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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 31, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 August: New reports from TN and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Lawrence County, TN; and Aiken County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 August: New reports from KY, NY, OH, NC, ON. CDM has been confirmed in Fayette County, KY; Genessee County, NY; Wayne County, OH; Yadkin County, NC; and Chatham-Kent County, ON. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Variable weather. One front is dissipating over the mid-Atlantic / Ohio Valley. Another is moving through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. The better chances of rain will be  from the mid-Atlantic southwestward through the mid-South and ahead of the front in the north. Scattered showers are possible just about anywhere else though some locales will be dry. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely many different areas. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition during the late week transport events will vary quite a bit from region to region and from day to day. Events near the Gulf Coast and in portions of the mid-Atlantic states and Great Lakes have the most favorable conditions. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will be encountered by many other transport events.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 31

HIGH Risk in southern MS, far southeast LA, southern 1/2 of AL, southwest GA, far eastern WV, MD, DE, far northern VA, NJ, and central and eastern PA . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern WI, the western UP of MI, central NY, KY except the west-central, TN except the east-central, southern WV, VA except the far north, NC, northwest SC, and the northern 1/2 of AL. Low Risk for SC except the northwest, northwest-central PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 1

HIGH Risk in the western FL panhandle, southern AL, central and southern MS, northeast TN, the NC mountains, southwest / western / northern VA, eastern WV, MD, DE, southern NJ, southern PA, central and northern MI, eastern WI, and the central UP of MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southwest GA, central and northern AL, northeast MS, eastern GA, SC, NC outside the mountains, south-central and eastern VA, eastern KY, southern OH, western WV, western and northern PA, and central and northern NJ. Low Risk to cucurbits in western TN and KY, IN, southern MI, southern ON, southern and southeast NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 24, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 24 August: New reports from IN, AL, WI, PA, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, IN; Shelby and Elmore Counties, AL; Dane County, WI; Chester County, PA; and Chautauqua, Allegany, Cattaraugus, and Tioga Counties, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 August: First report from CT; new reports from VA, PA, and WV. CDM has been confirmed in Hartford County, CT; Madison, Albemarle, and Montgomery Counties, VA; Blair County, PA; and Monroe and Monongalia Counties, WV. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Showers Southeast and Great Lakes / Ohio Valley; dry otherwise. Thursday marked the beginning of a much drier period and this will continue for at least the next several days. Canadian high pressure is wedging itself into the eastern U.S. / Canadian maritimes. The prior front is pinned near the Gulf Coast. Another small system is moving toward the Great Lakes / Midwest / Ohio Valley. Those features will trigger some showers. Dry and cooler weather will be found elsewhere. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Great Lakes. Transport events on Friday move near-source and northwest to north. Most of Saturday's events move northeast. The most favorable conditions will be found in and around the Great Lakes region.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 24

HIGH Risk in central WI, the western UP of MI, western IN, eastern IL, and western MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast IN, central MI, southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk for northwest OH, eastern MI, and far southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 25

HIGH Risk in eastern IN and the eastern half of lower MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western MI, western IN, far eastern IL, northern OH, southern ON, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southern GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern SC, northern WV, western PA, NY, southern WI, and far northern IL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, August 26, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 August: New reports from PA and KY. CDM has been confirmed in Columbia County, PA; and Caldwell County, KY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 24 August: New reports from IN, AL, WI, PA, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, IN; Shelby and Elmore Counties, AL; Dane County, WI; Chester County, PA; and Chautauqua, Allegany, Cattaraugus, and Tioga Counties, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Variable summer weather. High pressure sprawls over the eastern U.S. / southern Canada. Dry weather for most locales. There is a good chance of rain for parts of the upper Midwest (a nearby front) and near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered showers are possible elsewhere, mainly in the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes and the Appalachian mountains. Warming trend is ongoing, with highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s/70s (increasing to 70s).

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in WI. Conditions are most favorable nearest a front in the upper Midwest, which impact the events out of WI. A smattering of other transport events ... those potentially impacting parts of the Great Lakes, Northeast, the Appalachains, and the lower South ... will have slightly favorable to mixed conditions around them.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, August 26

HIGH Risk in eastern WI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southern GA. Low Risk for southern SC, the southern Appalachians, northern WV, northern MD, central and eastern PA, northern NJ, NY except the north and far west, southern VT, southwest NH, western MA, most of CT, northern IN, and western and central MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, August 27

HIGH Risk in southeast WI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern MI, western sections of southern ON, western NY, the southern Appalachian Mountains, southeast MS, the southern half of AL, southwest GA, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in southern SC, southeast GA, far northern WV, western MD, southern and eastern PA, and central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, August 28, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 August: New reports from KY, NY, OH, NC, ON. CDM has been confirmed in Fayette County, KY; Genessee County, NY; Wayne County, OH; Yadkin County, NC; and Chatham-Kent County, ON. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 August: New reports from PA and KY. CDM has been confirmed in Columbia County, PA; and Caldwell County, KY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled weather returns. The high pressure and associated fair weather that have been dominant over eastern North America will slowly give way to more unsettled weather during midweek. Clouds and rain accompany a cold front that impacts the Great Lakes / Midwest Tuesday, the Northeast / Ohio Valley Wednesday, and the mid-Atlantic / TN Valley on Thursday. Scattered showers occur in the Southeast each day. Most of the rest of the eastern U.S. is dry Tuesday and Wednesday; the chance of rain returns Thursday. Highs in the 90s Tuesday changing to 70s North to 90s South. Lows going from 70s to 50s North to 70s South.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Great Lakes and parts of the South. Transport events exhibit a strong tendency to the northeast and east with some staying near the source area. The most favorable conditions will naturally be found near the cold front, transitioning to mixed or slightly favorable for those events farther away. The recent dry weather in the eastern U.S. will likely subdue the impact of Thursday's transport events from those sources.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, August 28

HIGH Risk in eastern WI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern MI, coastal SC, east-central AL, southwest GA. Low Risk for northern and west-central AL, east-central and southeast GA, central SC, western and central NC, western and central VA, and southeast WV. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, August 29

HIGH Risk in central and southern MI, southern ON, westeern NY, northwest PA, northern and western OH, IN, western KY, southeast MS, southern AL, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western GA, central and northern AL, central TN and KY, northern WV, southern and eastern OH, and western PA. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern GA, eastern TN, the NC mountains, eastern KY, southwest VA, southern and central WV, central PA, central and northern NY, southern Quebec, and northern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, August 30

HIGH Risk in eastern KY, western WV, and southwest PA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southeast MS, AL, central and western GA, TN, western NC, western and central KY, western VA, eastern WV, western MD, central PA, and south-central NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in eastern GA, SC, central and eastern NC and VA, central and eastern MD, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, southern new Engalnd, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, August 21, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 August: First report from CT; new reports from VA, PA, and WV. CDM has been confirmed in Hartford County, CT; Madison, Albemarle, and Montgomery Counties, VA; Blair County, PA; and Monroe and Monongalia Counties, WV. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 August: First report from WI; new reports from MI, SC, and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Columbia County, WI; Allegan, Berrien, Newaygo, and Ingham Counties, MI; Chesterfield County, SC; Worcester County, MA; and Montour County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Wet weather Tuesday; drying Wednesday; dry Thursday. A major frontal system progresses through the U.S. / southern Canada during midweek. Clouds and showers encompass almost all areas Tuesday. Showers occur Wednesday in the mid-Atlantic / NE and parts of the adjoining regions as the cold front portion of the system nears the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Dry weather begins in earnest behind the front, becoming dominant on Thursday. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s and 60s with a decided cooling trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely for Tuesday's transport events and some of Wednesday's. Highly favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition are occurring on Tuesday during most events as they head east and northeast. Conditions improve on Wednesday; transport events track more near-source and east with the higher favorability toward the Northeast. Dramatic changes arrive by Thursday, when nearly all events are benign. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, August 21

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, the southern 1/2 of AL, southwest GA, far northwest SC, eastern TN, western NC, east-central and eastern KY, southwest / west / northern VA, WV, MD, DE, NJ, PA, CT, westeern MA, southern and west-central VT, all of NY, southern ON, OH, northern and eastern IN, and central and southern MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in north-central VT, central and southern NH, central and eastern MA, RI southeast VA, central and eastern NC, SC, and north-central and eastern GA. Low Risk for northern AL, south-central TN, far western ME, northern NH, and southern QE into parts of southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, August 22

HIGH Risk in central and eastern NY, central and eastern PA, most of NJ, Long Island, southern New England, southern and eastern NH, and western ME. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern NJ, DE, central and eastern MD and VA, eastern NC, and far northeast SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, southeast GA, southern SC, western NC, northeast TN, western and southwest VA, central and eastern WV, far western MD, western PA and NY, eastern OH, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, August 23

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast GA, and southern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in northeast SC and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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