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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 29, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Unsettled many areas. Showers and/or rain will occur from southern TX and LA northeastward into the Carolinas along a stationary front. Another front moves into the South on Tuesday, joining the stationary front and nudging it farther south. Locations to the northwest and southeast of the initial front, near OK/AR and FL, will be largely dry on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers are possible on Tuesday. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. The various transport events tend to move slowly near the sources. The more favorable weather conditions for epidemic spread should be removed from the transport events, suppressing chances of epidemic spread. Localized / short-range spread is possible near the TX and southern FL sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 29

Low Risk for southern FL and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 30

Low Risk to cucurbits in deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew acheterdufrance.com Forecasts - Friday, May 26, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Dry Friday; unsettled northern and western sections Saturday and Sunday. High pressure in the wake of this week's strong frontal system will produce sunny, dry weather on Friday. A developing front will approach the northern sections of the South on Saturday. Scattered showers and storms will occur from OK to NC while the southern areas remain dry. Showers are possible most areas on Sunday as the western end of the front sags to the south and the eastern side stays in place. Dry much of the Southeast on Sunday.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Sunny, dry, and hot conditions will dominate the transport events of the next 3 days. None of the events approach other growing areas. Localized disease development is possible in far southern FL.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 26

Moderate Risk in far southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 27

Low Risk to cucurbits in far southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 28

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 24, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Active weather East; dry West. The cold front continues its trek east today and Thursday. Widespread rain and storms will impact areas east of the MS River, mainly toward the Southeast. High pressure in the central U.S. should keep western sections of the South day. Highs in the 70s to 90s, low in the 50s to 70s, warmest South-central.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Transport events from FL and GA move rapidly northeast for one more day. Conditions are favorable for survivable transport and deposition of airborne spores, and long-range epidemic spread is posssible. Thursday's events from these sources move quickly east as winds shift with the passing front. The threat of epidemic spread should be confined to the FL peninsula. Conditions during these events vary greatly, the more favorable being in southern FL. The TX events are benign.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 24

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, southeast GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk for southern FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 25

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in far southern FL. Moderate Risk for east-central FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL and northern sections of southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 22, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Active weather. One cold front is moving very slowly across the South. Another cold front will swing into the South from the northwest on Tuesday, perpetuating the active weather. Skies will be variably to mostly cloudy. Widespread rains will occur across the entirety of the region, some of it heavy. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Attention is on the transport events coming out of FL and GA. Conditions during these northeast-moving events wll be mixed on Monday, favorable on Tuesday. There is a distinct possibility of epidemic spread up the Atlantic coast into the lower mid-Atlantic region. The TX events do not show much movement. Conditions are favorable enough for low levels of risk around the source region.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 22

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, southern GA, and southern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern SC, southeast NC, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 23

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA and southern SC. Moderate Risk for northern FL, central and eastern SC, and south-central and southeast NC. Low Risk to cucurbits in central FL, northeast NC, southeast VA, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 19, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Transitioning to a prolonged period of unsettled weather. A slow-moving frontal system treks slowly west to east during the next several days. Widespread rain begins today in OK / TX and expands into the central and eastern sections of the South Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the 80s and 90s Friday cooling into the 70s and 80s Saturday and Sunday. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible. As the weather increases in favorability each day, so will the chance of epidemic spread. Sunday's transport events, which curve to the north from the Southeast's sources and plod west from southern TX, draw the most attention. Should any rain fall at the sources on Friday and Saturday (which is expected in the Southeast), it will revitalize any field infections that may have become dormant due to recent dry weather. Risk to cucurbits will lag behind the day-to-day environment until this happens. Epidemic spread into the interior Southeast is also possible on Saturday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 19

Low Risk to cucurbits in west-central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 20

Low Risk to cucurbits in FL except the northeast and east-central areas, and in western and central GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 21

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in deep south TX. Low Risk to cucurbits in deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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