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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 11, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Yazoo County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mainly unsettled weather. A low pressure / frontal system makes its way through east-central and eastern North America this period. Most of the rain or showers will fall in the coastal states and moreso Wednesday than Thursday. Wide range of temperatures with highs from the 50s to 80s, lows from the 40s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic, possible elsewhere. Conditions for many transport events will be mixed to favorable, which could lead to additional epidemic spread in some areas as the growing season draws nearer to a close. Transport events are moving near the sources and northeast on Wednesday, near-source and northwest on Thursday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA, eastern SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and NJ. Moderate Risk in the FL panhandle, southern AL, southwest GA, northwest NC, southwest and west-central VA, western MD, western WV, eastern KY, OH, central and southern MI, southern ON, and western and central PA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, central and western SC, central and western NC, western and southern NY, far northern PA, CT, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, central and southern MD, southern DE. Moderate Risk for NJ, southeast PA, northern MD, eastern WV, western VA, central and western NC, central and western SC, eastern GA, southern FL, and near the deep south TX source. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, southwest GA, northern WV, eastern OH, western NY, and western and central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 9, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Yazoo County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled, summer-like weather. An unseasonably warm, humid, and wet weather scenario unfolds early this week. Tropical Depression Nate moved rapidly through the mid-South and Ohio Valley yesterday. He continues on this pace today through the Northeast accompanied by clouds and rain. Meanwhile, a front in the central U.S. pushes east. Showers will occur in the soupy air mass over eastern North America behind Nate and ahead of the front. Quite warm with highs well into the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South and lower mid-Atlantic. Transport events are tracking near-source and north or northeast. The summer-like, almost tropical weather is providing favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Any dormant infections are experiencing a late-season revitalization and any active ones should remain active.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, MS, AL, GA, the Carolinas, VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Moderate Risk in central and southern FL, eastern KY, WV, eastern OH, PA, far northern VA, northern MD and DE, NJ, NY, and all the New England states except for central and eastern ME. Low Risk for cucurbits in western TN and western KY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southern MS, AL, GA, central TN, SC, NC, and southern VA. Moderate Risk for southern FL, KY, southern IN, and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern DE, far southern MD, eastern VA, and central and northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 6, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Yazoo County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dramatic transition from dry to wet. Rain around a front in the Plains / North, scattered showers in the far South, and dry weather elsewhere make Friday like previous days. Significant changes with widespread clouds and rain arrive this weekend. Moisture rapidly increases; the front moves into the east-central U.S.; and, Tropical Storm Nate, which moves into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, becomes a hurricane and makes landfall on the central Gulf Coast and heads northeast. Warm with highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South and possible elsewhere. The massive influx of favorable conditions from the south and west fuels a greatly increased chance of epidemic spread compared to recent times. Host availability and the antecedent dry conditions over most of the growing regions will initially temper risks on Saturday; risks will increase on Sunday. The higher risks will occur in the southern areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in northern FL, southern GA, northern IN, central and southern MI, northern OH, northern PA, western and central NY, MA, and southern VT and NH. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest GA, the eastern FL panhandle, and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk for southern and western SC, GA, the FL panhandle, AL, MS, western and central TN, western KY, IN, MI except the UP, southern ON, northwest OH. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NY, northwest PA, most of OH, northern KY, northern SC, and western and central NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, MS, AL, GA, SC, and western and central TN. Moderate Risk for western and central NC, the western half of VA, WV, northeast TN, KY, central and southern OH and IN. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast OH, PA, NY, southern QC, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, MD, DE, the eastern half of VA, and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 4, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 4 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Yazoo County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 2 October: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather; chance of rain mainly Plains and North. The persistent dry weather pattern remains in place for a few more days. High pressure sprawls over eastern North America. A cold front in the Midwest will move into the northern areas as its tail end stalls in the central Plains. Scattered showers will occur along the front and in parts of TX and FL.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in portions of the North and FL. Most transport events move southwest or northeast on Wednesday, and near-source or east on Thursday. Most events are benign. Showers in FL give rise to elevated risk there. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will occur near the southern and eastern Great Lakes. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 4

Moderate Risk in deep south TX, central and southern FL, northern IN, northern OH, southern MI, and southern ON. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, central MI, southern IN, central OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk for northern FL, northern IN, southwest and central MI. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern IN, OH, southeast MI, southern ON, northern WV, western NY, and western PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 2, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 October: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 25 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather with a chance of showers far South. High pressure anchored over southern Canada / eastern U.S. governs the weather, which is dry early this week under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Onshore flow in the lower Southeast and the western Gulf Coast and the presence of a dying stationary front will cause showers in those areas. Highs mostly 70s and 80s, lows mostly 40s and 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition dominate the situation. Only a few transport events in the lower Southeast and Gulf Coast regions produce any meaningful chance of epidemic spread. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 2

Moderate Risk in central FL, southwest MS, and northeast LA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast FL, southeast GA, southern SC, central and western AL, MS except the southwest, and near the TX sources. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 3

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, and east-central and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in far northeast FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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