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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, August 19, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 19 August: First report from WI; new reports from MI, SC, and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Columbia County, WI; Allegan, Berrien, Newaygo, and Ingham Counties, MI; Chesterfield County, SC; Worcester County, MA; and Montour County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 17 August: New reports from NY and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Yates and Ontario Counties, NY; and Medina County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

More active weather for the next several days. Scattered showers are expected from the Gulf Coast through the TN Valley and mid-Atlantic on Sunday, due to the presence of a wobbly stationary front stretching from the Virginias back through KY / TN and beyond. Dry Sunday from the Great Lakes into the Northeast courtesy of high pressure in southeast Canada. Dry weather persists in the Northeast and lower Lakes on Monday. Much of the rest of the eastern U.S. will have numerous showers as a low pressure develops in the central U.S. and moves toward the Great Lakes. Highs mostly 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in many areas. Transport events move east and northeast on Sunday. On Monday, events track northeast from the southern sources, northwest and west from the more northern sources. Conditions are most favorable in a few separated areas during Sunday's events. More widespread favorable conditions exist during Monday's events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, August 19

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southern 1/2 of AL, southwestern GA, western NC, DE, northern MD, central and eastern PA, central and southern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern MD, VA except the southwest, central and eastern NC, SC, central and southern GA except the southwest. Low Risk for southeast KY, southern WV, southwest VA, northeast TN, far northeast PA, northern NJ, southeast NY and Long Island, CT, and lower MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, August 20

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, AL, GA except the southeast, western and central SC, NC, central and eastern TN and KY, southern OH, southern WV, southwest VA, northwest IN, far southwest MI, northern IL, southern WI, and eastern IA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast GA, eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Low Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern WV, central and eastern VA, and western and far southern MD. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 17, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 August: New reports from NY and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Yates and Ontario Counties, NY; and Medina County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: New reports from MI and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Clinton and Van Buren Counties, MI; and Suffolk County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

An unsettled pattern. High pressure lies over the southern and eastern U.S.. A wavy, largely stationary front is situated over the Northeast / Ohio Valley / Plains. The front sags east and south today and Saturday and summertime shower activity expands to cover most of the eastern U.S. / southern Canada. A drier day is expected in the Great lakes / Northeast on Saturday as the front edges away. Highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely nearly all areas on one or both days. Favorable conditions in the Northeast / southern Canada and along and west of the Appalachians on Friday will be found in many of those areas during Saturday's transport events, plus a number of other. Transport events tend to move to the northeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 17

HIGH Risk in lower MI, northern OH, southern ON, NY, southern NH, western and central MA, RI, CT, and northern NJ, PA, northwest MD, WV, western and southwest VA, eastern KY, central and eastern TN, western NC, western GA, AL, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in easetern GA, SC, southern and eastern NC, central MD, northern DE, southern NJ, Long Island, and eastern MA. Low Risk for southern De, southern MD, central and eastern VA, and north-central NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 18

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, AL, GA except the southeast, central and eastern TN and KY, northern and central SC, NC, the Virginias, MD, DE, central and eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast GA and southern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern OH, far western and far northern PA, far northern WV, and central and eastern NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, August 14, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: New reports from MI and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Clinton and Van Buren Counties, MI; and Suffolk County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 12 August: First report from OH; new reports from AL, PA, and VA. CDM has been confirmed in Huron County, OH; Limestone and Montgomery Counties, AL; Juniata County, PA; and Accomack County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Variable summer weather. A dissipating stationary front along the East Coast Thursday provides focus for showers, mainly in the Northeast and lower Southeast. Mainly dry weather west of the mountains on Thursday shifts to more unsettled Wednesday and Thursday as a front in southern Canada / central U.S. moves south and east. Much of the East Coast, save for parts of the Southeast, will be drier until later Thursday or Friday. Highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely across the northern tier and parts of the South. Transport events tend to track near-source and north to northeast during the midweek period. Conditions will vary from region to region and from day to day. The better chances of epidemic spread occur nearer the fronts in the North, and in the very moist regime in the South.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, August 14

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern GA, central and eastern PA, central and northern NJ, central and eastern PA, VT, and western sections of CT, MA, and NH. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in coastal SC and NC, eastern MD, DE, Long Island, eastern CT, RI, central and eastern MA, and southern NH. Low Risk for northeast VT, most of NH, southeast VA / far northeast NC, southern WV, southwest VA, northeast TN, and southwest NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, August 15

HIGH Risk in the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, northern IN, and southwest MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in lower MI except the southwest, southern ON, northern OH, northwest PA, the western FL panhandle, southern AL, and central GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, August 16

HIGH Risk in northern IN, lower MI, southern ON, northern OH, western and central PA, and the western half of NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern OH, western and southern WV, the eastern half of KY, central and eastern TN, southwest VA, the NC mountians, AL, northern and western GA, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in SC, southeast NC, eastern PA, northwest NJ, and southeast NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, August 12, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 12 August: First report from OH; new reports from AL, PA, and VA. CDM had been confirmed in Huron County, OH; Limestone and Montgomery Counties, AL; Juniata County, PA; and Accomack County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: First reports from MA, WV, and Canada; new reports from NC, MI, PA, NY, and MD. CDM had been confirmed in Franklin County, MA; Haldimand-Norfolk County, Ontario; Raleigh County, WV; Orange County, NC; Bay and Clinton Counties, MI; Luzerne and Clinton Counties, PA; Greene and Orange Counties, NY; and Prince Georges County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Unsettled lower Lakes / Appalachians / East; drier farther west. A stationary front lies along the coastal mid-Atlantic into the Southeast and curves sharply northwestward toward the mid-MS Valley. High pressure over southern Canada extends into the Midwest / Ohio Valley. Summertime showers will occur near and south / east of the front, with generally drier weather west of the moutnains. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Gulf and south-Atlantic coasts into the Northeast. Mixed conditions are occurring for most of Sunday's transport events. Monday's events nearer the coasts and in the Northeast are the ones that feature the most favorable environments.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, August 12

Transport events move near-source and east and near-source and southwest. HIGH Risk in central and eastern NY, southern VT, western MA, CT, Long Island, northern NJ, and eastern PA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southeast PA, southern NJ, MD, DE, central and eastern WV, VA except the far southest, NC, and SC. Low Risk for northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL, central and southern GA, northeast TN, far southwest VA, central WV, southern ON, southeast MI, and western and northern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, August 13

Transport events track mostly near-source. HIGH Risk in southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, coastal SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, DE, MD, NJ, PA, all but northern NY, eastern Long Island, western CT and MA, and southern VT. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern WV, central and southwest VA, central NC, and central SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in central AL, central and northern GA, western SC and NC, northern OH, southern ON, and northwest PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 10, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: First reports from MA, WV, and Canada; new reports from NC, MI, PA, NY, and MD. CDM had been confirmed in Franklin County, MA; Haldimand-Norfolk County, Ontario; Raleigh County, WV; Orange County, NC; Bay and Clinton Counties, MI; Luzerne and Clinton Counties, PA; Greene and Orange Counties, NY; and Prince Georges County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from NY; new reports from PA, VA, MD, DE, IN, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Tompkins County, NY; Centre County, PA; Chesterfield County, VA; Wicomico County, MD; Sussex County, DE; Porter County, IN; and Muskegon County, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Typical August weather. A tale of two fronts ... one stationary astride the mid-South / Carolinas and another pushing into the Northeast / Ohio Valley. This second front will draw closer to the first, both serving as a focus for afternoon showers. Isolated to scattered showers for most locations on Friday will increase in number on Saturday as more moisture returns. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Most transport events move near-source and east, though there will be some transport west of a few locations. The most favorable conditions will be found in the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians Friday, shifting more toward the eastern mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 10

HIGH Risk in north-central and eastern TN, central and eastern KY, southern WV, and the mountains of VA / NC / SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, AL except the west-central, south-central TN, northwest and southwest VA, central and eastern PA, northern NJ, south-central and southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Low Risk for southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 11

HIGH Risk in eastern NC, central and eastern VA, MD, De, central and eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, western MA, CT, and far southern VT. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern WV, eastern TN and KY, southwest and far southwest VA, central and western NC, SC, southern and eastern GA, southern AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in south-central and east-central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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