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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, August 1, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 1 August: First report from TN; new reports from NC, NJ, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, TN; Hunterdon County, NJ; Wicomico County, MD; and Haywood, Henderson, and Burke Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: First report from MI; new report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Berrien County, MI; and Chowan County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Unsettled weather. The early-week front stretches from southern New England down through the southern Appalachains and into the lower MS Valley. The front has stalled and will wobble around the mid-Atlantic / mid-South. Sunny to partly cloudy skies give way to scattered to numerous showers and storms along and south of the front each day. High pressure to the north will keep much of the northern areas dry. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows 60s and 70s. Unsettled weather is likely to persist in most of the East through the weekend and into next week.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Increasingly favorable weather for epidemic spread envelopes the transport events on Thursday and Friday. Thursday's events move mostly near the sources. Friday's events track near-source and/or curve to the north. Drier weather to the north yields unfavorable conditions for the MI and MA transport events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, August 1

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, west-central and southwest GA, the southern Appalachian Mountains, northeast SC, and southeast NC. Low Risk in the FL peninsula, southern and central SC, central and northeast NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, far southeast PA, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, August 2

HIGH Risk in the eastern FL panhandle, southeast AL, southwest GA, SC, NC, southern and eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, and most of southeast PA. Moderate Risk in the western FL panhandle, AL except the southeast and far north, northern and eastern GA, eastern TN, NJ, eastern PA except parts of the southeast, and south-central NY. Low risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 29, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: First report from MI; new report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Berrien County, MI; and Chowan County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 July: New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Wayne County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Transition from drier to wetter. A cold front now in the nation's midsection moves eastward reaching the Appalachian Mountains by Wednesday. After a sunny and dry day Monday for most areas the chance of rain will increase. This happens first in the Northeast on Tuesday and in the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Showers are possible in a few locations well ahead of the front. Most of the Southeast stays dry. Highs mostly in the 90s, lows mostly in the 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely southwest MI, possible parts of the East. Transport are going near-source and northeast in most cases. Conditions are favorable today in the Great Lakes in association with the front. Eastern sections have a few events Monday and Tuesday that show slightly favorable to mixed conditions. Those increase on Wednesday as the front nears.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 29

HIGH Risk in southwest MI. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in eastern MA, southeast NH, and southern ME. Low Risk in central MI, east-central AL, and the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 30

Low risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, and in east-central AL, NJ, northern DE, far eastern PA, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, July 31

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central AL, NJ, far southeast PA, Long Island, CT, RI, eastern MA, southern ME. Low risk in the FL peninsula, part of southern AL, central and eastern SC and NC, southeast VA, eastern MD, and DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, July 27, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 July: New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Wayne County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 25 July: New reports from SC, NC, and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Lexington County, SC; New Hanover County, NC; and Elmore County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Dry weather continues. High pressure now centered over the eastern U.S. controls the weather for the next several days. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy. Showers are possible in the lower Southeast (near the stalled front) and in parts of the Northeast. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows 60s to low 70s, with a slow warming trend.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Any epidemic spread will occur fairly near a few known sources under slightly favorable to mixed conditions. Transport events follow the flow around the High, those in the South moving more southwest, those in the North moving more northeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, July 27

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and southeast GA. Low Risk in the FL western panhandle, southwest AL, southeast MS, central and southern FL, eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, eastern MA, southern NH, and far southeast ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, July 28

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and southeast GA. Low risk in central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, July 25, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 July: New reports from SC, NC, and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Lexington County, SC; New Hanover County, NC; and Elmore County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 20 July: New reports from SC and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Horry County, SC; and Escambia County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Dry and seasonably cool with showers in the lower Southeast. High pressure translating from the Ohio Valley to the eastern U.S. governs the weather along the East Coast. The early-week front has come to a halt over northern FL. Scattered showers occur in the lower Southeast as a result. Highs in the 80s, lows mostly in the 60s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. The transport events of interest (those coming out of the lower Southeast) tend to track near-source and west / southwest each day. The opportunities for epidemic spread are limited to those near-source areas and locations very near the central Gulf Coast. Unfavorable conditions dominate all other events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, July 25

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and far southern GA. Low Risk in central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, July 26

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and far southern GA. Low risk in central and southern FL, southwest GA, the FL panhandle, far southern AL, far southeast MS, and far southeast LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 22, 2019



*** Epidemic Update - 20 July: New reports from SC and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Horry County, SC; and Escambia County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 18 July: New report from NJ. CDM has been confirmed in Gloucester County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***
 

Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Active, transitional period. A significant change in the upper-level pattern will drive an unseasonably strong frontal system through the eastern U.S. over the next several days. Clouds, showers, and rain will impact the Northeast and upper mid-Atlantic on Monday, all the Eastern states on Tuesday, and the Southeast on Wednesday. High pressure from Canada builds in after the front passes accompanied by cooler, drier weather. Hot temperatures with highs / lows in the 90s/70s drop dramatically behind the front to 70s-80s / 50s-60s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely. On Monday and Tuesday ... transport events track east or northeast. Favorable conditions progress south and east with the front. The greatest impacts will be on Tuesday when growing areas from New England to FL will be at High Risk. On Wednesday ... many events move south / southwest as the winds shift behind the front. The more favorable weather is confined to the Southeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 22

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southwest GA, and southern AL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central AL, west-central GA, Long Island, CT, RI, MA, and southern NH. Low Risk on the FL peninsula, north-central and eastern GA, southern and eastern SC, eastern NC and VA, southern and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, and southeast NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 23

HIGH Risk in central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern 1/2 GA, eastern SC and NC, southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, central and southern NJ, and southeast MA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL. Low risk for northern NJ, Long Island, southern CT, RI, and central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, July 24

HIGH Risk in the eastern FL panhandle and southern GA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and eastern SC. Low risk for central and southern FL, the western panhandle, south-central GA, eastern NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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