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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 10, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

A very wet period. High pressure off the East Coast continues to pump moist air into the eastern U.S., and Hurricane Michael will make landfall today on the FL panhandle and trek northeastward aross GA and the Carolinas. This happens ahead of a strong auturm cold front moving toward the East Coast. Rain encompasses the whole of eastern North America from the Gulf to southern Canada, with the heaviest along the track of Michael. Highs in the 70s and 80s / lows 60s and 70s, droppping to the 50s-70s / 40s-60s behind the front.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along and near Michael's path. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition will be particularly favorable in the Southeast and nearby sections of the eastern Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states. A marked change comes behind the midweek weather situation.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 10

HIGH Risk for west-central and northern FL, the FL panhandle, AL, GA, SC, NC, southern VA, central and eastern TN, and southeastern KY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast MS / nearby AL, western TN, western and northern KY, southern IN and OH, WV, central and northern VA, MD, DE, and southern NJ. Low Risk for lower MI, central and northern IN and OH, southern ON, PA, NY, central and northern NJ, Long Island, southern New England, southern VT and NH, and southern ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 11

HIGH Risk for northeast SC, central and eastern NC, central and eastern VA, and southern MD. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL, GA, SC except the northeast, western NC, northeast TN, eastern KY, southern WV, southwest and western VA, central MD, DE, central and southern NJ. Low Risk to cucurbits in western MD, northern WV, eastern OH, PA, northern NJ, NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH, and the southern 1/2 of ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, October 7, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Showers possible many areas. High pressure centered roughly off the mid-Atlantic coast and the work-week front is sturng out over the Nroth. Southern and central sectdions of eastern North America will be sunny to partly cloudy with dry ewather in some sport snad scattered shwoers in others. The front re-aligns to southern Canada / central U.S. and the High asserts itself more strongly during the early week period. A tropical system approaches the Gulf Coast mid-week. Continued hot, with highs in the 70s and 80s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible many locations. Transport events are directionally driven by the high pressure situated off the coast. Conditions will be mixed in a few cases, slightly favorable for many others.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, October 7

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern SC and southeast GA. Low Risk for southwest GA, the FL panhandle, western VA and NC, TN, western KY, eastern IA, northern IL, southern WI, southern MI, northern OH and IN, southern ON, PA, southern NY, NJ, northern MD and DE, southern New England, and southern NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, October 8

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southwest GA, the FL panhandle, southern AL, southeast MS, eastern SC, and southeast NC. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern AL, south-central TN, western SC, northeast TN, NC except the southeast, VA, eastern IA, southern WI, northern IL, lower MI, northern IN and OH, southern ON, PA, NY, NJ, VT, western MA, CT, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, October 9

HIGH Risk for west-central FL and the FL panhandle, southeast MS, southern AL, southwest GA, and eastern SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western NC, central and western SC, central and northeast GA, central AL and MS, northern and eastern LA, and southern AL. Low Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern NC, central and southwest VA, northwest GA, northern AL and MS, eastern AR, western TN and KY, southeast MO, eastern IA, IL, western and northern IN, WI, and lower MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 5, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Generally dry; active parts of North and Central. A front wobbles over the mid-Atlantic / Ohio Valley / Midwest on Friday. It breaks apart and forms a more well-defined front on Saturday that runs from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. The substantial precipitation falls near the fronts, especially from the Great Lakes through the Midwest. Hot, with highs most areas in the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible North and Central. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition are slightly favorable in most cases, mixed in some others in the central sections. Transport events track in a variety of directions.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 5

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern KY, and central TN. Low Risk for the coastal NC, western NC, eastern TN, western and southwest VA, southern WV, southeast KY, IN, western and northern OH, southern ON, central and southern MI, southern WI, far northern IL, and eastern IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 6

Moderate Risk to cucurbits near the LA source, and in most of SC, all but northeast NC, southwest VA, southern WV, eastern KY, and northeast TN. Low Risk to cucurbits in southwest AL, southern MS, southeast IA, northern IL, southern WI, central and northern IN, central and southern MI, central and northern OH, southern ON, western and central PA, all but southeast NY, and VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, October 2, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled North; mixture of dry weather and scattered showers Central and South. High pressure dominates most areas and a front cowavers around the North. That general theme persists through midweek. Another front introduces itself on Thursday. Continued warm / very warm with highs well into the 70s and 80s, lows from the 50s to 70s, with few exceptions.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in several regions. Transport events track generally northeast during midweek, under the influence of high pressure centered off the coast. Conditions for epidemic spread vary. The better chances occur in the southern Ohio Valley / southern  Appalachians and in parts of the South.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, October 2

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, northeast MS, northwest AL, TN, KY, southern IN, and southern OH. Low Risk for the western panhandle, southern AL, the mountains of NC / VA, WV, eastern IA, far northern IL, southern WI, central and southern MI, southern ON, central and southern IN and OH, PA, NY, northern MD, DE, NJ, Long Island, southern New England, VT, and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, October 3

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast TN, western NC, southwest VA, and far southern WV. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast LA, southern MS, far southern AL, the western FL panhandle, northwest VA, WV, far western  MD, southwest PA, eastern IA, southern WI, northern IN and OH, lower MI, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, October 4

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in KY, southern IN and OH, and western WV. Low Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL, near the LA source, eastern IA, southern WI, northern IL, central and southern MI, northern and central IN and OH, southern ON, central and eastern WV, far northern VA, northern and central MD, DE, PA, NY, NJ, western MA, and VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 30, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Wetter North and South; drier with a few showers in between. Slow-moving / stalled fronts near the Gulf Coast and over the northern U.S. provide the foci for rainfall late this weekend into early next week. As the southern front washes out, moisture creeps northward and creates a chance of showers in the mid-South / Ohio Valley. Warm and warming temperatures; highs in the 60s to 80s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely near the Gulf Coast. Transport events move east to northeast Sunday, and a variety of directions on Monday. Conditions are most favorable in the South, especially near the Gulf Coast. Minimal risks for much of the East Coast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 30

HIGH Risk for southeast MS, ,southern AL, southern GA, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern LA, far southern AR, east-central AL, central and northern GA, far western SC, and western NC. Low Risk for eastern IA, southern WI, northern IL, central and southern MI, far northern IN and OH, southern ON, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, October 1

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast and southeast LA, southeast MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, far southern SC, southwest NC, eastern TN, east-central KY, and southwest OH. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, central and northern AL, northeast MS, western and central TN and KY, IN, northern IL, eastern IA, southern WI, central and southern MI, OH except the southwest, southern ON, western PA, NY except the north and southeast, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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