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Chilton County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Active weather persists in the Southeast, subsides briefly in the mid-Atlantic. The cold front that pushed into the northern mid-Atlantic Sunday should reach the Southeast and stall on Tuesday. That leaves the Southeast in the warm/hot and humid airmass early this week and daily showers will continue. Showers are expected in the mid-Atlantic on Monday, followed by drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak area of low pressure developing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico may enhance the chance of rainfall. Highs in the 80s mid-Atlantic, 90s Southeast. Lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and eastern mid-Atlantic. Forecast pathways from the known sources vary on Monday and Tuesday. Most on Wednesday travel north though some move west. Conditions are mixed to favorable for epidemic spread for nearly all events on Monday and for those coming out of the Southeast and NC Tuesday and Wednesday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 8

HIGH Risk in the FL eastern panhandle, southwest GA, most of eastern NC, east-central and eastern VA, central and southern MD, DE, southern NJ, and southeast PA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast NC, northeast SC, central GA, central and southern AL except the west, and the western FL panhandle. Low Risk in southern SC, southeast GA, and the FL panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 9

HIGH Risk in the FL eastern panhandle, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, and eastern NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the western panhandle, central and southern AL, central GA, and west-central SCLow risk for the FL peninsula, northern GA, northwest SC, and NC except for the far NE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, July 10

HIGH Risk in the eastern panhandle of FL, most of southern GA, and central and eastern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the FL western panhandle, southeast AL, central GA, western SC, and south-central and southeast NCLow risk for the FL peninsula, central and southwest AL, and eastern MS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, July 6, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 4 July: New report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Chilton County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 June: First reports from MD, AL, and VA. New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Caroline County, MD; Lee and Macon Counties, AL; Isle of Wight County, VA; and Johnston County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Active weather. Persistent pattern is in place with a strong Bermuda High, sunny to partly cloudy skies, and scattered to numerous showers and storms each day. A front dropping through the mid-Atlantic Ohio Valley on Sunday and other smaller-scale weather features serve as foci for showers. Highs in the upper 80s and 90s, lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along the East Coast. Transport events track east to northeast from the known sources. Mixed to favorable conditions for survivable transport and effective deposition are expected during nearly all events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, July 6

HIGH Risk in the FL eastern panhandle, far southeast AL, southern GA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, eastern SC, eastern NC, and southeast VA. Low Risk in central and southern FL, east-central AL, west-central GA, central and northern NJ, Long Island, and far southern CT and RI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, July 7

HIGH Risk in DE, eastern MD, southeast VA, and eastern NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the coastal plains of SC, central and southern GA, eastern AL, and northern FL / eastern panhandleLow risk for central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, July 4, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 4 July: New report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Chilton County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 June: First reports from MD, AL, and VA. New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Caroline County, MD; Lee and Macon Counties, AL; Isle of Wight County, VA; and Johnston County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Sultry and unsettled. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are a daily occurrence late this week in our regions of interest. Temperatures will be very warm to hot, tempered only by increased cloud cover, with highs in the upper 80s and 90s and lows in the 70s. The Bermuda High anchoring this pattern will likely remain strong through the weekend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely. Rainfall in the upper Southeast / mid-Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday will serve to re-invigorate existing infections in those areas. Risks to cucurbits for Friday's transport events will be higher than those for Thursday for that reason. Transport events move north to northeast from most sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, July 4

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the northern 1/2 of the FL peninsula, the FL panhandle, central and southern AL, the southern half of GA, southern and eastern SC, the eastern half of NC, south-central and eastern VA, southeast MD, DE, and southern NJ. Low Risk in eastern PA, southeast NY, western Long Island, central and northern NJ, and the southern FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, July 5

HIGH Risk in central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, the southern half of GA, central and eastern SC, the eastern half of NC, central and eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, central and southern NJ. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FLLow risk for central and southern FL, northeast PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 1, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 27 June: First reports from MD, AL, and VA. New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Caroline County, MD; Lee and Macon Counties, AL; Isle of Wight County, VA; and Johnston County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 June: New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Edgecombe County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Hot and mostly dry. The strong Bermuda High is in charge of the weather this week, producing a hot and humid environment. It will be dry to start the work-week with the chance of showers on the upswing as the week progresses. Highs well into the 90s, lows only in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. The spring growing season is almost completely done in central and southern FL and is coming to a close in northern FL and southern GA. This reduces inoculum levels coming out of those sources. Recent weather in the Carolinas / southeast VA has been dry around nearly all the sources, also hindering spore production. Conditions during the transport events range from unfavorable to mixed as any airborne spores move near-source, east, or northeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 1

Low Risk in southeast AL, southwest GA, the eastern FL panhandle, and all but the far northern FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 2

Low risk for southeast AL, southern GA, and FL except the western panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, July 3

Low risk for FL except the western panhandle, southeast AL, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, eastern NC, southeast VA, eastern MD, and DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, June 29, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 27 June: First reports from MD, AL, and VA. New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Caroline County, MD; Lee and Macon Counties, AL; Isle of Wight County, VA; and Johnston County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 June: New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Edgecombe County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Summertime weather. High pressure extends over southern and central sections of the eastern U.S. from the western Atlantic Ocean. It will be sunny to partly cloudy, hot, and humid during the next several days. Afternoon / evening showers and storms will occur in various areas. Showers will be more prevalent in the Southeast. Some may concentrate near a cold front moving southward through the mid-Atlantic states. Hot with highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s, with some 80s/60s in the mountains and northern areas.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. There will be a gradation of conditions conducive to survivable transport and deposition of airborne spores, the more favorable to the south and the less favorable to the north. Transport events move generally near-source and east on Saturday, and east and southeast on Sunday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, June 29

HIGH Risk for FL, central and southeast AL, central and southern GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern MD, central and southern DE, and far southern NJ. Low Risk in eastern SC, east-central and eastern NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, June 30

HIGH Risk for FL except the western panhandle, and southwest GA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in east-central AL and west-central GA. Low risk for southeast GA, the coastal plains of SC and NC, and far southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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