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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 8, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from NY; new reports from PA, VA, MD, DE, IN, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Tompkins County, NY; Centre County, PA; Chesterfield County, VA; Wicomico County, MD; Sussex County, DE; Porter County, IN; and Muskegon County, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New report from PA. CDM had been confirmed in Bucks County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Variable summer weather. Clouds and showers will focus along a cold front that is pushing into the Northeast / Ohio VAlley. Isolated to scattered showers are found elsewhere. The front trudges southward on Thursday and the better chances of rain go with it. Some northern areas will have showers due to another front moviing into the Great Lakes. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the southern Appalachians and the Northeast. Transport events tend to track near-source and east to northeast each day. A large variety of environmental conditions surrounds the midweek events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 8

HIGH Risk in northwest SC, eastern TN, western NC, eastern KY, southern WV, southwest VA, central and eastern PA, northern NJ, central and eastern NY, CT, and Long Island. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern and eastern MI, northern OH and IN, southern ON, northwest PA, southeast AL, the FL panhandle, and central and southern GA. Low Risk for far eastern GA, all but northwest SC, central and eastern NC, south-central and eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, RI , MA, far northeastern NY, northern VT, southern QE, and west-central MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 9

HIGH Risk in eastern TN, northern GA, and western NC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle and northern FL, southern AL, central and southern GA, SC, south-central and eastern NC, southern ON, northern IN, northern OH, northwest PA, and far western NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in central NY, eastern KY, southwest WV, far southwest VA, north-central NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, August 5, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New report from PA. CDM had been confirmed in Bucks County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 August: First report from IN; new reports from NJ, VA, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Lagrange County, IN; Hunterdon County, NJ; Suffolk County, VA; and Arenac and Saginaw Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

More-typical summertime weather. High pressure extends over the eastern U.S. from the western Atlantic Ocean. The strong middle / upper atmospheric features that have been driving the recent wet weather have relaxed or moved out. What remains are sunny to partly cloudy skies and scattered PM showers or storms in various areas each day. A cold front brings a better chance of rain to the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. Highs mostly 90s, lows mostly 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in MI on Monday. Conditions are slightly favorable to mixed for nearly all transport events. Winds are generally light during this period, so most transport events stay near the known sources.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, August 5

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast GA, SC, and western and eastern NC. Low Risk for southeast MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle and far northern FL, central and southern GA, eastern TN, central and far eastern NC, and eastern VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, August 6

HIGH Risk in central and eastern lower MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southwest MI, northern IN, southern OH, western WV, eastern KY, far southwest VA, northeast TN, western and southeast NC, SC, and southwest / central / eastern GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast MS, central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southeast GA, a broad area of central and eastern NC, central and eastern VA, southwest MD, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, August 7

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast MS, central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southwest and eastern GA, the Carolinas, eastern TN and KY, southern WV, southwest and eastern VA, southern MD, the eastern half of PA, south-central NY, northern IN, northwest OH, most of lower MI, and far southern ON. Low Risk to cucurbits in DE, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 3, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 3 August: First report from IN; new reports from NJ, VA, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Lagrange County, IN; Hunterdon County, NJ; Suffolk County, VA; and Arenac and Saginaw Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: First reports from TN and MI; new reports from PA and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Knox County, TN; Berrien County, MI; Lancaster County, PA; and Hunterdon County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Active weather Friday, diminishing some on Saturday. An upper-level pattern that has been very supportive of eastern U.S. rainfall continues on Friday but will begin to relax thereafter. The East Coast states / South are quite wet on Friday; scattered showers are expected on Saturday. Weather will be drier west of the mountains though some showers are possible. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South and East. Transport events tend to track mostly east to northeast Friday and Saturday. Conditions are quite favorable for epidemic spread over a very large area on Friday. Favorability lessens on Saturday yet the large majority of events will still have mixed to favorable conditions.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 3

HIGH Risk for central and southeast AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, and southeast NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southeast LA, southeast MS, southwest AL, and eastern TN. Low Risk for central NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH, and southwest ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 4

HIGH Risk in southern New England, Long Island, southeast NY, far eastern PA, northern and central NJ, far eastern NC, southeast MS, southwest AL, and the western panhandle of FL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the eastern panhandle, central and southeast AL, GA, eastern TN, SC, all but far eastern NC, VA, MD except the far west, DE, southern NJ, and central and eastern PA. Low Risk to cucurbits in southern VT and NH, and far southeast ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, July 31, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: First reports from TN and MI; new reports from PA and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Knox County, TN; Berrien County, MI; Lancaster County, PA; and Hunterdon County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: First reports from KY; new report from AL. CDM had been confirmed in Pulaski and Breathitt Counties, KY; and Russell County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Very wet weather. A warm front over the mid-Atlantic is connected to a low pressure area in the Ohio Valley. An attendant quasi-stationary cold front extends southwestward into TX/LA. The fronts change position somewhat but do not move much until later this week. The subtropical floodgates are open and moisture abounds. Showers and/or storms are likely for nearly all areas of the eastern U.S. through midweek. Some drying may occur in the the Ohio Valley by Thursday. Highs mostly in the 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: HIGH Risk for cucurbits throughout the eastern United States. We are in a prolonged period of very favorable weather for epidemic spread. Transport events move north/NW Tuesday, generally north/NE Wednesday and Thursday. Susceptible plants in larege regions of the eastern U.S. are going to expericence multiple rounds of survivable spore transport and effective deposition.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, July 31

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern and eastern AL, all but southeast GA, SC, NC, eastern TN, eastern KY, the Virginias, MD, DE, most of PA, western NY, southern and eastern OH, southwest MI, northwest IN, far northeast IL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in NJ, far eastern PA, central NY. Low Risk for southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, August 1

HIGH Risk in southeast AL, the FL panhandle, most of GA, the Carolinas, northeast TN, eastern KY, VA, central and southern WV, MD, DE, central and western NJ, central and western PA, central NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NJ, Long Island, eastern NY, and western CT and MA. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, southern MI, northern IN, and northwest OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, August 2

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, GA, SC, eastern TN and KY, all but far eastern sections of NC / VA / MD, WV, central and eastern PA, and central NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the far eastern eastern sections of NC / VA / MD, DE, NJ, eastern NY, Long Island, and western CT and MA. Low Risk to cucurbits in VT, NH, central and eastern MA, eastern CT, RI, southern QE, and southern lower MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, July 29, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: First reports from KY; new report from AL. CDM had been confirmed in Pulaski and Breathitt Counties, KY; and Russell County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 July: New reports from PA, NJ, and NC. CDM had been confirmed in Lehigh County, PA; Cumberland County, NJ; and Haywood County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Active weather for most of this week. A stationary front is off the northern mid-Atlantic coast and extends southwestward through the Carolinas and deep South. As the upper-level and surface weather features evolve, scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue in the Southeast, expand back into the mid-Atlantic states, and then move over the bulk of the eastern U.S.. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows mostly in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Transport events track mostly near the sources on Sunday, and near-source to north and northwest on Monday. There will be a variety of conditions during each day's transport events, with favorability for epidemic spread increasing with time.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, July 29

HIGH Risk for southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, SC except the northwest, central and eastern NC, and far southeast VA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northwest SC, western NC, southwest and central VA. Low Risk for far eastern VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, July 30

HIGH Risk in central and southern AL, GA, the FL border counties, northeast TN, the Carolinas, VA, eastern WV, MD, DE, southern NJ, and west-central and southern PA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the eastern half of KY, east-central and northern PA, western NY, and nearby southern ON. Low Risk to cucurbits in central NY, northeast PA, far western PA, central and western WV, southern OH, and most of southern and central IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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